As a combo blinded trial (FLV + inhaler), which one had benefit? Hard to know. In activ-6, we did not observe a benefit of inhaled fluticasone in a double blind RCT, yet UK Principle did see a benefit in open label trial with budesonide.
Importantly the #fluvoxamine dose studied here was 100mg 2x/day.
Covid-out and activ-6 both confirmed a lack of benefit of 50mg 2x/day dose.
If I gave someone 1/2 the effective dose of an HIV med & it didn't work, does that mean the med doesn't work? Or just dose was wrong?
What does this RCT mean?
In the US, it will be ignored as preventing vaccinated people from deteriorated to needing to go to the ER or being hospitalized is not viewed as beneficial to people -- per @US_FDA and NIH guidelines panel.
Do we not believe double blind RCTs anymore?
Instead of RCTs for expensive on-patent drug(s) that fails to show any benefit in a vaccinated population in a randomized clinical trial (EPIC-SR, Panoramic), we get guidelines and FDA labels for treatment of expansive non-studied populations based on case-control studies
Yet such a combo therapy is potentially important in low and middle income countries (LMIC)
Second basic scientists should be investigating the sigma-1 pathway that fluvoxamine dampens... as a possible sepsis therapy.
Fluvoxamine is not a perfect drug. It has drug-drug interactions, including with CAFFEINE. (Avoid caffeine).
Tolerability is a problem as 20-25% can't tolerate FLV.
But that receptor and pathway should be explored further for better host directed therapies.
Overall, for #covid19, I still think #metformin remains a good option. Low cost. Reduced 28-day risk of hospitalization by 57% and reduced risk of #longcovid by 41%.
Personally, I am not worried about being hospitalized, but I don't want long covid.
No paxlovid DDI
In a perfect world, I'd love to see a 2x2 factorial trial testing paxlovid vs. Metformin in a vaccinated population powered toward reduction of #longcovid incidence at 90 days.
Paxlovid + metformin could be a very interesting combo.
As above, this combo of FLV+ budesonide inhaler, I think is most relevant for LMIC settings for #covid19 but #metformin is another option as well (which I like better). Having options that MDs can discuss with patients is better than @WHO recommending unavailable therapies.
Overall, it's rather pointless to do randomized trials for #covid19 anymore, unless one is looking at trying to prevent #LongCovid or targeting immunocompromised persons who remain at risk.
Otherwise one has to run ~26000 person trials to show reduction in hospitalization.
But ACTIV-6 trial continues to enroll to look at whether medicines shorten duration of illness in a double blind trial format. Do people feel better faster? Activ6study.org
Do people feel better faster? Continues to be a relevant question.
Yet even if a medicine is shown to be effective at reducing symptoms, some will say -- well it doesn't reduce hospitalizations. If something reduces hospitalizations, then some will say -- it doesn't reduce death
Yet despite the nilism that some feel towards low cost repurposed medications, we slog onwards. ACTIV-6 currently is testing montelukast, a common asthma medicine to see if it reduce symptoms faster than placebo.
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@TogetherTrial has completed a sensitivity analysis for its metformin outpatient #COVID19 trial
Receiving metformin was NOT an exclusion criterion for the trial. Gving 1500mg/d on top of existing metformin was not great. Odds Ratio =1.35 for ER/hospital
But Odds Ratio=0.59 if not
The overall updated results of the trial testing metformin (after some data cleaning, rerunning the results), including people taking metformin at baseline who were then randomized to receive +1500mg/d metformin XR or blinded placebo on top of all their existing meds, was:
But the more interesting sensitivity analysis of the TogetherTrial #metformin #COVID19 double-blind randomized trail is only considering those 368 particiapnts NOT already receiving metformin at baseline. #IDTwitter
37% reduction in ER visits/hospitalizations sounds similar...
