Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Mar 9 5 tweets 2 min read
There are signs of escalation everywhere you look.

It seems that Russia used hypersonic missiles in its early-morning raid for the first time. Marked as retaliation, but could also be the beginning of new phase in #UkraineRussiaWar️ .
🧵1/5
Poland and others are sending more tanks, on which first ones should be in operation in Ukraine in this month. Bakhmut, on the other hand, is falling to Russian hands (to the Wagner group).

The war is not going as we in the west have been told. 2/
The buildup of Russian troops to Donbass region has been massive, according to many reports.
The reason for this is unclear, but large troop buildups rarely occur just as a "show of force".
3/
Moreover, President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that if (when) Bakhmut falls, the road to East-Ukraine lays bare.

While this could be a propaganda trick, many see Bakhmut as a crucial logistical hub.
4/
The real risk here is a complete collapse of the Ukrainian eastern front.

In any case, we think we are about to enter a very crucial phase in the #UkraineRussiaWar️ .
/End
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/deprcon-warn…

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More from @mtmalinen

Mar 7
Many have asked me on preparation and my opinions about #gold , #stocks , #Cash and #banks .

We have presented these and preparation guidelines in the following reports, which will continue next week.

Our latest forecasts. 👇
@GnSEconomics
🧵1/10
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/deprcon-outl…
The fundamental thing to understand, concerning preparation, is how prices of different assets are likely to behave in the coming crisis.

In this report, we present historical patterns of key assets classes during crises.
2/
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-preppers…
As a historical 'appendix' we also report the best performing stocks during and after the GFC and the Great Depression. (Free.)
3/
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-best-per…
Read 10 tweets
Mar 1
During the past week, I and we conducted an in-depth analysis of the U.S. #economy . The results were not encouraging.

First, I discovered that the banking sector was more fragile than previously thought.
🧵1/8
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/the-us-econo…
It also seemed that the U.S. credit markets were in the grips of a (fallacious) complacency, shown on the proportionally milder reaction of the "junk" bonds on the current tightening cycle.

But, can the #Fed support the markets in the current situation? We're not so sure.
2/ Image
The good news was that the "zombie-corporation" problem seemed to be less severe than previously thought.

However, we also know that the ultra-easy monetary policies has created weak highly indebted firms.
3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 26
I have to admit that March worries me, while I "called" it already in November.

This is because it can become a month where "everything" converges to form a 'perfect storm'. I shortly summarize them here.
🧵1/6
I first warned on the risks ("fracture lines") in global liquidity in November.

We and I have been analyzing them further and it looks that there's a risk of an outright collapse of global market #liquidity in March. 2/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/an-update-on…
At the same time the effect of waning China stimulus is likely to become visible in Europe and the world economy. 3/
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/derpcon-outl…
Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
The global business cycle is forecastable around 4-5mo ahead and the provision of liquidity into the financial markets is forecastable around 2-3mo ahead, currently.

The onset of economic crises is much more cumbersome and uncertain to forecasts.

A short 🧵on what's coming. 1/6
The flow of aggregate financing in China sputtered in October and fell of a 'cliff' in Nov/Dec. This implied that

1) This month will see first signs of a renewed decline in econ. indicators.
2) Decline will deepen in March and April.

Details. 👇
2/
Global liquidity has been driven by China especially during this year with the onset of QT:s by the #FederalReserve and the #ECB.

The slump in October was followed by a massive increase in November, which lifted the markets. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Feb 18
Past week I promised a (long) thread on global #liquidity and so, here goes!

I have been analyzing the current state global liquidity since early November. Then I warned on possibility of an outright collapse of market liquidity.
🧵1/25
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/global-liqui…
Basically, I re-iterated our original warning from October 2018, when we had discovered that:

1. Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.
2. The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.
2/
3. The composition of international credit has shifted from bank loans to debt securities.

These straight-forwardly implied that:
"The increased role of non-bank institutions in providing credit means that an increasing proportion of international finance comes..."
3/
Read 25 tweets
Feb 9
I'll do one more effort to explain, why the "recession is cancelled" argument is false. 🧵

It is based on ignorance on the forces that lifted the global economy from its slump in the fall.

Global recession is still very much 'on the cards'. 1/17
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/derpcon-outl…
Everything you need to know is summarized in this graph. It shows that Chinese business (debt) cycle leads European cycle by around 3-4mo and the global business cycle by around 4-5mo.

In tight turning points (crises), with synchronous response, the lag is shorter. 2/ Image
This relationship was revealed in 2015/2016.

In 2015 Chinese leaders tried to stabilize the economy by tightening the availability of credit especially to the manufacturing sector, which led to a slump in the Chinese housing market, which had already weakened in 2014. 3/
Read 17 tweets

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