Thread by @Oliver_Geden

After 3 yrs of hard work & a long approval plenary, we got the #IPCC #AR6 Synthesis Report published today, consisting of the Summary for Policymakers and a full report version ➡️ ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
An ongoing 🧵, starting with SPM fig 1 on adverse climate change impacts
1/n

Every increment of warming matters (SPM.2)
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[2/n]

Future climate change to increase impacts and regional differences
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[3/n]

Risks are increasing with every increment of warming (SPM.4)
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[4/n]

Limiting warming to 1.5°C & 2°C involves rapid and deep GHG emission reductions (SPM.5)
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[5/n]

Rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to enable climate resilient development (SPM.6)
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[6/n]

Multiple opportunities for scaling up climate action (SPM.7)
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[7/n]

Focus on 1st day of #IPCC reports usually on Summary for Policymakers, a co-produced document leading to co-ownership that can't contradict findings in underlying report.
Approval plenary most visible aspect of #SciPol interface, but there're also review comments & responses
8/n

A full summary of the SPM can be found in the collection of "Headline Statements". The "Longer Report" hasn't been published yet, so we can't continue with its (many) figures for now. In the meantime, some SPM findings I was involved in
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
9/n

Let's start with "Overshoot" (B.7), where I was responsible for drafting and 'negotiating' in plenary, but of course not alone (mainly together with @chrisd_jones, with whom I worked on corresponding section 3.3.4 in underlying report)
#IPCC #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
10/n

To understand the Overshoot bullet B.7, we need to start with B.1 on "Future Climate Change", led by @JuneYiLee1 & @sorensson_anna (who will hopefully correct me if I get something wrong).
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[10a/n]

The main overshoot-relevant message here: 1.5C probably reached (& exceeded) in 2030s, even in the most ambitious WG I and WG III scenarios
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
[10b/n]

Scenarios aren't predictions when exactly 1.5C will be reached (& usually exceeded), but estimates given in footnote, pointing to first half of 2030s.
Important: '1.5C target' is abou multi-year averages, not individual years, to reach 1.5C even before
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
[10C/n]

Summaries for Policymakers of both WG I (Aug 21) and WG III (Apr 22) reports already included these 2030s timeframes for 1.5C threshold reaching/crossing. Yet, the message did not really stick, neither in media nor in broader #climate (policy) community
#IPCC #AR6 #SYR
[10D]

The SPM text on the timeframes for 1.5C threshold reaching/crossing got a lot of attention in the approval plenary. You can get an impression by looking at the recently published @IISD_ENB report on the #IPCC #AR6 #SYR approval plenary
enb.iisd.org/58th-session-i…
[10E]

Btw, @IISD_ENB reports on #IPCC meetings provide very useful insights. But ENB observers are only allowed in plenaries, not in contact groups & huddles, where detailed deliberations take place. Government delegations certainly take this into account
enb.iisd.org/58th-session-i…
[10F]