Thread by @JamesLy16155383

🧵1/ #Ohrid Outcome: a big fat nothing-burger. #Serbia's #Vučić announced ahead of time he wouldn't sign anything. He kept his word. This made #Kosovo's #Kurti seem cooperative.

2/ Even Albania's Edi Rama seemed skeptical of the "progress" that was achieved.

https://twitter.com/ediramaal/status/1637230296754946051

3/ Both the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 had played up the meeting ahead of time, and a leaked 🇪🇺 document indicated that the west was serious and significant penalties would apply if either side refused to sign the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan at Ohrid.

4/ Even though Vučić refused to sign anything, the West insisted on some sign of "progress". Following nearly 10 hours of meetings, Borrell announced: "We have a deal".

https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1637219517792174080a

5/ The deal consists of a short "Implementation Annex of the Agreement on the path to normalisation of relations", i.e., window dressing to present the image of progress, i.e., lipstick on a pig.
eeas.europa.eu/eeas/belgrade-…

6/ The text: "This Annex constitutes an integral part of the Agreement. Kosovo and Serbia fully commit to honour all Articles of the Agreement and this Annex, and implement all their respective obligations stemming from the Agreement and this Annex expediently and in good faith."

7/ "The Parties take note that the Agreement and the Implementation Annex will become integral parts of the respective EU accession processes of 🇽🇰 and 🇷🇸." Those are empty calories, particularly given the dismal state of both countries in the 🇪🇺 accession process.

8/ "The Parties note that immediately after the adoption of the Agreement and this Annex, the EU Facilitator will start the process to amend the Chapter 35 benchmarks for 🇷🇸 to reflect 🇷🇸’s new obligations stemming from the Agreement and this Annex."

9/ "The agenda of 🇽🇰’s Special Group on Normalisation will equally reflect 🇽🇰’s new obligations stemming from the Agreement and this Annex. The Parties agree to endorse the Declaration on Missing Persons, as negotiated under the 🇪🇺-facilitated Dialogue, as a matter of urgency."

10/ Both of these sentences are fluff meant to satisfy the bureaucratic Mandarins in Brussels and State Department and demonstrate that at least some "progress" had been achieved. They are fig leaves.

11/ This fig leaf of progress is important to the bureaucracies. Otherwise, they will need to report failure, which could have significant career implications. More importantly, if the 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸 openly admitted failure, then they would feel obliged to shift away from the carrots

12/ and towards the sticks mentioned in the leaked 🇪🇺 document for the sake of their own credibility. At present, several 🇪🇺 EU member states would refuse to go along, and the 🇺🇸 is not yet ready to initiate harsher coercive measures, given 🇷🇸 role providing 🇺🇦 with ammunition

13/ and light infantry weapons. "To implement Article 7, Kosovo launches immediately negotiations within the EU-facilitated Dialogue on establishing specific arrangements and guarantees to ensure an appropriate level of self-management for the Serbian community in Kosovo,

14/ in compliance with relevant previous Dialogue agreements as determined by the EU Facilitator." They were already doing this. "The Parties agree to set up a Joint Monitoring Committee, chaired by the EU, within 30 days. The implementation of all provisions shall be ensured and

15/ supervised by the Joint Monitoring Committee." This might be something of substance. Or it might not. "To implement Article 9, the EU will organise a donor conference within 150 days to set up an investment and financial aid package for Kosovo and Serbia. No disbursement

16/ will happen before the EU determines that all provisions of the Agreement have been fully implemented." Still lots of carrots, no sticks, because there is no backing for it in Washington or Brussels at this stage. And sticks require an admission of failure.

17/ "Kosovo and Serbia agree that all Articles will be implemented independently of each other.
The order of the paragraphs of this Annex is without prejudice to the order of their implementation."

WTF? A free-for-all? This is where the nothing-burger is exposed for what it is.

18/ Vučić must now find a way to sell the 🇫🇷-🇩🇪 plan to 🇷🇸's public, over 50% of whom oppose action on 🇽🇰. In order to win over public support, Vučić must:
1) Have the political will, which he doesn't;
2) Use media to shape public opinion.

19) The first sign that Vučić has decided to change direction on 🇽🇰 will be seen in 🇷🇸's media. When Vučić gives the order to take a pro-western stance, it will be immediately visible.