I’ve just returned from NE #Syria, where I visited the U.S. military’s RLZ base in Rumeilan, the al-Roj & al-Hol camps, as well as Ghuweiran Prison – all alongside @CENTCOM Commander Kurilla.
An incredibly insightful trip, with a lot of takeaways.
After arriving on a C-17 at RLZ -- the beating heart of the #Syria-based mission – I saw how U.S. troops operated multiple drone flights, collected & assessed ISR, monitored air traffic for hostile threats, and coordinated D-#ISIS operations across the northeast.
From Rmeilan, Arabic-speaking U.S. troops & civil-military teams are working closely with the #SDF, Asayish, tribal councils in #Iraq & #Syria and the Iraqi government to facilitate the return of 600+ Iraqis from prisons and camps every 4-6 weeks -- an absolutely vital effort.
We then flew to al-Roj in Black Hawks, where we spoke to #SDF & Asayish personnel responsible for securing the camp’s ~2,500 residents who came out of #ISIS areas. The camp had schools, newly built soccer fields, a market & hospital.
Compared to al-Hol, it was calm & relaxed.
We walked throughout al-Roj, speaking with residents – all women, most covered, a few not.
Al-Roj houses 21 Americans, one of whom, Huda Muthanna, ran to meet the US military visitors, along with her 5yr-old son.
Shaking hands with us, Muthanna said extremism remained rife within much of the camp & she feared for her security since renouncing #ISIS & its ideology.
Muthanna spoke in whispers when other women, fully covered, passed by.
Muthanna had her U.S. citizenship revoked in 2016, as her father had allegedly been a Yemeni diplomat when she was born in Virginia. After years of legal appeals, she & her son are now stuck in al-Roj.
From al-Roj, we flew to al-Hol – a sprawling camp home to 51,000 people, almost all of whom came out of #ISIS areas.
55% of the camp are children under 12, security is extremely tight & the #SDF now routinely patrol inside the camp with U.S.-provided Bearcat armored vehicles.
Months ago, the #SDF launched a weeks-long operation throughout al-Hol, to root out #ISIS operatives. 300 people (men & women) were captured; ~150 remain in detention.
Weeks ago, a major #ISIS suicide truck bomb plot led by a local ‘emir’ was thwarted in a nearby farm.
During that #SDF op, several “#ISIS schools” were found, along with photos & videos showing young kids being taught #ISIS’s ideology & calls for terrorism. #ISIS’ flag was everywhere.
Caches of weapons & explosives were seized & an #SDF team was ambushed with an RPG, killing 2.
With a U.S. Special Forces team, we briefly entered al-Hol’s secured gates & spoke to a number of Iraqi women and a few Iraqi teenage boys – they seemed friendly, but the air of tension was palpable.
#SDF guards have begun receiving #ISIS threats by phone in recent days.
Conditions in al-Hol were visibly dire, despite the best efforts of aid groups to assist, many amid ongoing threats & security challenges.
Repatriation is the only solution for al-Hol & while momentum has surged since 2022, the process is slow, with most cases taking 6-9 months.
From al-Hol, we drove to #Hasakeh, where we toured throughout Ghweiran Prison – made notorious by a major #ISIS attack in Jan ‘22 that sparked an 8-day battle that drew in US/UK SOF & left 500+ dead.
Scars from that battle were everywhere -- so too were added defenses (no pics).
Ghweiran Prison is the largest of 26 #SDF-run detention facilities holding 10,000 #ISIS prisoners in NE #Syria.
Ghweiran holds ~5,000 men, all of whom came out of al-Baghouz, #ISIS’s last territorial holdout in March 2019. They’re considered to be the worst of the worst.
Conditions in the prison are cramped, with 25 prisoners per cell. Viewed on CCTV, most were sedentary – they get little fresh air. Locally hired guards, all dressed in blue & all wearing NY Yankee caps didn’t seem thrilled by their jobs. Few had been in work longer than 5 months.
Ghweiran Prison’s security chief said an #ISIS attack plot had recently been foiled, involving operatives inside & outside the facility. One Iraqi ‘emir’ inside was mapping out the entire prison facility, using a bedsheet and ground chicken bones (pens & paper are banned).
While departing Ghweiran en route for the #SDF’s headquarters nearby, a U.S. medevac helicopter arrived carrying an #SDF member shot in an #ISIS attack just minutes earlier in Deir ez Zour – another reminder of the terror group’s ongoing, deadly insurgency.
