Thread by @TheStudyofWar

NEW: The #Kremlin will likely subsume elements of #Belarus’ defense industrial base (DIB) as part of Moscow’s larger effort to reequip the Russian military to support a protracted war against #Ukraine.

Latest campaign assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar021723

2/ Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko stated during a meeting with #Putin in Moscow on February 17 that #Belarus’ aerospace industry is ready to produce Su-25 ground attack aircraft for the Russian military with the support of Russian technology transfers.

3/ #Lukashenko stated that the Belarusian state-run Minsk Automobile Plant began making components to support Russian KAMAZ (a Russian heavy-duty truck producer) products & expressed willingness to help #Russia produce electronic components to substitute for lost Western imports.

4/ #Lukashenko additionally stated that #Belarus is implementing 100 percent of unspecified defense and security cooperation agreements that Belarus and #Russia agreed to “three months ago.”

5/ Su-25s and truck parts are likely not critical material for the success of #Russia’s long-term war effort. The #Kremlin may commandeer Belarusian factories and retool them to produce critical materiel that the Russian military needs, #Lukashenko’s statements notwithstanding.

6/ The Russians might also seek to repurpose Russian factories currently involved in or tooled for the production of Su-25s and trucks to produce more urgently needed materiel in #Russia.

6/ @TheStudyofWar previously assessed that Russian forces began using Belarusian training grounds and trainers to train mobilized Russians to compensate for #Russia's degraded training capacity.

7/ The #Kremlin appears to be similarly incorporating elements of #Belarus’ defense industrial base (DIB) to augment Russian defense output as #Putin seeks to reinvigorate #Russia’s DIB to support a protracted war with #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar021723