I did a deep analysis of the #ARB tokenomics and today I will share my thoughts and insights on the coin.
UPD: Big profit awaits us...
Token information
Maximum supply - 10 billion
Circulating supply - 1.275 billion
Inflation<2% per year
Market cup at the moment - $2 billion
Market cup at a total circulating supply - $15 billion
Tokenomics $ARB
17.53% is allocated to Investors
1.13% is allocated to DAOs in Arbitrum Ecosystem
11.62% is allocated to Individual Wallets
42.78% is allocated to DAO Treasury
26.94% is allocated to Team and Future Team + Advisors
Tokenomics analysis
To date $ARB has distributed 12.75% of the tokens:
Community - 11.62%
DAO - 1.13%
Most of the tokens are held by the team and investors - 45%. Unlocking of tokens will begin in a year. Further linear and uniform unlocking for 3 years
Perspectives for L2 and $ARB.
Now we can observe a clear race among L2 startups.
A lot of strong and revolutionary L2 decisions have come out or are coming out in a bear market. It is projects built in such a market that set the trend in a bull market.
Comparison with the main competitor $ARB vs $OP
Essentially, $OP and $ARB are very similar. Both L2, both have inflation at 2% per year, but let's look at the unlocks. Who is better?
The ways of distribution of tokens are different:
The $ARB holds almost half in Treasury, and the $OP gives more than 60% to the development of the ecosystem and community.
From the point of view of $ARB price manipulation, this is easier to do. Almost half of the total volume is reserved. This gives the market maker the right to pump the price up at a lower cost than the $OP can do.
From this, I conclude that the next year will be bullish for $ARB. Through 1 year, the funds and the team will get unlock tokens, so the pamp is inevitable!
Further, for the next 3 years, the price will also be pump, because funds and team want to maximize profit.
Price predictions.
I think that in the next 4 years we will see a bull market. The most interesting thing is that by investing in the $ARB token, we get two factors that positively affect the price. 1) Bull Rally 2) Pump from MM to sell their tokens for higm price.
I think we can see capitalization around 15-25 billion for 2 years. This means that the price, which in theory can become a peak for our sale, is about $10-15 per $ARB.
I am attaching an interesting information. For those who do not understand. Above is a graph of 2-year US bonds and the Fed's rate. When a 2-year rate hike cycle begins to show a lower yield than the Fed rate it's meant the end of the rate hike cycle.
Since my opinion is that we are in a cyclical crisis, the following should happen:
As soon as the Fed starts to lower interest rates, then we start to see markets rise (this may not happen immediately, but it will happen fast).
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