🧵The closer we get to US Presidential primaries the more we hear voices in various outlets advocating that we end our support for #Ukraine, and even leave #Europe altogether. The argument is that we focus instead on #Asia, as #China poses the greatest threat to US security. 1/6
Some of those pieces are analytical, others veer into partisan screeds. But they all share two assumptions in common: that 1.our support for #Ukraine is a distraction from the real threat, and 2. that we lack sufficient resources to engage both in the Atlantic and the Pacific.2/6
This argument fundamentally misreads our geopolitics. The United States is a quintessentially maritime power-an island on a continental scale. We have the maintenance of the Navy written into our Constitution. Access to the World Ocean has historically nurtured our prosperity.3/6
And now we’re being told that getting out of Europe is a solution to our security dilemma when it comes to #China. Or that we should peel #Russia away from China (how exactly?). This has become a drumbeat since Obama’s failed “reset with Russia” & his ill-fated“pivot to Asia.”4/6
Advocates of the US pulling out of Europe misread the nature of the threat facing us in the coming years of prolonged global instability. We cannot hope to abandon our allies and interests in one major theater and expect to prevail in the other. 5/6
The Sino-Russian alliance constitutes a danger to US security on a global scale. They are engaged against us in both theaters. #Ukraine is grinding down the Russian military, buying us time for our @NATO allies to rearm. It helps us sequence the threats. #StandWithUkraine 6/End
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🧵My take as I watch the Sino-Russian summit: There is growing convergence between China and Russia. It is intrinsic, driven by shared interests/opposition to the West; not a function of our actions. #Russia wants to revise the post-1991 order; #China wants to replace it. 1/5
After Xi's success with Saudi Arabia, he will try to position China as a peacemaker in #Ukraine, with an eye to securing a Russian victory there. Here much will depend on the outcome of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. Both Beijing and Moscow believe time is on their side. 2/5
In this context, a key decision point for #Europe will be how it deals with #China going forward-not just because this will impact on its relations with the US, but also because Russia is now indirectly a part of this equation. Europe needs a consensus on the Russian threat. 3/5
🧵I am taking part in yet another conference on defense planning and strategy, and of course the conversation defaults to #Ukraine. And again, I hear how this war will go for many years. I even heard about a "forever-war" (sic!). So let me get a couple things straight. 1/5
First: There are no "forever wars." Every war ends at some point. So, let's stop being breathless. Second: Considering that the latest Russian offensive has degenerated into a war of attrition, all eyes should be on #Ukraine and its next move. 2/5
It may be a breakthrough, or it may end up in another stalemate. This is a binary, and each will have a direct political outcome, especially when it comes to Western support for #Ukraine. Simply put, Kyiv needs a win-at least at the operational level, preferably strategic. 3/5
🧵As I watch fault lines in #Europe deepen (notwithstanding all the rhetoric of its unity in opposition to RUS invasion of #Ukraine), here are a few thoughts. The distribution of economic power in the #EU that unequivocally favors Germany needs thoughtful political rebalancing.1/
For #Europe to really come together the voices of those members along the flank need to become much more important to the #EU’s future trajectory than they were in the last 20 yrs. The flank countries were right on #Russia, while #Germany and #France were not. Recognize that. 2/
If #Europe is to heal this realization has to be the starting point. #EU can never again allow itself to be subjected to the kind of brass-tack geopolitics that was Nord Stream. No matter how economically powerful the state is that makes this play. No matter the arms-twisting. 3/
🧵I keep getting emails from various people to tell me that 1. #Ukraine can’t win or 2. that the war in UKR is a distraction from the real threat posed by #China. Then I get those about how we are depleting our stocks and won’t have enough should a crisis erupt over #Taiwan 1/5
To the first point: Neither I nor the naysayers know what the final outcome in #Ukraine will be. Wars are inherently unpredictable.They are not just about mass, population, or resources. History is replete with wars where a smaller but better motivated and led force prevailed 2/5
To the second point: We are in a global contest between democracies and dictatorships. #Russia and #China are aligned against us not because we pushed them together but because they share the same interest: to dismantle the current order. These theaters are interconnected. 3/5
🧵Recently a parliamentarian from #Ukraine said to me: "You give us enough to defend ourselves, but not enough to win." Too true. No war can last forever, no nation has infinite resources or stamina. In the end one side breaks. 1/
Wars are decided not just by resources, planning or morale. There is a temporal factor when all elements come together. We are at such a moment in this war when #Ukraine - if given MBTs, long-range fires, aircraft and munitions can defeat the Russian forces on its territory. 2/
I have to ask myself why so many governments in the West continue to delay, debate, hesitate and then send only a few tanks, howitzers or limited shipments of ammunition that will arrive at some later date? Why with our stocks depleted we are not moving to wartime production? 3/
🧵As I watch delays in weapons and munitions deliveries to #Ukraine amidst incessant talk about “redlines” and “risk of escalation, let me offer a few thoughts. First,why are we second-guessing ourself as to what Russian reaction might be when #Europe’s security is at stake? 1/
The reality is that we are self-imposing those redlines. We keep communicating our anxiety at every turn, while we should actually keep Russia guessing as to what we will do when it comes to both policy and weapons deliveries to #Ukraine. In effect, we are “self-deterring.” 2/
On my 2nd point, i.e., the risk of escalation let’s remember that in the final analysis we have limited capacity to control what Putin does next. I say this not to dismiss the threat but to focus on what we need to do to help #Ukraine win because it is fighting for us as well.3/