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Mar 30 4 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
March 29 Assessment Highlight:

#Chechen Republic Head Ramzan #Kadyrov’s demonstrative response to an attack on a police station in Chechnya suggests that he may be concerned about the stability of his authoritarian rule. 1/

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Kadyrov published footage of himself, his 15-year-old son, and an entourage of Chechen officials and security personnel visiting the scene of the attack and inspecting the mangled bodies of the assailants. 2/
The fact that #Kadyrov’s response to the attack was so immediate and heavy-handed suggests that he is concerned about the potential for internal resistance within Chechnya to undermine his authoritarian rule of the autonomous republic. 3/
#Kadyrov likely sees any sign of internal instability in #Chechnya as a threat to #Putin’s continued favor. 4/4

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Apr 1
The new Foreign Policy Concept (FPC) paints the West as anti-#Russian & internationally destabilizing to a far greater extent than 🇷🇺's previous 2016 FPC, explicitly stating that the US & its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at weakening 🇷🇺.

isw.pub/UkrWar033123
The new document also heavily stresses #Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world order & subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending the US’ supposed dominance in world affairs. 2/
The document asserts that most of humanity is interested in constructive relations with #Russia and that a desired multipolar world will give opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 31
#Putin remains unlikely to deploy newly conscripted troops to participate in combat in #Ukraine due to concerns for the stability of his regime. 1/

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#Putin’s use of conscripts during the winter-spring period of 2022 sparked social tensions in #Russia, and Putin is unlikely to risk his regime’s stability by deploying newly conscripted servicemen to the frontlines. 2/
The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and #Putin even publicly instructed Russian authorities to investigate alleged incidents of Russian conscript deployments to #Ukraine on March 9, 2022 (which were technically illegal at that time). 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 31
NEW: #Russian President Vladimir #Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,000 Russians between April 1 and July 15.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar033023 ImageImageImageImage
#Russia conducts two conscription cycles per year with the spring conscription cycle usually conscripting 134,000 #Russian men.

Russia may use #Belarus’ training capacity to support the increase of 13,000 conscripts from previous years.

isw.pub/UkrWar033023
The start of the new conscription period, even with a slightly increased number of conscripts, may actually reduce #Russian training capacity for reservists and other personnel recruited via crypto-mobilization campaigns.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 30
#Russian authorities arrested Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) naval department head Colonel Sergey Volkov on Mar. 29 for corruption-related charges in connection with the sale of low-quality radar systems at heavily inflated prices. 1/

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The #Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and #Rosgvardia recently launched a criminal case against the Deputy Commander of the Rosgvardia’s Central District on March 20 for corruption-related charges. 2/
The criminal proceedings are notable because commanders of conventional #Russian forces have not been fired, let alone arrested, since the start of #Russia’s invasion of #Ukraine at the same rate or in such high-profile circumstances as the #Rosgvardia cases. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 29
NEW: #Wagner Group forces have likely taken the AZOM industrial complex in northern #Bakhmut and continue to make gains within the city.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar032823
#Russian milbloggers widely claimed on Mar. 28 that #Wagner fighters have captured the AZOM complex and are working to clear the area of remaining #Ukrainian forces.

These claims are relatively consistent with available visual evidence of Russian presence in the AZOM complex. 2/
#Wagner is likely working to consolidate gains in northern and central #Bakhmut to push towards the city center and expand its zone of control into western Bakhmut. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28
Southern #Ukraine update:

#Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in southern Ukraine.

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#Russian sources claimed on Mar. 27 that the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in the #Zaporizhia direction... [B]ut a Russian milblogger claimed on Mar. 21 that unspecified elements of the 136th are instead operating in the #Avdiivka direction. 2/
The apparent simultaneous commitment of elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade to two disparate areas of the frontline is notably not a doctrinally sound pattern of deployment. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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