Thread by @TheStudyofWar

NEW: Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the #Bakhmut area despite #Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks. 🧵(1/9)

Latest w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar051623

2/ #Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on May 16 that Russian forces have strengthened their forces in the #Bakhmut area to stabilize the situation...

3/ ...and a prominent Russian milblogger claimed that four unspecified Russian battalions have deployed to the flanks around #Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs.

4/ The Russian MoD claimed on May 16 that elements of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps) repelled 10 Ukrainian counterattacks near #Ivanivske (6km west of #Bakhmut).

5/ Russian claims about Russian reinforcements are consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s May 15 statement that Russian forces are deploying additional airborne (VDV) forces to defend #Bakhmut’s flanks, presumably from other areas of the front.

6/ Russian forces have continued to make marginal gains within #Bakhmut itself as of May 16, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to claim that Russian forces around Bakhmut are focused on repelling Ukrainian counterattacks.

7/ Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that #Ukraine is pursuing much more limited operations in the #Bakhmut area than Russian forces, who appear to be committed to Bakhmut as a renewed main effort.

8/ ISW has geolocated footage published on May 16 of Ukrainian positions in southwestern #Bakhmut that suggests that Ukrainian forces have recently made limited gains in the city itself.

9/ Geolocated footage published on May 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of #Bakhmut), although ISW has not observed any further Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut as of May 16. isw.pub/UkrWar051623