2/ Geolocated footage posted on March 14 showing a destroyed #Ukrainian BMP-2 near defending Ukrainian soldiers indicates minor #Russian advances toward Novoselivkse (14km northwest of #Svatove).
3/ Additional geolocated combat footage posted on March 12 shows the BARS (Combat Reserve) unit “Kaskad” striking #Ukrainian positions in the Serebrianske forest area southwest of #Kreminna. isw.pub/UkrWar031423
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2/ Geolocated footage posted on March 14 shows #Wagner forces fighting for new positions ~4km NW of #Bakhmut, indicating that Wagner has advanced towards the Bohdanivka-Khromove line.
3/ Geolocated footage posted on March 15 additionally shows that #Russian forces have advanced to new positions in northern #Bakhmut, just east of the AZOM complex.
The overall #WagnerGroup offensive on #Bakhmut also appears to be nearing culmination. Recent gains north of Bakhmut suggest #Wagner is struggling to complete a close encirclement of the city or gain substantial territory in fights for urban areas. 🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar031523
2/ Ukrainian military sources have noted a markedly decreased number of attacks in and around #Bakhmut, particularly over the last few days. isw.pub/UkrWar031523
3/ #Prigozhin has recently emphasized the toll that a reported lack of ammunition is having on #WagnerGroup’s ability to pursue offensives on #Bakhmut and stated on 15 MAR that due to ammo shortages and heavy fighting, Wagner has had to expand its encirclement of Bakhmut.
2/ Combat footage shows that RU forces have advanced east of Krasnohorivka (~9km north of #Avdiivka), which is consistent with RU claims of a recent successful localized offensive there.
3/ A #Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces continue to advance in Krasnohorivka and are trying to bypass #Avdiivka by pushing northwest from the Opytne-Vodyane road.
#Russian forces advanced within #Bakhmut and continued ground attacks in and around the city but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement of Bakhmut as of March 14. isw.pub/UkrWar031423
3/ #Russian milbloggers widely claimed on March 14 that #WagnerGroup fighters captured the “Vostokmash” plant in the northern part of the #AZOM complex in northwestern #Bakhmut and posted images reportedly showing Wagner troops inside “Vostokmash.”
#Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the #Donetsk Obl. front line and made further advances in and around #Bakhmut on March 12 & 13 but have not succeeded in completing a turning movement, envelopment, or encirclement of the city as of March 13. isw.pub/UkrWar031323
2/ Russian milbloggers widely circulated claims on March 12 that Wagner fighters began assaults on underground sections of the AZOM complex in northwestern #Bakhmut and strengthened their positions at the complex on March 13.
2/ Several #Russian sources discussed purported Russian attacks and gains in southern #Bakhmut. Russian milbloggers also claimed that the Wagner Group has further advanced towards the T0504 and is conducting positional battles near Ivanivske, Stupochky, and Khromove.