Chinese President #Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir #Putin in #Moscow on March 20 and offered a more reserved vision for Russian-Chinese relations than what #Putin was likely seeking. 🧵(1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar032023
2/ #Xi and #Putin touted the strength of Chinese-Russian relations in their meeting on March 20, but offered differing interpretations of the scale of future relations in articles they published on March 19.
3/ #Putin published an article in Chinese state media arguing that #Russia & #China are building a partnership for the formation of a multipolar world order in the face of the collective West’s seeking of domination & the US policy of dual containment against China and Russia.
4/ #Xi offered a less aggressive overarching goal for Russian-Chinese relations in his article published in Russian state media outlet Rossiskaya Gazeta noting that #Russia & #China are generally pursuing a multipolar world order but not specifically against an adversarial West.
5/ #Xi instead focused heavily on presenting #China as a viable third-party mediator to the war in #Ukraine whose plan for negotiations ”reflects the unity of views of the world community on overcoming the #Ukrainian crisis.”
6/ #Putin wrote that Russia welcomes #China’s willingness to "play a constructive role in crisis management" regarding the war in #Ukraine, but Putin likely was hoping for #Xi to adopt a similarly aggressive rhetorical line against the West. isw.pub/UkrWar032023
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#Russian forces may be deploying significantly outdated T-54 and T-55 tanks from long-term storage to #Ukraine to compensate for significant armored vehicle losses. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar032223
2/ The deployment of inferior equipment to replenish the #Russian military's ability to conduct mechanized maneuver warfare may prompt a further degradation of Russian manpower in #Ukraine.
3/ #Russian forces are unlikely to achieve preferable resource attrition rates on the grounds that T-54/55 are cheaper than anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) ammunition, as some have argued. isw.pub/UkrWar032223
The tempo of #Russian operations around #Bakhmut appears to be slowing amid Western reporting that Russian forces may be attempting to launch offensives in other directions. (1/5) isw.pub/UkrWar032223
2/ #Russian forces made additional marginal advances in southern #Bakhmut, and Ukrainian forces conducted counterattacks on the southwestern and northwestern outskirts of the city on March 21 and 22.
3/ #Russian forces are currently increasing the tempo of their offensive operations around #Avdiivka aiming to encircle the settlement - possibly at the expense of their operations around #Bakhmut and the stalled offensive around #Vuhledar. isw.pub/UkrWar032223
#Xi’s refusal to explicitly align #China with #Russia in #Putin’s envisioned geopolitical conflict with the West is a notable departure from China’s declared “no limits partnership” with Russia preceding the start of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar032023
2/ #Xi’s rhetoric suggests that he is not inclined to fully give #Russia the economic and political support that Russia needs to reverse setbacks in #Ukraine.
3/ #Putin and #Xi offered somewhat similar visions for increased Chinese-Russian economic partnership, and it is likely that the two will sign bilateral trade and economic agreements during Xi’s visit, some of which will likely aim to facilitate schemes for sanctions evasion.
#Russian forces likely made additional gains in SW and northern #Bakhmut as well as northwest of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove as of March 20. 1/5
The #Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 19 that #Russian troops attacked toward Berdychi (10km NW of #Avdiivka), which indicates that Russian forces likely advanced west of Krasnohorivka (9km north of Avdiivka) and captured Stepove (just west of Krasnohorivka). 2/5
#Russian forces are likely increasing the tempo of operations north of #Avdiivka in an effort to set conditions for the encirclement of the settlement and are reportedly employing a greater number of aviation units in the area to support these operations. 3/5
#Russian President Vladimir #Putin visited occupied #Mariupol on March 19, likely to project the image of invulnerability and to continue efforts to portray himself as an involved wartime leader. isw.pub/UkrWar031923
2/ #Putin also likely meant his visit to be a response to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for his involvement in war crimes connected to the deportation of #Ukrainian children, at least 1,000 of whom #Russian officials deported from #Mariupol alone.
3/ #Putin’s visit to #Mariupol likely also aimed to assuage a longstanding and pervasive fear in the nationalist space about a prospective Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar031923
#Ukrainian forces likely conducted a localized counterattack southwest of #Bakhmut amid growing #Russian discussion about a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area. isw.pub/UkrWar031923
2/ Geolocated footage published on March 19 indicates that #Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of #Bakhmut) and pushed Russian forces further away from the T0504 highway in the area.
3/ #Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that #Russian forces conducted 25 attacks in the Bakhmut area on March 19, but Russian forces likely only secured marginal gains.