Ted Darling Profile picture
Feb 26 13 tweets 5 min read
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻c 💰
Macro Review 2/26/23

🧵 1/8

If the #macro picture has been unclear, it has just come clearly into focus.

I am going to keep it simple this week -
crash risk is rising ⚠️🚩

Let’s dig into the market 🧮!
2a/8

It’s all about the $USD 🎳

On 2/10, we got a confirmed buy signal in the USD along with sell signals in $SPX and $TLT Image
2b/8

Since then, we got a hot #CPI reading on 2/14 with #CoreCPI to +5.4% and on Friday 2/24 #CorePCE came in ♨️ at +4.7%

Chart: Core PCE for January 2023 Image
2c/8

That was a enough to catalyze a big move in the $USD +1.33% (w) and +3.18% (mtd)

$USD 🔺 = 🎳

Chart: The ’tell’ was a week ago with a confirmed close above the 50% fib retracement level Image
3/8

$TNX transitioned to ♉️ trend on 02/21, climbed above the critical 3.91% level and closed at 3.949%

$TNX 🔺 is NOT ♉️ for risk assets Image
4/8

Indeed, $SPX -2.67% (w) with 🐻 Trend 🚨 gave up the critical 4,000 support level.

Chart: $SPX - a quick move ↘️ to the 3765 - 3810 range cannot be ruled out. #CrashRiskRising Image
5/8

Another ominous tell - $VIX with a ♉️ Trend 🚨
Still priced cheaply relative to the risk Image
6/8

$DAX, which has been amazingly resilient and still ♉️ trend, with a SELL 🚨 this week.

Chart: DAX -1.76% (w) +4.6% (T) Image
7a/8

$WHEAT -5.73% (w) and $CORN -4.21% (w) were enough to trigger a $DBA SELL 🚨

Chart: $DBA remains ♉️ trend, but perhaps not for long. Image
7b/8

Your favorite risk indicator, $BTC is on the verge of a SELL 🚨

Chart: $BTC -4.52% (w) Image
7c/8

$WTIC -0.3 (w) is still chopping around in a tight range between 72-82 🐻 Image
7d/8

Is there a Doctor in the house?

$COPPER -3.89% (w) is confirming trouble ahead for the world economy Image
8/8

All that is to say that it is time to take cover 🌪️, if you have not already done so

#CrashRiskRising

Add to long $USD on pullbacks

Add to 🩳 on any bounces

$VIXM remains cheap - get some 🌊

$BILS at 5% yield - why wait?

⚠️🚩 and have a super profitable 💰 week!

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More from @tdarling1

Feb 28
Hello Tuesday!

Into month-end markup we go with USTs on the move ↗️ and the curve deeply inverted. If this rebalance and 401K flows don't turn this equity market around, look out below 🕳️

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia finished the month on a ↔️🎵

$NIKK 27446 +0.1%
$SSEC 3280 +0.65%
$TWII 15504 -0.7%
$HSI 19786 -0.8%
$KOSPI 2413 +0.4%
$IDX 6843 -0.15%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7258 +0.45%

India ↘️
$BSE 58890 -0.65%
Europe mostly ↘️ on 🔺 inflation 🇪🇸 +6.1% and 🇫🇷 +7.2% y/y

$DAX 15332 -0.3%
$FTSE 7887 -0.6%
$CAC 7265 -0.4% 🇫🇷
$AEX 753 -0.5%
$IBEX 9361 +0.5% 🇪🇸
$MIB 27393 -0.2%
$SMI 11174 -0.4%
$MOEX 2249 +0.35%

$VSTOXX 20.21

$DAX range = 15165 - 15619 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
Hello Monday!

Uncle Warren remains optimistic on the 🇺🇸 - despite a 14% drop in earnings $BRK.A $BRK.B

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia ↘️ to start the week

$NIKK 27424 -0.1%
$SSEC 3258 -0.3%
$TWII 15504 -0.7%
$HSI 19959 -0.25%
$KOSPI 2403 -0.85%
$IDX 6855 -0.05%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7225 -1.1%

India ↘️
$BSE 59143 -0.55%
Europe is ripping ↗️ on 🇮🇹 consumer confidence 🔺

$DAX 15408 +1.3%
$FTSE 7942 +0.8%
$CAC 7286 +1.4%
$AEX 757 +1.4%
$IBEX 9297 +1.05%
$MIB 27423 +1.6% ⬅️ 🇮🇹
$SMI 11241 +0.55%
$MOEX 2223 +0.65%

$VSTOXX 21.09 🔻

$DAX range = 15027 - 15635 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Feb 6
Hello Monday!

A risk-off to start the week that smells of 2022
$VIX 🔺
$TNX 🔺
$USD 🔺

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia, ex-Japan, ↘️

$NIKK $27694 +0.65%
$SSEC 3239 -0.75%
$TWII 15393 -1.35%
$HSI 21222 -2.0%
$KOSPI 2439 -1.7%
$IDX 6874 -0.55%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7539 -0.25%

India ↘️
$BSE 60523 -0.5%
Europe ↘️

$DAX 15337 -0.9%
$FTSE 7834 -0.85%
$CAC 7147 -1.2%
$AEX 755 -1.15%
$IBEX 9146 -0.85%
$MIB 26773 -0.65%
$SMI 11253 -0.85%
$MOEX 2262 +0.6% ⬅️

$VSTOXX 18.69 🔺

$DAX range = 15105 - 15639 ♉️
Read 12 tweets
Feb 5
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
02/05/2023

1/9

The #macro market has been hyper focused on growth and inflation dynamics

We got a slew of data showing inflation under control.

Yet one data point on Friday raised havoc with my portfolio.

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2a/9

The Employment Cost Index #ECI came out on Tuesday, just prior to the #FOMC meeting

#ECI +1% Q/Q represented a deceleration in employment costs
#Inflation 🔻
2b/9

Home prices were also out on Tuesday.
At +8.2% y/y, housing costs continue to decline on an ROC basis
#Inflation 🔻
Read 23 tweets
Jan 29
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵
01/22/2023

1/9

Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?

Where did they come from? Why?
2a/9

Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”

Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.

The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising

Chart: Core #PCE
2b/9

Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y

Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Read 20 tweets
Jan 27
Hello Friday and the week to date

$GBP +0.12%
$GOLD +0.1%
$USD -0.19%

$TLT +0.73%
$HYG +0.29%
$TNX +0.26%

$COMPQ +3.34%
$NIKK +3.05%
$DAX +0.66%

$DBA +2.16%
#Bitcoin +1.47%
$COPPER +0.47%
$SILVER +038%
$DBC -0.16%
$WTIC -0.77%
$NATGAS -10.13%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia finished the week on ↗️

$NIKK 27383 +0.05%
$SSEC 🐰
$TWII 14933 +0.05%
$HSI 22689 +0.55%
$KOSPI 2484 +0.62%
$IDX 6899 +0.5%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7494 +0.35%

India ↘️🐻
$BSE 59085 -1.85%
Europe trading ↗️ but tight

$DAX 15147 +0.1%
$FTSE 7770 +0.1%
$CAC 7171 +0.05%
$AEX 750 +0.3%
$IBEX 9039 +0.05%
$MIB 26246 +0.1%
$SMI 11329 +0.1%
$MOEX 2177 +0.45%

$VSTOXX 17.89

$DAX range = 14812 - 15580 ♉️
Read 11 tweets

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