Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Lukashenko also confirmed that #Belarus has implemented more Union State integration programs - marking progress in the #Kremlin’s steady pressure campaign to formalize the Russian-Belarusian Union State across decades. 🧵(1/6)

isw.pub/UkrWar021723

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1626755361339326464

2/ #Lukashenko stated on February 17 that #Russia and #Belarus implemented 80 percent of the 28 Union State programs including programs on customs and tax – a significant achievement in the #Kremlin’s campaign to formalize the Union State.

3/ #Lukashenko has historically resisted implementing the Union State integration programs by stalling specifically on complex customs and tax harmonization issues since at least 2019.

4/ #Lukashenko’s statement that #Belarus has finally ratified Union State programs on customs and tax issues, therefore, marks a significant Russian gain. Lukashenko stated that the remaining unimplemented Union State programs concern humanitarian issues.

5/ #Lukashenko is likely paying for his rejection of #Putin’s larger demand for Belarusian forces to join the invasion against #Ukraine by making smaller concessions that he has stonewalled for years, as @TheStudyofWar has previously assessed.

6/ #Lukashenko’s belated concessions and continued refusal to commit Belarusian forces to the Russian invasion indicate Lukashenko’s determination to keep Belarusian forces from directly participating in the Russian war. isw.pub/UkrWar021723