Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻c 💰
Macro Review 2/26/23

🧵 1/8

If the #macro picture has been unclear, it has just come clearly into focus.

I am going to keep it simple this week -
crash risk is rising ⚠️🚩

Let’s dig into the market 🧮!

2a/8

It’s all about the $USD 🎳

On 2/10, we got a confirmed buy signal in the USD along with sell signals in $SPX and $TLT

2b/8

Since then, we got a hot #CPI reading on 2/14 with #CoreCPI to +5.4% and on Friday 2/24 #CorePCE came in ♨️ at +4.7%

Chart: Core PCE for January 2023

2c/8

That was a enough to catalyze a big move in the $USD +1.33% (w) and +3.18% (mtd)

$USD 🔺 = 🎳

Chart: The ’tell’ was a week ago with a confirmed close above the 50% fib retracement level

3/8

$TNX transitioned to ♉️ trend on 02/21, climbed above the critical 3.91% level and closed at 3.949%

$TNX 🔺 is NOT ♉️ for risk assets

4/8

Indeed, $SPX -2.67% (w) with 🐻 Trend 🚨 gave up the critical 4,000 support level.

Chart: $SPX - a quick move ↘️ to the 3765 - 3810 range cannot be ruled out. #CrashRiskRising

5/8

Another ominous tell - $VIX with a ♉️ Trend 🚨
Still priced cheaply relative to the risk

6/8

$DAX, which has been amazingly resilient and still ♉️ trend, with a SELL 🚨 this week.

Chart: DAX -1.76% (w) +4.6% (T)

7a/8

$WHEAT -5.73% (w) and $CORN -4.21% (w) were enough to trigger a $DBA SELL 🚨

Chart: $DBA remains ♉️ trend, but perhaps not for long.

7b/8

Your favorite risk indicator, $BTC is on the verge of a SELL 🚨

Chart: $BTC -4.52% (w)

7c/8

$WTIC -0.3 (w) is still chopping around in a tight range between 72-82 🐻

7d/8

Is there a Doctor in the house?

$COPPER -3.89% (w) is confirming trouble ahead for the world economy

8/8

All that is to say that it is time to take cover 🌪️, if you have not already done so

#CrashRiskRising

Add to long $USD on pullbacks

Add to 🩳 on any bounces

$VIXM remains cheap - get some 🌊

$BILS at 5% yield - why wait?

⚠️🚩 and have a super profitable 💰 week!