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@TheStudyofWar
Mar 30 • 5 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Russian authorities arrested Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) naval department head Colonel Sergey Volkov on Mar. 29 for corruption-related charges in connection with the sale of low-quality radar systems at heavily inflated prices. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar032923
The #Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and #Rosgvardia recently launched a criminal case against the Deputy Commander of the Rosgvardia’s Central District on March 20 for corruption-related charges. 2/
The criminal proceedings are notable because commanders of conventional #Russian forces have not been fired, let alone arrested, since the start of #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine at the same rate or in such high-profile circumstances as the #Rosgvardia cases. 3/
It is highly unlikely that corruption in the #Rosgvardia is more pronounced than it is in the #Russian Armed Forces. The Rosgvardia notably includes elements responsible for #Russia’s domestic regime security. 4/
#Putin likely pays very close attention to the reliability and loyalty of some #Rosgvardia personnel, apart from concerns he may have about corruption in that organization. 5/5

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Mar 31
#Putin remains unlikely to deploy newly conscripted troops to participate in combat in #Ukraine due to concerns for the stability of his regime. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar033023
#Putin’s use of conscripts during the winter-spring period of 2022 sparked social tensions in #Russia, and Putin is unlikely to risk his regime’s stability by deploying newly conscripted servicemen to the frontlines. 2/
The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and #Putin even publicly instructed Russian authorities to investigate alleged incidents of Russian conscript deployments to #Ukraine on March 9, 2022 (which were technically illegal at that time). 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 31
NEW: #Russian President Vladimir #Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,000 Russians between April 1 and July 15.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar033023 ImageImageImageImage
#Russia conducts two conscription cycles per year with the spring conscription cycle usually conscripting 134,000 #Russian men.

Russia may use #Belarus’ training capacity to support the increase of 13,000 conscripts from previous years.

isw.pub/UkrWar033023
The start of the new conscription period, even with a slightly increased number of conscripts, may actually reduce #Russian training capacity for reservists and other personnel recruited via crypto-mobilization campaigns.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 30
March 29 Assessment Highlight:

#Chechen Republic Head Ramzan #Kadyrov’s demonstrative response to an attack on a police station in Chechnya suggests that he may be concerned about the stability of his authoritarian rule. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar032923 Image
Kadyrov published footage of himself, his 15-year-old son, and an entourage of Chechen officials and security personnel visiting the scene of the attack and inspecting the mangled bodies of the assailants. 2/
The fact that #Kadyrov’s response to the attack was so immediate and heavy-handed suggests that he is concerned about the potential for internal resistance within Chechnya to undermine his authoritarian rule of the autonomous republic. 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 29
NEW: #Wagner Group forces have likely taken the AZOM industrial complex in northern #Bakhmut and continue to make gains within the city.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar032823
#Russian milbloggers widely claimed on Mar. 28 that #Wagner fighters have captured the AZOM complex and are working to clear the area of remaining #Ukrainian forces.

These claims are relatively consistent with available visual evidence of Russian presence in the AZOM complex. 2/
#Wagner is likely working to consolidate gains in northern and central #Bakhmut to push towards the city center and expand its zone of control into western Bakhmut. 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 28
Southern #Ukraine update:

#Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in southern Ukraine.

isw.pub/UkrWar032723 ImageImage
#Russian sources claimed on Mar. 27 that the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in the #Zaporizhia direction... [B]ut a Russian milblogger claimed on Mar. 21 that unspecified elements of the 136th are instead operating in the #Avdiivka direction. 2/
The apparent simultaneous commitment of elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade to two disparate areas of the frontline is notably not a doctrinally sound pattern of deployment. 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 28
NEW: Rumors about the dismissal of #Russian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Rustam #Muradov generated a muted and cynical response in the Russian information space. #Ukraine

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar032723
One prominent milblogger claimed that military authorities are also considering dismissing Western Military District Commander Colonel General Yevgeny #Nikiforov, whose forces operate along the #Kupyansk-#Svatove-#Kreminna line in eastern #Ukraine. 2/
ISW cannot confirm the rumors of either #Muradov’s or #Nikiforov’s dismissals, but it is noteworthy that #Russian milbloggers are discussing potential dismissals of commanders associated with areas of operation in which . . . 3/
Read 4 tweets

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