◽️ Drone Attack on the #Kremlin: The ease with which the heart of the #Russian state was penetrated raises questions about who was behind the raid, how it was possible to evade air defences, why the Kremlin was quick to admit its vulnerability, and what the response will be.
Some observers even suspect the attack to be a false flag to justify further escalation. We explain the Kremlin's reaction, its underlying logic, and the political repercussions for the elite and society.
◽️ #Prigozhin and the Politicization of Patriots: The main topic of this section is Prigozhin's threat to withdraw from #Bakhmut. Is it a bluff or a genuine intention?
We explore the nature of the ammunition shortage – whether it's due to the General Staff's anti-Wagner stance or a result of rationing in anticipation of Ukraine's counter-attack.
We also reveal the Russian elite and leadership's attitude toward Prigozhin's moves and examine his political ambitions. In this context, we explain the Kremlin's intentions towards patriots and their political prospects.
◽️ Fortum and Uniper Assets Disposal: The Kremlin has temporarily transferred control over #Finland's Fortum and #Germany's Uniper assets in #Russia to the state agency Rosimushchestvo.
We discuss the multi-layered rationale behind this decision, the general rules shaping the treatment of foreign assets, and the circumstances under which foreign companies may face significant risks of nationalisation.
As always, our analysis is supplemented with social data, recent studies, and exclusive information from our sources. We also provide our recommended reading for a deeper understanding of Russian politics.
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◽️ Digital Summons for Military Service: This is the key topic of the bulletin, which we examine in detail.
We first look at the practical side of things - how the new rules will work, which digital registers will be used for drafting, how different bodies will interact to maintain the data, and who the key players were in deliberating the bill.
Vladimir Kara-Murza has been sentenced to 25 years in prison. A thread 🧵 on the state of law, political prosecution, and treason in #Russia
Such a long term is due to charges of treason: the case was qualified under Article 275 of the Criminal Code due to three public speeches by Kara-Murza criticizing the #Russian authorities — in Lisbon, Helsinki, and Washington.
As the lawyer Vadim Prokhorov told "Kommersant," this is the first case when the new, expanded version of the article on treason has been applied —
In her most recent article for @CEIP_Politika, @Stanovaya addresses the issue of the Russian Elites’ dissatisfaction with the war, the effects it is having on Russia, and Putin in general and what this could mean for them and the government. A thread 🧵 carnegieendowment.org/politika/89480
The leaked recording of a conversation between alleged #Russian elites has sparked interest in the hidden dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in #Russia, including the war in Ukraine.
The conversation revealed the elites' true attitudes towards #Putin and the war, with many feeling that Putin has failed Russia. Regardless of ideology, Russian elites are united in their conviction that Putin must win the war.
Regarding the explosion in #Prigozhin's cafe and the death of #Tatarsky, enough is already known: anti-war activist Darya Trepova, who allegedly claimed to be working for "Ukrainian journalists" and planned to emigrate, carried out the task – 1/
she brought a statuette to event Z, where one of the most famous pro-war bloggers performed. It cannot be excluded that she did not know about the bomb, although she probably consider that option. 2/
Her subsequent actions suggest that no one had prepared her for a quick escape after the attack, which means she may have been used unwittingly. 3/
Evan Gershkovich, a correspondent for @WSJ - Wall Street Journal - who has been living in Moscow for six years, has been detained in Yekaterinburg on suspicion of espionage. An important Thread 🧵 @evangershkovich
The #FSB believes that the journalist "was collecting information on behalf of the United States about one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex, which constitutes a state secret."
This is, of course, shocking. Let's wait to see what the FSB specifically presents, but it appears that they have taken a hostage.
According to the leak, Nikolai Patrushev informed #Putin of the reasons for the security services to "neutralize" the #Wagner Group.
The ISW states that it has not observed any information suggesting these discussions took place, nor has it captured any speculation in the Russian information space about them.