With a light footprint, the US has played an invaluable role in degrading ISIS in northeast #Syria & those efforts continue apace. Multiple #ISIS senior commanders have been killed in recent months. Across the line in the regime-held desert meanwhile, #ISIS is on the offense.
But beyond the military fight, the biggest challenge is dealing with the 10,000 #ISIS men & 51,000 women & children held in prisons & camps across NE #Syria.
Local returns (to #Iraq & in #Syria) & foreign repatriation is vital – but inordinately complex & scale unprecedented.
According to @CENTCOM, 30,000 #ISIS male fighters are in detention now in #Syria & #Iraq – ‘an army in waiting,’ always vulnerable to prison breaks, particularly in #Syria.
Without repatriation, @CENTCOM now worries the 25,000 children in al-Hol are #ISIS’s “next generation.”
After seeing the whole scope of the problem, one thing is clear: the U.S. military presence in NE #Syria remains **critically** important – without it, we’ll be repeating our 2011 #Iraq withdrawal all over again. That saw #ISIS surge across borders like never before.
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According to local reporting, ~25,000 Syrians have fled #Lebanon & sought refugee in opposition-held NW #Syria, via the Aoun al-Dadat crossing in #Jarablus.
Getting to Aoun al-Dadat from #Lebanon's border with #Syria costs ~$500 per person in "fees." 🧵
That $500 of "fees" goes to a network of #Assad regime militias & the 4th Division -- to (1) enter #Syria & (2) pass through a web of checkpoints into #SDF-held territory northeast of #Aleppo.
For 25,000 people? That's $12.5 million of extortion revenue.
Once at Aoun al-Dadat crossing, refugees were initially preyed upon by a criminal gang demanding $20-$50 per person for expedited entry into opposition-held northern #Aleppo.
That criminality has since been squashed; the formal crossing fee is ~$15.
An #Israel ground incursion -- while predictable & understandable -- is the first time that #Hezbollah will perceive a potential opportunity to level the playing field.
While the group can't defend against precision strikes, it can fight on the ground.
#Hezbollah will hope to respond asymmetrically -- relying on tunnels & other covert infrastructure to target #IDF troops with ATGMs, snipers & potentially attempts to 'snatch & grab' hostages.
#Israel's intel will need to be solid.
By launching at night, #Israel has the advantage -- but #Hezbollah brought effective night-vision use into the #Syria theater as early as 2013. It's not incapable of operating at night, and the territory is its backyard.
Interesting -- #Russia says U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones have been flying over [#Assad-held] al-Sukhna in #Homs in recent days & on July 27, they nearly collided with Russian jets.
Treat the latter with skepticism, but ISR over Sukhna is significant -- a 🧵.
#Syria's airspace is delineated by deconfliction lines (i.e. defined areas of responsibility), agreed upon by #Russia & U.S.
CENTCOM has been increasingly concerned about #ISIS's recovery in the #Assad-held central desert & al-Sukhna has been key to that.
It's an open secret that subtle US ISR & occasional unacknowledged night-time SOF actions take place in the #Assad-held badiya -- but for #Russia to highlight MQ-9s being an issue is illustrative of (a) an increase amid (b) a failed regime "clearance operation."
Gathering from media reports, statements & leaks, #Israel's response to #Hezbollah's deadly attack on #MajdalShams is coming & it'll be bigger than anything we've seen in #Lebanon since October 2023.
It's a matter of time; a brief 🧵:
#Israel has already gone after key #Hezbollah operational 'HVTs' -- but not *the* leadership. #Beirut remains untouched (as does airport) & #Hezbollah's network of military bases, facilities & missile depots further north. Such strategic targets seem likely.
The key will be hitting #Hezbollah where it hurts, without triggering an existential response & a cycle of uncontrollable escalation -- a hard balance to strike.
Neither side wants all-out war, yes -- but domestically, #Israel has to & will escalate next.
#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.
3 #IRGC-QF Generals:
- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)
Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.
It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.
For months, Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & suicide drones have targeted Israeli & U.S. targets in #Iraq, #Syria, the Gulf & #Israel itself -- but all launched from outside #Iran's territory.
There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.
From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever.
Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.
Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.
In 2023, multiple #ISIS-related attack plots were foiled in northern #Europe -- most unreported, almost all linked to #ISKP.
BUT, those #ISKP plots were 1st detected *outside* #Afghanistan, underlining the group's transnational reach -- as I wrote here: