I’ve just returned from NE #Syria, where I visited the U.S. military’s RLZ base in Rumeilan, the al-Roj & al-Hol camps, as well as Ghuweiran Prison – all alongside @CENTCOM Commander Kurilla.
An incredibly insightful trip, with a lot of takeaways.
After arriving on a C-17 at RLZ -- the beating heart of the #Syria-based mission – I saw how U.S. troops operated multiple drone flights, collected & assessed ISR, monitored air traffic for hostile threats, and coordinated D-#ISIS operations across the northeast.
From Rmeilan, Arabic-speaking U.S. troops & civil-military teams are working closely with the #SDF, Asayish, tribal councils in #Iraq & #Syria and the Iraqi government to facilitate the return of 600+ Iraqis from prisons and camps every 4-6 weeks -- an absolutely vital effort.
We then flew to al-Roj in Black Hawks, where we spoke to #SDF & Asayish personnel responsible for securing the camp’s ~2,500 residents who came out of #ISIS areas. The camp had schools, newly built soccer fields, a market & hospital.
Compared to al-Hol, it was calm & relaxed.
We walked throughout al-Roj, speaking with residents – all women, most covered, a few not.
Al-Roj houses 21 Americans, one of whom, Huda Muthanna, ran to meet the US military visitors, along with her 5yr-old son.
Shaking hands with us, Muthanna said extremism remained rife within much of the camp & she feared for her security since renouncing #ISIS & its ideology.
Muthanna spoke in whispers when other women, fully covered, passed by.
Muthanna had her U.S. citizenship revoked in 2016, as her father had allegedly been a Yemeni diplomat when she was born in Virginia. After years of legal appeals, she & her son are now stuck in al-Roj.
From al-Roj, we flew to al-Hol – a sprawling camp home to 51,000 people, almost all of whom came out of #ISIS areas.
55% of the camp are children under 12, security is extremely tight & the #SDF now routinely patrol inside the camp with U.S.-provided Bearcat armored vehicles.
Months ago, the #SDF launched a weeks-long operation throughout al-Hol, to root out #ISIS operatives. 300 people (men & women) were captured; ~150 remain in detention.
Weeks ago, a major #ISIS suicide truck bomb plot led by a local ‘emir’ was thwarted in a nearby farm.
During that #SDF op, several “#ISIS schools” were found, along with photos & videos showing young kids being taught #ISIS’s ideology & calls for terrorism. #ISIS’ flag was everywhere.
Caches of weapons & explosives were seized & an #SDF team was ambushed with an RPG, killing 2.
With a U.S. Special Forces team, we briefly entered al-Hol’s secured gates & spoke to a number of Iraqi women and a few Iraqi teenage boys – they seemed friendly, but the air of tension was palpable.
#SDF guards have begun receiving #ISIS threats by phone in recent days.
Conditions in al-Hol were visibly dire, despite the best efforts of aid groups to assist, many amid ongoing threats & security challenges.
Repatriation is the only solution for al-Hol & while momentum has surged since 2022, the process is slow, with most cases taking 6-9 months.
From al-Hol, we drove to #Hasakeh, where we toured throughout Ghweiran Prison – made notorious by a major #ISIS attack in Jan ‘22 that sparked an 8-day battle that drew in US/UK SOF & left 500+ dead.
Scars from that battle were everywhere -- so too were added defenses (no pics).
Ghweiran Prison is the largest of 26 #SDF-run detention facilities holding 10,000 #ISIS prisoners in NE #Syria.
Ghweiran holds ~5,000 men, all of whom came out of al-Baghouz, #ISIS’s last territorial holdout in March 2019. They’re considered to be the worst of the worst.
Conditions in the prison are cramped, with 25 prisoners per cell. Viewed on CCTV, most were sedentary – they get little fresh air. Locally hired guards, all dressed in blue & all wearing NY Yankee caps didn’t seem thrilled by their jobs. Few had been in work longer than 5 months.
Ghweiran Prison’s security chief said an #ISIS attack plot had recently been foiled, involving operatives inside & outside the facility. One Iraqi ‘emir’ inside was mapping out the entire prison facility, using a bedsheet and ground chicken bones (pens & paper are banned).
While departing Ghweiran en route for the #SDF’s headquarters nearby, a U.S. medevac helicopter arrived carrying an #SDF member shot in an #ISIS attack just minutes earlier in Deir ez Zour – another reminder of the terror group’s ongoing, deadly insurgency.
