Charles Lister Profile picture
Mar 11, 2023 21 tweets 17 min read Read on X
I’ve just returned from NE #Syria, where I visited the U.S. military’s RLZ base in Rumeilan, the al-Roj & al-Hol camps, as well as Ghuweiran Prison – all alongside @CENTCOM Commander Kurilla.

An incredibly insightful trip, with a lot of takeaways.
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After arriving on a C-17 at RLZ -- the beating heart of the #Syria-based mission – I saw how U.S. troops operated multiple drone flights, collected & assessed ISR, monitored air traffic for hostile threats, and coordinated D-#ISIS operations across the northeast. Image
From Rmeilan, Arabic-speaking U.S. troops & civil-military teams are working closely with the #SDF, Asayish, tribal councils in #Iraq & #Syria and the Iraqi government to facilitate the return of 600+ Iraqis from prisons and camps every 4-6 weeks -- an absolutely vital effort.
We then flew to al-Roj in Black Hawks, where we spoke to #SDF & Asayish personnel responsible for securing the camp’s ~2,500 residents who came out of #ISIS areas. The camp had schools, newly built soccer fields, a market & hospital.

Compared to al-Hol, it was calm & relaxed. ImageImage
We walked throughout al-Roj, speaking with residents – all women, most covered, a few not.

At the market, we met women from #Russia, #Uzbekistan, #Kyrgystan, #Kazakhstan, #Pakistan, #Bosnia & more. All asked about the state of repatriation processes with their home governments. ImageImage
Al-Roj houses 21 Americans, one of whom, Huda Muthanna, ran to meet the US military visitors, along with her 5yr-old son.

Shaking hands with us, Muthanna said extremism remained rife within much of the camp & she feared for her security since renouncing #ISIS & its ideology. Image
Muthanna spoke in whispers when other women, fully covered, passed by.

Muthanna had her U.S. citizenship revoked in 2016, as her father had allegedly been a Yemeni diplomat when she was born in Virginia. After years of legal appeals, she & her son are now stuck in al-Roj.
From al-Roj, we flew to al-Hol – a sprawling camp home to 51,000 people, almost all of whom came out of #ISIS areas.

55% of the camp are children under 12, security is extremely tight & the #SDF now routinely patrol inside the camp with U.S.-provided Bearcat armored vehicles. Image
Months ago, the #SDF launched a weeks-long operation throughout al-Hol, to root out #ISIS operatives. 300 people (men & women) were captured; ~150 remain in detention.

Weeks ago, a major #ISIS suicide truck bomb plot led by a local ‘emir’ was thwarted in a nearby farm. Image
During that #SDF op, several “#ISIS schools” were found, along with photos & videos showing young kids being taught #ISIS’s ideology & calls for terrorism. #ISIS’ flag was everywhere.

Caches of weapons & explosives were seized & an #SDF team was ambushed with an RPG, killing 2.
With a U.S. Special Forces team, we briefly entered al-Hol’s secured gates & spoke to a number of Iraqi women and a few Iraqi teenage boys – they seemed friendly, but the air of tension was palpable.

#SDF guards have begun receiving #ISIS threats by phone in recent days.
Conditions in al-Hol were visibly dire, despite the best efforts of aid groups to assist, many amid ongoing threats & security challenges.

Repatriation is the only solution for al-Hol & while momentum has surged since 2022, the process is slow, with most cases taking 6-9 months.
From al-Hol, we drove to #Hasakeh, where we toured throughout Ghweiran Prison – made notorious by a major #ISIS attack in Jan ‘22 that sparked an 8-day battle that drew in US/UK SOF & left 500+ dead.

Scars from that battle were everywhere -- so too were added defenses (no pics).
Ghweiran Prison is the largest of 26 #SDF-run detention facilities holding 10,000 #ISIS prisoners in NE #Syria.

Ghweiran holds ~5,000 men, all of whom came out of al-Baghouz, #ISIS’s last territorial holdout in March 2019. They’re considered to be the worst of the worst.
Conditions in the prison are cramped, with 25 prisoners per cell. Viewed on CCTV, most were sedentary – they get little fresh air. Locally hired guards, all dressed in blue & all wearing NY Yankee caps didn’t seem thrilled by their jobs. Few had been in work longer than 5 months.
Ghweiran Prison’s security chief said an #ISIS attack plot had recently been foiled, involving operatives inside & outside the facility. One Iraqi ‘emir’ inside was mapping out the entire prison facility, using a bedsheet and ground chicken bones (pens & paper are banned).
While departing Ghweiran en route for the #SDF’s headquarters nearby, a U.S. medevac helicopter arrived carrying an #SDF member shot in an #ISIS attack just minutes earlier in Deir ez Zour – another reminder of the terror group’s ongoing, deadly insurgency. Image
With a light footprint, the US has played an invaluable role in degrading ISIS in northeast #Syria & those efforts continue apace. Multiple #ISIS senior commanders have been killed in recent months. Across the line in the regime-held desert meanwhile, #ISIS is on the offense.
But beyond the military fight, the biggest challenge is dealing with the 10,000 #ISIS men & 51,000 women & children held in prisons & camps across NE #Syria.

