Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Feb 14 6 tweets 4 min read
#AuraEnergy initial #uranium reserve expansion, we expect this to move from 30mlbs to over 70mlb within the next 30 months. In the next few weeks expect the initial substantial lift in NPV as the project capacity increases to 3mlbs and the AISC falls to around $20. $AEE
30mlb reserve NPV at $75 pricing = A$400m or 60c per share

70mlb NPV = A$1.0bn or $1.30 per share

$AEE #uranium
Swedish assets with pro #uranium mining add another $2-5 per share NPV through 2027.

Note the $2 per share value in #molybdenum, #Vanadium, #nickel
And #zinc at current spots alone.

$AEE #auraenergy
Upside above what the market understands:

Nearology expansion at Tiris > 5x resource = additional $1 in NPV

The drop in AISC on higher capacity -30%

The low grade resource, that has a low cost enhancement, puts it on par with high grade

#uranium
#AuraEnergy
$AEE $AURA.L
When does low grade #uranium become high grade? Tiris $AEE, if you don't understand this, then you have a knowledge deficit, which requires more reading to understand why this uranium stock will outperform the sector. #auraenergy
Incorrect statements made about #AuraEnergy
- Tiris low grade (not post beneficiation)
- Tiris NPV is low (not when you calculate on the full resource and add in the nearology ground)
- Non aligned mgmt (complete board change out in the last 18 months)
- Swedish ban (removal 2Q)

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More from @BULLReturns

Feb 14
Sentiment is dictated by stockprice direction for many, we engage the opportunity view, $15m cap Vs 2027 NPV potential of $2bn, is worth putting in the work, if survivability occurs with moderate dilution then = 20x bagger. Most don't have the stomach for the required work. $AHQ
Likely the major holder Regal is dumping their position, we will see in the filings. 1Q - 2Q 2023 was always the timeframe required to evaluate optimization potential on $AHQ, now it's time to do the work.

With the likelihood of very dilutive cap raise, we are watching this.
Short term selling liquidity = voting machine

Medium Term Liquidity = weighing machine

A great case study on assessing the weighing Vs voting outcome.

Avoid the emotions, do the work, be patience, turnarounds are higher risk than cycle bottoms.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
Thought of the day: A lifestyle explorer mining company is something to generally avoid, look for the following characteristics, CEO's earning over $300k, G&A exceeding 25% of annual spend, G&A exceeding 10% of cap. Alignment of interests are key for returns.
In our previous activist wins we faced the following:
- the stupidity of retail believing existing mgmt when G&A exceeds 35% of cap & the CEO receiving up to 18% of cap (top performing fund managers are receiving less than 3% of AUM).
- being attacked by the old mgmt teams
Often if 20-30% of the register votes for positive change, this is often sufficient in bring a stop to lifestyle mining explorers mining retail investors wallets.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
Thought of the day: Calling yourself right when the return horse race is not past the 500 metre mark is premature to say the least. The extremely negative rear vision mirror often turns into 20 baggers. Knowing the difference is the key.
Top to bottom of high cyclicality situations are often -95% plus....

Bottom to Top of the most misread cycle bottoms can be >30x...

The closer to bankruptcy, the lower the cap near the cycle bottom, the higher the cycle return.

$BTU 80c to $40?
$RIG 65c to $20?
A startup turnaround in a peaking #coal market is a great case study to cut ones teeth on: $AHQ

Cap < $20m Vs Full NPV potential in 5yrs of > $2bn

Bleeding cashflow, looks terminal, can mgmt turn this around in the next 3-4 months?
- Dilution likely to extend the runway
Read 5 tweets
Jan 13
Thought of the day: When in the eye of the bear market storm, ask yourself, 4-7 yrs out, is the asset price then 8x + of today's value? Will cashflows be materially higher? Will price drivers be materially higher? Will demand be materially higher? Will negativity have flipped?
Scaling in is the best option to secure one's future returns near a cycle bottom, our 8x threshold often can go to 20x, the avg deployed return being around 14x.
The difference between -96% and -97.5% scaled in entry points washes out when up 15-20x.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 12
#AURAENERGY $AEE approaching it's 9 month high, only 15% off it's 36 month high with a massive upgrade in NPV incoming....

Sub $20lb AISC on 3mlbs of capacity with project implementation 18 months = 200% catch up relative to peer group valuations over the next 15 months.
This #uranium case study for us started back in 2018, cap low in 2019 was around $6m....

On entry we valued the opportunity at around 15x avg entry price.

This has been upgraded as further research has lead us to much higher resource levels at Tiris on lower AISC assumptions...
....also we believe the Swedish assets will have significantly higher valuation impact than applied to the original valuations.

For Tiris the nearology resource expansion will likely be material Vs the current 56mlb (5x is possible), that can push the full NPV up to A$2bn.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 10
Understanding balance sheet liquidity runways from cashflow cycle lows is key to selecting the multi baggers...

$BTU 80c to >$40 post buy backs & dividends kicking in >30x

$RIG 60c to >$15 >20x due to massive operating cashflow build up through 2026, debt duration push out etc
$BTU 2020 operating CF compared to 2023 > 15x

$RIG 2021 operating CF compared to 2026 > 6x
We purchased both at near cycle lows in 2H 2020.

We are replicating those themes in 2023 in:

#bitcoin miners

#preciousmetal stocks

Selected #cyclical low themes
Read 4 tweets

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