With a light footprint, the US has played an invaluable role in degrading ISIS in northeast #Syria & those efforts continue apace. Multiple #ISIS senior commanders have been killed in recent months. Across the line in the regime-held desert meanwhile, #ISIS is on the offense.
But beyond the military fight, the biggest challenge is dealing with the 10,000 #ISIS men & 51,000 women & children held in prisons & camps across NE #Syria.
Local returns (to #Iraq & in #Syria) & foreign repatriation is vital – but inordinately complex & scale unprecedented.
According to @CENTCOM, 30,000 #ISIS male fighters are in detention now in #Syria & #Iraq – ‘an army in waiting,’ always vulnerable to prison breaks, particularly in #Syria.
Without repatriation, @CENTCOM now worries the 25,000 children in al-Hol are #ISIS’s “next generation.”
After seeing the whole scope of the problem, one thing is clear: the U.S. military presence in NE #Syria remains **critically** important – without it, we’ll be repeating our 2011 #Iraq withdrawal all over again. That saw #ISIS surge across borders like never before.
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NEW -- #Trump's global aid freeze has cut the salaries paid to many of the prison & camp guards responsible for securing 9,500 #ISIS militants & ~40,000 associated women/kids in northeast #Syria.
Many are no longer turning up for work.
For years, @CENTCOM has warned that #ISIS's "army in waiting" & its potential "next generation" lie in prisons & camps in NE #Syria.
The threat posed by a mass breakout cannot be understated, as #ISIS was already resurgent in 2024: syriaweekly.com/p/in-2024-isis…
@CENTCOM Did #Trump realize that "cutting aid" would mean opening a door for 1,000s of #ISIS militants to potentially be broken out in #Syria?
Of course not -- but that's the consequence of brash, ill-thought out actions intended for headlines, not policy.
The amount of disinformation doing the rounds on #Syria these days is stunning -- some is organized & by design, but much more is the result of simple ignorance.
To make matters worse, *very* few appear capable of distinguishing fact from fiction. A 🧵:
Multiple videos have went near-viral in recent days purporting to show #HTS abuses directed against #Syria's minorities -- but they've been a combination of old footage &/or incidents by #Assad's regime, often in entirely different locations than labeled too.
Social media is full of accounts that specialize in viral content -- and they've flooded the online space with misleading & often wholly inaccurate content on #Syria.
Many on the right in #Europe & the US have jumped on this, sowing yet more misinformation.
2 weeks before #Assad fell, I wrote that the US mustn't leave #Syria, as the D-#ISIS mission is far from over & the practical cost of staying is wholly affordable.
It's still *vital* we stay, but conditions have changed -- a 🧵:
In 2024, #ISIS has *tripled* its operational tempo in #Syria compared to 2023, while expanding its geographic reach, increasing recruitment & attack scale & sophistication.
The fall of #Assad has made the U.S operating environment *much* more complicated -- with our #SDF partners facing a potentially existential challenge from #Turkey, the #SNA & the surge in revolutionary sentiment across #Syria.
Seeing #Assad's former cabinet meeting with #HTS's Salvation Government in #Damascus is truly a staggering thing.
For many years, Syrians aligned with the state risked being disappeared merely for exchanging messages with opposition-aligned people. A 🧵:
In years past, I was involved in a large-scale effort to bring Syrians together from across the crisis spectrum -- for days-long meetings abroad, in neutral venues. Getting people from #Assad-held areas was an enormous logistical & security challenge (for them).
To extend an invite would normally mean first meeting in a neighboring country -- exchanging phone messages or emails whilst in #Syria was a potentially life-threatening thing. Travel would need a cover: a vacation, business meeting, or a family visit.
Over the past week, almost all attention on #Syria has been directed at the #HTS/opposition vs. #Assad dynamic -- and the change of power in #Damascus.
Meanwhile, the #SDF in northeast #Syria has been dealt a tough hand of cards -- a 🧵:
As the anti-#Assad advance gained steam in western #Syria, the Arab tribal component of the #SDF sought to take the fight to #Assad in the east. That happened in Deir ez Zour, but it was hard at times, and complex. It frayed some Arab-YPG ties.
The #SDF also found itself assuming control of resource-intensive areas in #Hasakeh & #Raqqa abandoned by #Assad -- good in theory, but it stretched resources while the #Turkey-backed #SNA launched offensive moves into Tel Rifat & then #Manbij.