Thread by @TheStudyofWar

The overall #WagnerGroup offensive on #Bakhmut also appears to be nearing culmination. Recent gains north of Bakhmut suggest #Wagner is struggling to complete a close encirclement of the city or gain substantial territory in fights for urban areas. 🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar031523

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1636179536613179394

2/ Ukrainian military sources have noted a markedly decreased number of attacks in and around #Bakhmut, particularly over the last few days. isw.pub/UkrWar031523

3/ #Prigozhin has recently emphasized the toll that a reported lack of ammunition is having on #WagnerGroup’s ability to pursue offensives on #Bakhmut and stated on 15 MAR that due to ammo shortages and heavy fighting, Wagner has had to expand its encirclement of Bakhmut.

4/ #Prigozhin notably claimed that #Wagner captured Zalizianske, a tiny rural settlement 9km northwest of Bakhmut on the east side of the E40 #Bakhmut-Slovyansk highway...

5/ ...which indicates that #Wagner forces are likely conducting opportunistic localized attacks on settlements further north of #Bakhmut that are small and relatively easier to seize. isw.pub/UkrWar031523

6/ Recent Wagner gains north of #Bakhmut suggest that manpower, artillery, and equipment losses in fights for Bakhmut will likely constrain #Wagner’s ability to complete a close encirclement of Bakhmut or gain substantial territory in battles for urban areas.

7/ The capture of Zalizianske and other similarly small towns north of #Bakhmut and east of the E40 highway is extremely unlikely to enhance #Wagner’s ability to capture Bakhmut itself or make other operationally significant gains.

8/ It therefore is likely that #Wagner’s offensive on #Bakhmut is increasingly nearing culmination. #Russian forces would likely have to commit significant reserves to prevent this culmination.

9/ They may be able to do so, as ISW has observed elements of #Russian airborne regiments in and around #Bakhmut that do not seem to be heavily committed to the fighting at the moment. isw.pub/UkrWar031523

10/ The Russians might also commit elements of other conventional units, including possibly the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division, or units drawn from elsewhere in the theater. But it seems that the Wagner offensive itself will not be sufficient to seize #Bakhmut.