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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 3 • 4 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks in the #Avdiivka area on May 2. ISW has not observed recent visual evidence of successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Avdiivka area, however. isw.pub/UkrWar050223 Image
2/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in #Marinka (27km SW of #Avdiivka) and conducted a partially successful counterattack towards #Vodayne (8km SW of Avdiivka).
3/ Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked east of Troitske (17km northeast of #Avdiivka) and advanced 1.5km in the area.
4/ #Ukrainian forces conduct periodic limited localized counterattacks in the #Avdiivka area and the claimed Ukrainian advances are likely part of this ongoing pattern. isw.pub/UkrWar050223

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 4
Russian sources continue to disproportionately amplify claims of routine Ukrainian activity along the #Zaporizhia Oblast frontline in order to suggest that the Ukrainian #counteroffensive may have already begun. isw.pub/UkrWar050323 Image
2/ #Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed on May 3 that a mechanized Ukrainian group “went on the offensive” south of Orikhiv and reported that Russian forces stopped the advance and forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw.
3/ Rogov has made frequent claims over the past few months that Ukrainian forces are preparing to launch a counteroffensive in #Zaporizhia Oblast and has frequently used such claims to further information operations, as ISW has previously assessed.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 3
NEW: #Russia accused #Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the #Kremlin on May 3.

Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience & set conditions for a wider societal mobilization.🧵1/7

Latest: isw.pub/UkrWar050323 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Several indicators suggest that the #KremlinStrike was internally conducted and purposefully staged. isw.pub/UkrWar050323
3/ RU authorities have recently taken steps to increase RU domestic air defense capabilities, including within #Moscow itself. Geolocated imagery from Jan. shows that RU authorities have been placing air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 3
Russian forces made marginal gains near #Bakhmut but didn't advance within the city itself on May 2.

Geolocated footage posted on May 1 indicates that Russian forces made marginal gains NE of the O0506 highway near #Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar050223 Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Ivanivske and Predtechyne.

Ukrainian Eastern Grouping of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that there were 17 combat clashes in the #Bakhmut area.
3/ Cherevaty also reported that Ukrainian forces periodically attack Russian positions in #Bakhmut when they see opportunities to conduct assaults that would not endanger their troops and noted that Ukrainian counterattacks are part of the Ukrainian mobile defense in Bakhmut.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 3
Eastern #Kharkiv/Western #Luhansk Update:

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on May 2 with no confirmed changes to control of terrain. isw.pub/UkrWar050223 Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove), Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (11km south of Kreminna).
3/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna) and Torske (16km west of Kreminna).
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 1
Apr. 30 Assessment Highlight:

#Putin’s affinity for rotating personnel and not outright dismissing commanders is emblematic of his style of domestic rule, a style of leadership not well suited for leading a military engaged in a costly war. 1/4

isw.pub/UkrWar043023 Image
#Putin has long rotated personnel in government positions as a way to ensure that no one figure amasses too much political influence and to maintain support among competing factions. 2/4
#Putin also routinely avoids outright dismissing officials and instead temporarily demotes them in order to encourage them to seek to regain his favor and to retain options for future appointments. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Apr 28
.@nataliabugayova: The #Kremlin’s ability to sustain a long war in #Ukraine is not a given — it disproportionately depends on whether #Russia gets the time and space to rebuild its capabilities. 🧵(1/8) isw.pub/LongWarDebate
2/ #Russia’s ability to reconstitute its military capability is constrained. The #Kremlin is trying to replenish its resources but is still pursuing half-measures. Enabling further successful Ukrainian counteroffensives will deny the Kremlin a breather to replenish its resources.
3/ Space and time could enable #Russia to reconstitute its capabilities. Space=Ukrainian territory Russia gets to use as a staging ground. Time=a breather on the battlefield from a premature cessation of hostilities or a slowed counteroffensive due to insufficient Western aid.
Read 8 tweets

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