Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Russian Defense Minister Sergei #Shoigu met with Eastern Military District Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov in western #Donetsk Oblast, likely to assess the extent of Russian losses around #Vuhledar & the possibility of a further offensive there.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar03042023

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1632177882779844609

2/ #Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses in a recent three-week offensive near #Vuhledar, and severe personnel and equipment constraints are likely preventing Russian forces from making even marginal advances in this direction.

3/ The #Russian MoD may be considering whether transferring reserves of manpower and equipment to the #Vuhledar area for renewed offensive operations is a worthwhile effort.

4/ The #Russian MoD recently confirmed that #Muradov is the EMD commander, and the substantial losses around #Vuhledar have likely already caused Muradov significant reputational damage.

5/ #Shoigu may have therefore visited western #Donetsk Oblast also to assess #Muradov’s continued suitability for the position of EMD commander. isw.pub/UkrWar03042023

6/ #Shoigu’s visit to #Ukraine may suggest the MoD lacks confidence in Chief of the General Staff & theater commander of all Russian forces in Ukraine Army General Valery #Gerasimov, who likely should have been the officer making this frontline visit or at least joining Shoigu.