The Kremlin may be preparing false flag attacks on the #Chernihiv Oblast international border to coerce #Belarus into the war following Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko's February 16 statement that Belarus would only enter the war if attacked by #Ukraine. (1/4)
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1628940273886568450
2/ The Belarusian Ministry of Defense also notably claimed on February 21 that Belarusian forces observed a buildup of Ukrainian forces at its borders. isw.pub/UkrWar022323
3/ @TheStudyofWar continues to assess that Belarusian or Russian attack on northern Ukrainian regions is highly unlikely, but #Russia seeks to force #Lukashenko’s hand or blame #Ukraine for expanding the war to undermine support for Kyiv.
4/ Such a false flag operation could also aim to fix Ukrainian forces at the northern border in an effort to weaken Ukrainian defenses in eastern #Ukraine and preparations for counter-offensive operations. isw.pub/UkrWar022323
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