Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Thread about #Prigojine #Prigozhin's "evolution" lately & last stance against #Russian MoD & even an indirect shot against #Putin

so.. this morning every one had the opportunity to read about this (complaints made by #WagnerPMC ) on the lack of ammo :

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1628182789928681472

2/ so Wagner founder Yevgeny #Prigozhin today said (going all out!) : "These are the guys who died yesterday due to shell starvation" in #Ukraine.
He claims the "treasonous" Russian ministry of defence has stopped sending ammo to #Wagner forces.

3/ as i am not sure a lot of people out there might realize, but we are not in our "democracies" here. Saying so and doing so he has crossed a line.

first thing first, just a reminder: like i explained when war began and Bucha occurred & accounts of children being raped i

4/ explained (knowing quite well how it can go in Russia) that the perpetrators of such crimes, could receive medals & be praised on the Bucha case, because it was "political" for Russia to show that their soldiers did nothing wrong, on the contrary, to (in the case of different

5/ other cases of child being rape) being caught & imprisoned for 10 years in a terrible penitentiary kind of Goulag settlement, or just being trialed but few days later, the guy would be found dead, in a ditch, after being beaten to death.
So what i mean is there is no rules in

Russia, yet, there are very strong "rules" (because it's a mafiosi kind of state).
so back to #Prigozhin : the billionaire founder of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, has accused unspecified officials of depriving his fighters of sufficient ammunition as part of an ongoing

7/ rivalry between himself and part of Russia's elite. (he is doing so now for a while, playing his own mastery of deception & manipulation, showing himself as the man of the people, the little guy against the "elite") in this Russia's months-long battle for the city of #Bakhmut.

8/ So In a seven-minute audio message released Monday by his press service, #Prigozhin, apparently angry & very emotional (contrary to what he usually shows), said he had to "apologize and obey" (he recall the time he was literally scking dck in prison : i'm very serious here)

9/ so for him to become such a successful figure, with so much power & who was ready to deliver his "masterpiece" =conquer #Bakhmut, he really really took it personally to be so much "belittle" by all Army "classic" institution & "failed" for the one year mark of the RU spe ops

10/ so first he just said he needed more ammunition for his fighters..., that was the "entire" story. there was no more. Then because nothing came as usual (actually he received a strong rebuttal by army explaining his "troops" has received actually 1,5 more ammo relative to the

11/ number of troops... So he booked his harshest criticisms to the Russian Defense Ministry (i would say as usual & what is very much admitted actually when you just says it the way he usually said it), but then he raised the bar .. he accused Ru MOD of trying to take credit for

12/ #Wagner's battlefield achievements. In his audio message, #Prigozhin said the unspecified people he blamed for the ammo shortage "ate breakfast, lunch and dinner from golden plates" and sent their loved ones on vacation to Dubai, a popular destination. for the Russian elite.

13/ So now, of course, the entire Ru mil "establishments" who did not give a flying fck about the bald prick, before that, started to get really pissed of... really. and now they are ready to directly answer him, because as much as they can "admit" his "bravades" they know that

14/ first of all it is absolutely ridiculous to let him said that he does everything on the field as the army make 95% of what his little "troops" is doing on a specific location. (1,5 millions people working for this war in Russia & in Ukraine now), but also as #Prigozhin has

15/ been one of Defense Minister Sergei #Shoigu's most vocal critics, insisting that his own men are far more effective than the regular army, but now he is crossing the line of personnal moral attack. not only like a dog barking in the wind
it has escalated to an all other level

16/ now he is talking about "treason" about people that should have to "pay" about war profiteer who are eating (taking the money) of poor guys, instead of sending them food.
so right now he is no more simply sending papers to show his ammo requests (or deaths) like this one

17/ he even said that he was not invited to Putin's dry speech today and that he, a real patriot had no time anyway because he cared more about what was really going on was busy storming office after office looking looking for ammo to give his beloved men to capture #Bakhmut.

18/ this morning - his group - was directly communicating like this :
"not every commander, general will come to his fighters. though to the dead, he will come to stay and honor them."

19/ So his first move, while being "smart" (putting pressure all the time on MOD to have more and more) finally gets to his head. he is not seeing clearly what is happening now on "macro" pov. he’s totally dependent on the MOD for ammo and most fire support. so his "melt down" is

20/ even more ridiculous.
also other commanders are asking and experiencing right now a real "shortage" of ammo like : A. Khodakovsky, commander of the #Vostok Batallion wrote :
"Ammo supply was lowered to general norms, which didn't allow them to get the desired results. (..)"

21/ but back to Prigozhin/ talking about treason is exactly like him showing the hammer and menacing people saying they should maybe received the famous "treatment" he keeps for traitors.
that's another level...

22/ so the last point i want to make now, & back to first point about everything can happen in Russia.
what could happen from now on.
-Putin calls Prigozhin & ask to stop right now, as this is becoming stupid, & you'll see that everything we'll go back to "normal" soon.

-Putin gets mad because of very specific threats and because his best friend Shoigu is under attack, and then send people with direct strong "message" to stop it right there or "else" like he did for several oligarch in the past & don't even give him a phone call. meaning you r

24/ a dog. nothing more. get that quick or you won't live long. (i also got a story of a Ru banker i got to tell you one day)

- but if you see Prigozhin still going on like that simply unhinge, it would mean that something diff is brewing. like a "play" a narrative to say it

25/ was something not under our "control" the lack of ammo, that Russia is not taking #Bakhmut
(but i don't believe it's the case though because of the words and meanings that were used & how emotional he was & targeted "rich people")

So on the army side now, if Putin wants

26/ to act as point 1, he will say the same to the army, and they'll all go on the same way... (Russians are actually very use to big screams and threats when they are all drunk - what Putin hates)

Or, from now on, they do really have personal hates towards Prigozhin & what

27/ could happen next in close future goes from an "accident" like his car exploding on a mine, or even worse (someone could send his locations to @ServiceSsu for example, to let them now, where when he could be "hit" for good...

i told you, in Russia for this singular scenario

28/ because it's a mafioso demokratur (i remeber 5 years ago when i was using this expression & how some "specialists" would deny it so strongly.. lmao for the last year... anyway) you can end up with a medal (like losing Kherson)

29/ and put back in the "system" like absolutely nothing happened (because of friendships & because you are a good "dog" or you can end up in a ditch, with hands/dick cut, even your kids killed in front of you...and bullet in the forehead...

let's see now, how it goes...
END

30/ just some additional materials for future ref :
he was also denied for a while to be able to recruit like a mad man, but it is slightly changing now. it was not only because of lack of recruits (even if true for a good part)
theguardian.com/world/2023/feb…

31/

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1628291488772763648

32/ showing he was supposedly even more respectful of Ukrainians than to a lot of his ru "brothers"

https://twitter.com/IuliiaMendel/status/1627738088163184644

33/ and what Wagner he really doing to the ones who are moving the way they want... much more violent even toward traitors.
"his victories" are only made on huge numbers of assault troops and artillery..
so he can brag as much as he wants, Ru mil knows.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627698064164065285

34/ Apparently #Wagner received tonight the support of some officials on RU TV and they are glad to show on their TG channels
So it seems as right now, #Prigozhin is not "persona non grata" yet

35/ update :
the most probable cause happened : someone called #Prigozhin directly on #Putin's order & made it very clear that if he continues on this path he would be obliterated / killed like the simple pig he is.

NB. if Russia lose big - they will get rid of him (bc politics