#Metformin RCT on 41% prevention of #LongCOVID with acute #COVID19 treatment is now published in @TheLancetInfDis at: doi.org/10.1016/S1473-…
N=1126 with long term follow up (~5% lost by 9mo)
10.4% vs. 6.3% LC incidence.
Double blind RCT using identical matched placebo.
Cost $1
The distribution of symptoms reported over time was similar as others have found. The figure (a new additional from the original pre-print) displays the freq of symptoms reported over 9 months among those wih a long covid diagnosis vs. no diagnosis.
#LongCovid symptoms interfered with both the ability to work and affected leisure activities in about half of those with LC. This very, very slowly decreased over time.
Metformin's benefit for #COVID19 is from an anti-viral effect.
3.6-fold greater reduction in #SARSCOV2 viral load over placebo equating to: -0.56 log10 copies/mL (95%CI, -1.05 to -0.06,p=0.027) #IDTwitter medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
We observed no virologic effect of #ivermectin at median of 430 mcg/kg/day x3 days or of low-dose #fluvoxamine at 50mg 2x/d.
Metformin Virologic Effect was generally consistent across subgroups, larger in the unvaccinated at -0.773 log10 copies/mL (95%CI, -1.408 to -.139)
Metformin is a $1 therapy.
At Day 5 antiviral effect over placebo was 0.47 log10 copies/mL for metformin, 0.30 log10 copies/mL for molnupiravir, & 0.80 log10 copies/mL for nirmatrelvir; and at Day 10 was 0.64 log10 copies/mL for metformin and 0.35 log10 copies/mL for nirmatrelvir
Metformin:
Statistically significant 42% ⬇️in ER visits & #COVID19 hospitalizations
Statistically significant 58% ⬇️in 28-day hospitalization
Statistically significant 41% ⬇️in #LongCOVID
Statistically significant -0.56 log10 copies/mL mean ⬇️in viral load at Day 5 &10
@NIHCOVIDTxGuide does not recommend metformin stating that COVID-Out trial did not demonstrate a benefit of metformin in reducing the risk of hospitalization or death in patients with COVID-19.
A very declarative statement. covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/misc…
Although these are all secondary endpoints of the COVID-Out trial, it is rather a stretch to be overly declarative to say that metformin did not reduce the risk of hospitalization. Guidelines panel do cite the 14-day mITT analysis, ignoring the 28-day data or ITT analysis.
#Paxlovid effect on reducing #COVID19 hospitalizations in vaccinated population finally revealed to the public by FDA. #IDTwitter
0.9% (3/317) paxlovid vs. 2.2% (7/314) placebo fda.gov/media/166197/d…
The relative risk reduction (RRR) of #covid19-related hospitalization was 57.5% (95%CI, -63% to 89%) with #Paxlovid in vaccinated high risk population.
Will point out that the the Hazard Ratio is also 58% for $1 of #metformin.
If one combines the EPIC-SR vaccinated + EPIC-HR seropositive groups together, then risk of #covid19 hospitalization was:
▪️ 0.5% (4/807) with #paxlovid
▪️ 1.9% (15/791) with placebo
Relative RIsk Reduction = 74% (95%CI, 22%-91%)
Number Needed to Treat = 71 (95%CI, 40-300)
Does #metformin reduce hospitalization or not? In a double-blind placebo controlled trial, 28-day data:
NIH guidelines cite the 14-day mITT data where there was not a statistical reduction.
The 14-day and 28-day ITT data also had a statistical reduction in hospitalization.
These numerical complete case data were published in NEJM.
"Through day 28, hospitalization or death occurred in 8 of 596 patients (1.3%) receiving metformin and in 19 of 601 controls (3.2%)"
(2.9% & 1.2% above are by Kaplan-Meier methodology). nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
While the authors were not allowed to highlight these data or put a p-value in, apparently there are a lot of poeple who can't run a chi-square or fisher's exact test -- as I keep hearing that metformin didn't reduce hospitalization in the COVID-Out trial.