ISW Profile picture
Mar 7 3 tweets 3 min read
#Wagner's attacks on #Bakmut already culminated once, causing the Russian MoD to commit some of its elite airborne troops to the fight. Wagner may culminate again before taking the city, forcing the Russians to either abandon the effort or throw in additional high-quality troops.
2/ The opportunity to damage the #WagnerGroup’s elite elements, along with other elite units if they are committed, in a defensive urban warfare setting where the attrition gradient strongly favors #Ukraine is an attractive one. isw.pub/UkrWar030623
3/ #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin apparently fears that his forces are being expended in exactly this way.

The severe degradation or destruction of the elite Wagner fighting force would have positive ramifications beyond the battlefield. isw.pub/UkrWar030623

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Mar 9
Key Takeaway:

US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated on March 8 that #Putin likely recognizes the #Russian military’s current limited capability to sustain a short-term offensive and may pursue a protracted war in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar030823
2/ Haines stated on March 8 that Putin is likely only temporarily focused on pursuing short-term military objectives in Ukraine and may believe that prolonging the war will increase the likelihood of achieving his strategic goals. isw.pub/UkrWar030823
3/ ISW has continuously assessed that #Putin maintains maximalist war goals in #Ukraine despite #Russian forces’ currently limited capabilities to achieve those goals. isw.pub/UkrWar030823
Read 4 tweets
Mar 9
#Donetsk Oblast: #Bakhmut

Russian forces have not yet completed a turning movement around Bakhmut and may be conducting a high pace of operations well NW of Bakhmut to spoil future Ukrainian counterattacks that could relieve pressure on Ukrainian forces.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar030823 ImageImage
2/ The #Ukrainian General Staff reported that #Russian forces conducted more than 30 assaults near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of #Bakhmut), roughly thirty percent of the total Russian offensive operations that the General Staff reported in #Ukraine on March 8.
3/ The reported high pace of Russian assaults around Orikhovo-Vasylivka is likely too far NW of #Bakhmut to effectively aid in the attempted Russian turning movement around Bakhmut, given Orikhovo-Vasylivka is over 8km from the closest Ukrainian supply route through Khromove.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8
#Russian forces additionally likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to advance beyond #Bakhmut, and the tactical “assault detachments” used in assaults against Bakhmut are likely unable to conduct maneuver warfare. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar030723
2/ Recent #Russian advances within urban areas of #Bakhmut demonstrate that Russian forces can secure limited tactical gains with infantry-led frontal assaults. They likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to exploit roads (which are likely highly fortified) west of Bakhmut.
3/ As @TheStudyofWar has recently reported, Russian forces are increasingly relying on “assault detachments,” a battalion-size element optimized for frontal assaults on fortified areas, rather than for maneuver warfare.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8
#Russian forces would have to choose between two diverging lines of advance after capturing #Bakhmut that are not mutually supporting, and degraded Russian forces would likely have to prioritize the pursuit of just one to have any chance of success. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar030723
2/ #Russian forces could attempt to push west along the T0504 highway towards Kostiatynivka (about 20km from #Bakhmut) or northwest along the E40 highway towards the #Slovyansk-#Kramatorsk area in NW #Donetsk Oblast (about 40km northwest of Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar030723 Image
3/ Degraded #Russian forces would likely have to prioritize the pursuit of just one to have any chance of success - though Russian commanders have repeatedly stretched their forces too thin across multiple axes of advance throughout the invasion of #Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 7
#Prigozhin has ramped up efforts to disseminate #Wagner’s militarism and ideology in #Russia via its role in Bakhmut. He is among the most extreme of the pro-war nationalists & the severe degradation of elite Wagner forces would have positive ramifications beyond the battlefield.
2/ The #WagnerGroup has recently opened several recruitment centers at sports clubs throughout #Russia, opened a youth branch, and is visiting schoolchildren to lecture them about #Wagner’s structure and show them unfiltered combat footage from Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar030623
3/ #Wagner’s success in #Bakhmut thus far has given #Prigozhin a major advantage in the information space, bolstering his reputation and increasing his popularity in a way that will likely have long-term impacts in the #Russian domestic sphere.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 7
Some Western reports have recently suggested that Ukraine is expending its own elite manpower & scarce equipment in #Bakhmut on mainly Wagner prison recruits who are mere cannon fodder, noting that such an exchange is to Ukr's disadvantage even at high ratios of Ru to Ukr losses.
2/ That observation is valid in general, although the pool of #Russian convict recruits suitable for combat is not limitless and the permanent elimination of tens of thousands of them in #Bakhmut means that they will not be available for more important fights.
3/ #Ukrainian intelligence has supported @TheStudyofWar's assessment that #Russian forces near #Bakhmut have recently changed tactics and committed higher-quality special forces operators and elements of conventional forces to the fight. isw.pub/UkrWar030623
Read 4 tweets

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