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Cycle Bottom Profile picture
@BULLReturns
Apr 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
We would love to sit in privately held #coal companies getting 50% plus dividend yields for the next 20-30 years.
$500k investment and $250k dividends annually is a great pension annuity
$SBER < 50c DR entry (March 2022) equated to around a 300% dividend yield through 2026, likely payable for the next 50 years, capital gains >50x.

Mis-priced high dividend assets are great compounders.
South American #oilandgas companies are also looking mis-priced on dividend yield >20%

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More from @BULLReturns

Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Apr 15
How do avoid being financially stressed? Live within your means, focus on a high savings rate which leads to freedom. Never live paycheck to paycheck with your credit card as a bridge. Build a investment stack of $300k and learn how to compound at 20% plus.
Our cycle bottom approach allows compounding at 20-30%, resulting in the <30yrs retiring at around 50yrs.

Note our 10x10x10=1000x return thesis within 20yrs.
Things you don't need are plentiful until your investment stack has been achieved:
- no $1000 per month car payment, stick with the 15yr old car for another 5 years
- no Starbucks coffee required, make at home and bring with you
- self prepared picnic as opposed to eating out
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Apr 4
Up to 22% outperformance with peers on the day....wrong again, but don't worry someone's defamation lawyer will be in touch.
Context: Alan Davison, hiding behind a mask.
There is Alan the defamer without any substance, jealously is the motive?
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Apr 4
Thought of the day: Predicting cashflow generation 3-4 years out is a huge value add when selecting fresh asymmetric themes. For #commodities one is generally predicting spot price reversion to the mean. Entry cap should be <1x CF 3yrs out, our best performers <0.2x.
Examples:

$IREN entry cap <$80m .....peak CF > $250m

$BTU < $110m.....peak CF > $1.5bn

$RIG < $400m....peak CF > $2bn

$CKA < $20m....>$400m

$AEE < $15m.....>$250m

$WKT < $60m....>$120m
The fresh asymmetric themes return matrix over 5 years:

Entry <0.25x CF = 15-50x returns $AEE $BTU $RIG $CKA $IREN

0.5x = 8-15x $WKT

1x = 4-8x

2x = 2-4x

4x = <2x
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Apr 2
Thought of the day: Trolling is generally jealousy based, particularly when it focus' on one of the best performers in a sector Vs the troller's stock selections. They hate it when you continue to hold the stock, in fact net buyer. We power ahead unfazed given the higher ground.
The truth will set us free.... twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
I'm sorry if owning the stocks we have a thesis for is not the appropriate action, we see it as backing our view, putting our wallet with our mouth and having skin in the game. We don't charge for pointing out compelling cycle bottoms as the positions are enough reward.
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Mar 23
Realities with 75% of nano cap #gold explorers, or potential pre-production plays:

- lifestyle operations for the CEO/chairman
- burning matches, dilution can be 95% prior to achieving much
- timeframes of 1 year become 4 rather quickly
- require huge margin of safety for entry
What sort of margin of safety do we hear you ask?
- Cap < 5% NPV < 30% resource
- Cap < 25% of optimized annual cashflow
- IRR > 100% at $2500 spot
- Insider ownership > 20%
- Independent due diligence on Financing to verify DFS
- Cap/oz < $4
Even with all the above 40% will likely drop over.

Hence ensure one doesn't over pay and have a spread of 5 holdings in the theme.
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Mar 22
Thought of the day: Recency bias from #commodity peak when everything in the rear vision mirror looks "solid" is an optical illusion, around the bend a cliff is coming into sight a "recession", often stockprices drop 75% plus. Demand can get slaughtered at the margin.
#lithium & #coal are great case studies for those of our followers who don't understand nothing is rare at 80% cash margins and 20% cost.

#cyclicalinvesting101
While balance sheets are materially improved on 2020 levels, so few 95% corrections, but 50-65% are still reality with 75% spot falls from peaks.
Read 4 tweets

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