Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 19 6 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. Thursday saw #Russian tactical situation worsen around #Bakhmut. Despite #Prigozhin's warnings to the Russian command of the need to reinforce Russian flank at #SakkoiVantsetti, the updated map indicates that Ukraine opened this new line of attack and was already successful. Image
2. The loss of this key position will allow the Ukrainians to move south towards #Bakhmut over very favorable ground. In preparation Ukraine conducted artillery strikes on #Paraskoviika and #Krasnopolivka.
In the south Wagner moved to reinforce the approach to #Klishchiivka with
3. prisoner and mobilized forces that quickly suffered heavy casualties from HIMARS strikes. While the Russian north and southern flanks continue to disintegrate, the Ukrainians have apparently begun a tactic of falling back, out the the area of expected Russian artillery Image
4. strikes on western Bakhmut citadel to then return after the shelling stops and when the Russian force seeks to advance. By securing the roads to Bakhmut, Ukraine has the ability to rapidly move force in response to the Russian attacks, confounding #Prigozhin's hope to
5. take Bakhmut city by week's end. After waiting several days after Prigozhin raised the alarm about the flanks, the Russian command has begun to move forces from other parts of the front including #Zaporizhia, #Adviivka & #Marinka to shore-up the flanks around Bakhmut that may Image
6. encourage Ukraine to increase the pace of attack in these now-weakened areas. There is also report of Russian forces and equipment deploying to #Luhansk from #Belarus, perhaps explaining the recent #StormShadow attacks on Russian army facilities in Luhansk city.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

May 21
1. As the final Ukrainian forces withdrew from #Bakhmut towards #Ivaniske Russia continued to send forces to reinforce Bakhmut's flanks giving #Ukrainian #HIMARS crews many opportunities to attack and destroy Russian troops and equipment in transit.
2. Friday's attack on the Russian forces near #Mariupol turned out to be an underground command and control HQ for #Vuhledar and #Zaporizhia forces that resulted in the deaths of 24 Russian forces and 37 wounded. More long-range strikes on other targets in an around Image
3. #Mariupol resulted in large losses of equipment. Strike reported in #Tokmak was confirmed but awaits details. In #Donetsk HIMARS strikes destroyed as many as 10 T-90 tanks east of Mar'inka. Rapid redeployment of Russian forces has given Ukraine many targets of opportunity. Image
Read 6 tweets
May 20
1. As I had guessed, the attack near the airport in Mariupol killed 150 Russian troops in these buildings. Ukraine has begun to strike Russian forces forming in large numbers to be sent to Bakhmut as the battle for control continues amid the failing Russian flanks. Image
2. Ukraine has begun to focus on destroying rail lines supplying Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Today Ukraine used a small drone swarm to strike near the Russian rail hub at ##Dzhankoi in northern #Crimea causing a derailment on the critical rail line. Image
3. This followed a claimed sabotage attack on a rail line further south in Crimea near #Simferopol at #Chystenke that also caused a derailment. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 19
1. U.S. Will Support F-16 Training for Ukraine nytimes.com/live/2023/05/1…
2. We have already supplied Ukraine with components of a US doctrine air-superiority campaign. They have HARMS but lack the US planes to use them to their full capability. They have MALDS that are being used in Luhansk that mimic aircraft to draw the Russian
3. anti-air missiles to fire at drones. We would deploy JSOW glide bombs to use to take out the missile batteries. SDBS can also fit that role. The last piece is US fighter aircraft to launch the HARMs, SDBs and take on the Russian fighter aircraft.
Read 4 tweets
May 18
1. With the #Ivanivske road supply-line reopened, #Wanger forces can't hope to starve the remaining #Ukrainian forces fighters like they did in #Mariupol. #Prigozhin, fearful of encirclement, announced he was going to withdraw but the Kremlin threatened him with treason charges. Image
2. So Prigozhin is likely to increase the pace in hopes of defeating the Ukrainian force but there's little evidence he will succeed. At the end of a few days Prigozhin is expected to declare victory and turn Bakhmut's over to the Russian army
3. and try to escape with his mercenary army what he knows is a likely encirclement.

Wednesday saw more Ukrainian advances mostly in the area to the south approaching #Klishchiivka that could be in play soon. Ukrainian forces moving towards Klishchiivka advanced so fast that Image
Read 6 tweets
May 17
1. #Parlatore is leaving, so everyone guesses that his relationship to the Mar-a-Lago searches, that made him a witness, was likely the reason for the outwardly amical departure.
2. But just to keep a jaundiced-eye peeled for misdirection, I looked at Mr. Parlatore's history and found a few nuggets that convinced me we may not be on the right track.
3. In addition to representing Trump, Parlatore has also represented Trump-related clients and at least two of his clients received Trump pardons and both had connections with Rudy Giuliani. Image
Read 11 tweets
May 17
1. As #Russian commanders expend more forces to take the last #Ukrainian-held area of western #Bakhmut city, the #Ukrainians may be quietly disengaging from the city and instead focusing on a strategy to turn Russian-held Bakhmut into a massive kill zone.
2. The propaganda value to Russian leadership of being able to finally announce taking Bakhmut after over a year of massive casualties may be short-lived if the Ukrainian strategy works. Rather than waste more soldiers and material in beating back the waves
3. of Wagner attackers, Ukraine appears to have chosen to seek the envelopment the Russian position in Bakhmut while the Russians are laser-focused solely on advancing towards what may be a pyrrhic victory of occupying a totally-destroyed Bakhmut city.
Read 6 tweets

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