1/ A 🧵on Ohrid threats: The upcoming Ohrid meeting between #Vučić, #Kurti, and Borrell about the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan for #Kosovo is Dead On Arrival. A recently leaked EU document contains threatened actions about what the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 could do if #Serbia and Kosovo don't sign on.
2/ It is highly probable that the meeting will kick the can down the road to late 2023. Yet, the hype leading up to this meeting and the leaked EU document indicate a high level of pressure on Belgrade and Pristina to deliver, due to 🇷🇺 illegitimate and unprovoked invasion of🇺🇦
3/ The document says that if 🇷🇸 and 🇽🇰 do not sign the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan, the 🇪🇺 (and 🇺🇸?) will: "Suspend the integration path and throw away associated processes and benefits. Isolation and internal turmoil will soon follow".
4/ Threats vs 🇷🇸: "Will create an opportunity for Kosovo to grow without needing to work with Belgrade. If it rejects the agreement, Serbia will also lose the five non-recognisers. Regardless of the outcome, the EU/NATO will eventually speak with a single voice on Kosovo."
5/ Threats vs 🇽🇰: "Kosovo must... honor past agreements [ASM]... refusal to do so can have severe consequences for Kosovo's future... Western partners will lack the incentive to support Kosovo's further growth... Kosovo could see a reversal of progress in some areas."
6/ The question remains as to what options the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 have available. Given the high probability that the talks will fail, the west will try to put lipstick on the pig by coming up with some meaningless declaration on principles or a roadmap.
7/ The 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 can take back recently given carrots . 🇽🇰 recently received visa-free travel to the 🇪🇺. For 🇷🇸 it could mean revoking $2.2 billion in recently announced 🇪🇺assistance/investments and having the 5 🇪🇺non-recognizers recognize🇽🇰.
8/ The threats against 🇷🇸 are weak sauce and demonstrate that the EU process (Lajčák and Várhelyi) have subtly favored 🇷🇸 in an effort to place that country in a leading role in the Balkans, whether or not that is acceptable to 🇷🇸neighbors. Which it is not.
9/ So what will follow the Ohrid meeting? It is doubtful that the EU will be able to obtain the consensus necessary from all its members to take action against Serbia. And it is highly likely that Kurti will once beat Vučić at the game of chicken.
10/ So break out lots of lipstick, cause it's gonna be one big pig.

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More from @JamesLy16155383

Mar 19
🧵1/ #Ohrid Outcome: a big fat nothing-burger. #Serbia's #Vučić announced ahead of time he wouldn't sign anything. He kept his word. This made #Kosovo's #Kurti seem cooperative. Image
2/ Even Albania's Edi Rama seemed skeptical of the "progress" that was achieved.
3/ Both the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 had played up the meeting ahead of time, and a leaked 🇪🇺 document indicated that the west was serious and significant penalties would apply if either side refused to sign the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan at Ohrid. ImageImage
Read 19 tweets
Mar 17
1/ 🧵 #Serbia's thin-skinned president Aleksandar #Vučić, who controls nearly the entire media spectrum, just filed a SLAPP against 2 journalists for a documentary series that aired three years ago in February 2020 on N1. n1info.rs/vesti/vucic-tu…
2/ Vučić claims that the defendants "caused him serious spiritual pain and suffering" and hurt his "highly ranked image and honor". He claims he felt "fear of a high intensity", and that the series was a media coup against the president. nova.rs/vesti/politika…
3/ The suit alleges that the journalists characterized Vučić as "arrogant", a "sick man", "uneducated", "rude", "manipulative", a "man who doesn't speak the truth", etc. Those seem like accurate descriptions that can be backed up with empirical evidence. What is he upset about? Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 16
🧵1/ The upcoming 18 March Ohrid meeting between #Serbia’s 🇷🇸 President Aleksandar #Vučić and #Kosovo 🇽🇰 Prime Minister Albin #Kurti is already a bust. Odds that anything of substance will be signed are the same as the odds that Donald #Trump will stop coloring his hair.
2/ This is part of a game of chicken between Vučić and Kurti. Vučić swerved first on 27 February in #Brussels, where it became apparent that Kurti was willing to keep his foot on the gas pedal longer. The faces at the meeting speak eloquently of winners and losers.
3/ Vučić had bet that Kurti wouldn’t sign on to the Franco-German plan. This gave Vučić the room to pretend to go along with #EU/#US policy goals, simply by taking one step further than Kurti, but without doing anything of significant substance.
Read 25 tweets
Feb 6
1/ 🧵on Albin #Kurti, Aleksandar #Vučić, the latest twists in the Franco-German 🇫🇷🇩🇪plan for #Kosovo 🇽🇰, the specter of upcoming elections in #Serbia, Lajcak gives Vučić a wedgie, and a fart explodes in Belgrade's elevator (figuratively speaking).
2/ Yesterday, EU envoy Miroslav #Lajcak visited Pristina, where he appears to have had a productive meeting with Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The "cat-that-swallowed-the-canary" look on Kurti's face indicates he is finally catching on to how the game is played.
3/ Kurti said: "We do accept the EU proposal for normalization of relations between Kosova and Serbia, and consider it a good basis for further discussion and a solid platform for moving forward."
Read 17 tweets
Feb 2
1/ 🧵Every Circus has a clown. Today’s session of #Serbia’s 🇷🇸 Parliament opened the next act of President Aleksandar #Vučić’s #Kosovo 🇽🇰 Kabuki Theater. It gave new meaning to the saying: “not my monkeys, not my circus,” and included a convicted rapist and an alleged murder.
2/ The session featured Vučić leading a debate about the Franco-German plan for Kosovo. In a combative speech in which he hurled kafana insults, he offered the parliament no details of the still undisclosed plan and failed to divulge information about it.
3/ The ultra-nationalist opposition played their role in a seemingly scripted fashion. Boško Obradović's ultra-nationalist Dveri deputies unfurled a banner reading "No To Capitulation".
Read 14 tweets

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