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May 17 6 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Southern #Ukraine:

Russian forces are continuing to panic about maintaining their positions in the east (left) bank #Kherson Oblast ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian #counteroffensive.

Russian & Ukrainian sources reported explosions in #Tokmak on May 16. isw.pub/UkrWar051623 ImageImage
2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published a video on May 15 claiming that Russian airborne (VDV) artillery units are shelling Ukrainian infantry units in forested areas on the eastern bank of the #Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast.
3/ A #Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that there are ”witch hunts” among Russian troops in #Kherson Oblast because many accuse each other of exposing Russian positions to Ukrainian forces by cooperating with Russian volunteers or reporting about the situation on the ground.
4/ #Ukraine reported that RU forces launched 4 KAB-500 bombs from 4 Su-35 fighter aircraft at Beryslav and Kizomys on the west (right) bank of the #Dnipro River. RU forces also shelled the west bank #Kherson Oblast 86 times and used incendiary munitions to target Kherson City.
5/ Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions in #Tokmak on May 16. #Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov accused Ukrainian forces of shelling Tokmak, while Ukrainian #Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov did not specify the reason for the explosion.
6/ Ukrainian state nuclear company Enerhoatom reported that Russian forces are intensifying security measures at the #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and are increasing military presence at the facility. isw.pub/UkrWar051623

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More from @TheStudyofWar

May 19
"Deepening Iranian economic influence in #Syria will help Iranian leaders revitalize their own economy, especially if Arab states begin to send investment and reconstruction funds to Syria."

Latest #Iran Update from ISW & @criticalthreats: understandingwar.org/backgrounder/i…
2/ The Iran Update by ISW and CTP aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to #Iran and its Axis of Resistance.
3/ This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime.
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May 19
#WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin and #Wagner sources have long indicated Wagner’s intent to encircle #Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces but proved unable to do so after the Ukrainian military command decided to defend the city. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar051823
2/ #WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that #Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in #Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of the city. isw.pub/UkrWar051823
3/ #Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of losing advantageous positions after MoD-subordinated units retreated from their positions on #Bakhmut’s flanks necessary for an encirclement.
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May 19
The limited nature of #Wagner’s ongoing offensive operations in #Bakhmut compared to the localized Ukrainian counterattacks underscores the loss of Russian initiative in the area. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar051823 Image
2/ ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the #Bakhmut area in order to augment #Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
3/ UKR Eastern Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on May 18 that UKR forces regained the battlefield initiative & are forcing RU forces to respond to UKR actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne elements to Bakhmut’s flanks in response to UKR advances.
Read 8 tweets
May 19
NEW: Ukrainian forces seized the tactical initiative & made tactically significant gains around #Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are part of localized UKR counter-attacks & do not reflect the start of a major new operation. isw.pub/UkrWar051823 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of #Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.
3/ The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti (15km north of #Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered the settlement.
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May 18
Geolocated footage posted on May 17 shows that #Wagner Group forces made incremental advances in southwestern #Bakhmut. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar051723 Image
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May 18
The #Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar051723
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3/ ...whom Russian authorities reportedly arrested in the past year under suspicion of committing “high treason.”

The letter also noted that these arrests deter the younger generation from pursuing careers in science.
Read 4 tweets

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