ISW-CTP is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, March 5. This report analyzes the ongoing Battle for #Bakhmut and Russian prospects for further offensive efforts. #Russia #Ukraine️ criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete withdrawal from the city.
The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties.
The Russian military’s attritional campaign to capture Bakhmut has likely prompted Russian #milbloggers to adopt more realistic expectations for further Russian operations in Ukraine.
The Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether Russian forces capture the city or not, and the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months.
Endemic personnel and equipment constraints will likely prevent Russian forces from launching another prolonged offensive operation like the Battle for Bakhmut in the coming months.
The Russian Armed Forces will continue to rely on irregular formations in further offensive operations in the coming months.
Russian forces would have the choice of two diverging lines of advance after capturing Bakhmut but would likely struggle to sustain offensive operations and make any significant gains.
It is not clear if Russian forces intend to resume offensives near Vuhledar, and it is highly unlikely that Russian forces would advance far enough in this direction to support operations elsewhere in any case.
The likely imminent culmination of the Russian offensive around Bakhmut, the already culminated Russian offensive around Vuhledar, and the stalling Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast are likely setting robust conditions for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
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