Local returns (to #Iraq & in #Syria) & foreign repatriation is vital – but inordinately complex & scale unprecedented.
According to @CENTCOM, 30,000 #ISIS male fighters are in detention now in #Syria & #Iraq – ‘an army in waiting,’ always vulnerable to prison breaks, particularly in #Syria.

Without repatriation, @CENTCOM now worries the 25,000 children in al-Hol are #ISIS’s “next generation.”
After seeing the whole scope of the problem, one thing is clear: the U.S. military presence in NE #Syria remains **critically** important – without it, we’ll be repeating our 2011 #Iraq withdrawal all over again. That saw #ISIS surge across borders like never before.

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More from @Charles_Lister

Apr 1
#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.

3 #IRGC-QF Generals:

- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)

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Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.

It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.
For months, Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & suicide drones have targeted Israeli & U.S. targets in #Iraq, #Syria, the Gulf & #Israel itself -- but all launched from outside #Iran's territory.

Could that now change?

Or will #Iran hit targets in the #KRG again?
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.

From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever.
Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.

Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.
In 2023, multiple #ISIS-related attack plots were foiled in northern #Europe -- most unreported, almost all linked to #ISKP.

BUT, those #ISKP plots were 1st detected *outside* #Afghanistan, underlining the group's transnational reach -- as I wrote here:

foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/27/isi…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
Since 2012, #Iran has been building & consolidating a formidable network of proxies across #Syria & #Iraq -- dozens of groups & 150,000+ members, all financed, trained & armed by the #IRGC.

In #Syria, they engaged in ethnic cleansing & war crimes -- completely unchallenged.
During the formative years of 2012-16, #Obama's admin consciously ignored the #IRGC's militia surge in #Syria -- dismissing it as unimportant to U.S. interests.

In 2015, orders were even granted for U.S. forces to deconflict & coordinate with #Iran's proxies in #Iraq, vs. #ISIS.
For a time ('15-17), U.S. forces fighting #ISIS in #Iraq were effectively told to coordinate with the very same groups who'd killed 100s of U.S. troops from '03-'10 & who are again back to targeting us today.

What a staggering indictment of U.S. inconsistency & ill-judgment.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 5, 2023
It’s staggering how much traction this thread got, when it fails to acknowledge one basic fact:

- It takes time to get bodies out of rubble amid intense bombing & to ID bodies (by age, gender) when they’re shredded or in pieces.

Data gets retrospectively updated. That’s normal.
The same has been true in #Syria, #Yemen & many other acute conflict zones.

The @StateDept has told Congress the #Gaza HM data is an undercount. Why? Because in every previous conflict its data has been +/- 1-3% off post-conflict analysis by #Israel, the U.S., the EU & the UN.
@StateDept Are #Hamas combatant casualties being accurately acknowledged? Clearly not — but that doesn’t affect civilian casualty rates.

With ~20,000 strikes in 6 weeks, much in dense urban environments, it’s hardly surprising that ~15,000 civilians would be dead.

Tragic, but logical.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31, 2023
#Putin [rightly] gets slammed for firing cruise missiles into residential buildings in #Ukraine, but when #Israel vaporizes an entire residential block, it's ok & "like the tunnels of Chu Chi."

I'm sorry, but if our principles can't be universal, they count for nothing. Image
#Hamas' evil massacre in #Israel revealed its true colors -- and the group deserves & requires rooting out.

But a scorched earth campaign in which civilians are paying the overwhelming price is a recipe for disaster. We're watching Hamas 2.0's seeds being sown, bomb by bomb.
We can't viscerally oppose #Assad's sieges in #Syria but accept them in #Gaza & we can't condemn the targeting of residential tower blocks in #Ukraine but turn a blind eye when they're turned to rubble in #Gaza.

Countering extremism requires consistency in values, not hypocrisy.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 31, 2023
Heavy fighting continues today, as the death toll reaches 75+.

Overnight, senior Akeidat tribal voices began calling for an anti-#SDF insurgency, which could be *very* significant.

Some of the heaviest fighting is within 10mins of the US “Green Village” base at the Omar Fields.
As fighting escalates further in Deir ez Zour, reports suggest the #SDF has lost 18+ villages & towns to tribal forces.

Since the Akeidat calls earlier today, there are also reports of amassed Arab #SDF defections to the tribes, handing over checkpoints.

Serious, serious news.
Meanwhile, the #SDF continues to dispatch fighters from #Raqqa & #Hasakeh, along with heavy equipment (including U.S.-made Humvees & Bearcats) to confront the tribal uprising in Deir ez Zour.

The tribes control roadways down south though - multiple IED/RPG ambushes yesterday.
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Read 8 tweets

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