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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
@TimInHonolulu
May 16 • 5 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. #Ukraine continues shaping operations south of #Bakhmut. As the #Russian forces are focused on the center of Bakhmut and seek to advance on Ukrainian forces in the city, Ukraine continues to prepare what appears be a move to surround the seemingly oblivious Russians.
2. Today, Ukraine in control of high ground, commenced artillery strikes on a broad area of the southern Russian-held territory in possible preparation for an advance. By hitting rear areas Ukraine eliminates Russian reserve forces & puts their supplies and ammunition at risk. Image
3. In addition to the artillery strikes, Ukraine is conducting aerial reconnaissance that resulted in destruction of a Russian anti-air system as far away as #Kodema. Image
4. Ukraine again attacked #Luhansk with #StormShadow missiles in combination with ADM-160 MALD decoys and destroyed a dormitory at the #AviationAcademy that is believed to house Russian military forces near the old Luhansk airbase. I question whether the base Image
5. is perhaps being used by Russian aviation forces to conduct helicopter missions. The runway appears too short to accommodate fighters. From a strategic perspective a strike that takes out Russian pilots and ground crews would be worth the use of these new weapon systems. Image

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 17
1. #Parlatore is leaving, so everyone guesses that his relationship to the Mar-a-Lago searches, that made him a witness, was likely the reason for the outwardly amical departure.
2. But just to keep a jaundiced-eye peeled for misdirection, I looked at Mr. Parlatore's history and found a few nuggets that convinced me we may not be on the right track.
3. In addition to representing Trump, Parlatore has also represented Trump-related clients and at least two of his clients received Trump pardons and both had connections with Rudy Giuliani. Image
Read 11 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 17
1. As #Russian commanders expend more forces to take the last #Ukrainian-held area of western #Bakhmut city, the #Ukrainians may be quietly disengaging from the city and instead focusing on a strategy to turn Russian-held Bakhmut into a massive kill zone.
2. The propaganda value to Russian leadership of being able to finally announce taking Bakhmut after over a year of massive casualties may be short-lived if the Ukrainian strategy works. Rather than waste more soldiers and material in beating back the waves
3. of Wagner attackers, Ukraine appears to have chosen to seek the envelopment the Russian position in Bakhmut while the Russians are laser-focused solely on advancing towards what may be a pyrrhic victory of occupying a totally-destroyed Bakhmut city.
Read 6 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 16
1. Worth noting: In the #Dunphy lawsuit against #RudyGiuliani the plaintiff alleges that, in what appears to be in early 2019, while Giuliani was still Trump's attorney, #RudyGiuliani admitted to Noelle Dunphy that he and #45 were conspiring to sell pardons. Image
2. It's significant that these allegations were made in a "verified complaint" thus they were made under penalty of perjury. As Trump's attorney they can be considered to be Trump's own admissions and are not hearsay. The allegations were stated as personal knowledge Image
3. and IMO could be used to establish the basis for a criminal investigation and support a finding of probable cause. I would think the finances of someone like #ElliottBroidy along with Giuliani and the the Trump crime family might be worth looking at to see if Broidy
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 16
1. Durham was either walled from proof or simply lied about Trump-Kremlin FISA probable cause. I have evidence that the Trump team were communicating via Twitter with an obvious Kremlin source about the email dumps. Durham mentions Twitter twice about one Hillary Clinton post.
2. Durham admits that Trump had long history of Kremlin connections enough to deny anyone a security clearance. Flynn, Manafort & Carter Page all met the probable cause standard for agents of a foreign power. Durham cleverly used the FISA Congressional record to make it appear Image
3. FISA is the same as the criminal standard. I'm actually shocked we didn't obtain a FISA order on Trump himself. With evidence pointing to his engaging in espionage related to Mar-a-Lago document theft, I have concluded that Durham's goal was to deter @FBIWFO from pursuing
Read 5 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 15
1. In the battle for #Bakhmut, Ukraine destroyed the final Russian group trapped in a pocket south of #Ivanivske. With no hope of relief and reportedly cut off from communications with the Russian command, the encircled Russian force south of Ivanivske was totally destroyed. Image
2. Ukraine now has options to move on #Klishchiivka and on to #Zaitseve and eventually to #VeselaDolyna perhaps forming the the southern pincer of a Ukrainian Bakhmut envelopment while, at the same time, the northern force moves on #Yahidne to form the northern pincer. Image
3. The Russian command continues to attack at the center of the Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut, as evidenced by the Firms fires, while the Russian flanks are being steadily enveloped.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 14
1. The war comes to #Luhansk. Far from the front, Luhansk city has been beyond the range of Ukrainian missiles so it is used for Russian and LNR command and logistics. In the past two days, Ukraine has attacked structures there used to repair Russian weapons and command centers. Image
2. Russia confirms UK Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used in the attacks. Russia also confirms the Storm Shadow attacks were coordinated with US supplied ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy missiles (MALD)s. Image
2. Developed in the 90s by DARPA these inexpensive MALD decoys can be programmed to mimic any aircraft and create a dilemma for Russian anti-air defense operators who have to commit their dwindling defensive system to pursue harmless decoys while the real attack with Storm Shadow
Read 6 tweets

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