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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 19 • 4 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Russia conducted another large-scale missile strike across #Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18, targeting #Kyiv for the ninth time since the beginning of May. isw.pub/UkrWar051823
2/ Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 22 Kh-101/555 air-launched cruise missiles, six Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles from Black Sea vessels, and two Iskander-K ground-launched cruise missiles at #Kyiv, #Odesa, and #Mykolaiv cities.
3/ Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed 29 cruise missiles, two Shahed-136/131 drones, and two reconnaissance drones.
4/ Russian forces are likely attempting to use reconnaissance drones after launching missile strikes to locate #Patriot air defense systems. isw.pub/UkrWar051823

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 21
Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if #Wagner mercenaries remain in #Bakhmut. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian forces continue to transfer airborne, motorized rifle, and special forces elements to reinforce the #Bakhmut flanks even as Wagner forces remain in Bakhmut City.
3/ The UK MoD also reported that the Russian military command likely redeployed several battalions to reinforce Bakhmut despite only having a few uncommitted combat units and that this redeployment suggests a substantial commitment to the Bakhmut effort by the Russian leadership.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 21
🧵 #Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from #Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar052023
2/ #Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in #Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25 even if #Prigozhin’s announcement of Wagner’s withdrawal is true.
3/ Ukrainian forces are still engaging Russian forces in and near #Bakhmut, and Ukrainian artillery can still target Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 21
Ukrainian forces are continuing to pressure #Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that fighting is ongoing on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks in the directions of Ivanivske, Stupochky, and Bila Hora. (1/5) isw.pub/UkrWar052023 Image
2/ Ukrainian forces reported on May 19 that they have recaptured approximately four square kilometers of additional territory near #Bakhmut, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continue conducting localized attacks near Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).
3/ #Prigozhin’s claimed capture of the remaining blocks in #Bakhmut is not strategically significant as it will not allow exhausted Wagner or conventional Russian forces to establish a meaningful springboard for further offensive operations.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 21
#Prigozhin claimed that #WagnerGroup forces completely captured #Bakhmut City on May 20, seizing the last multi-story apartment building in SW Bakhmut near the MiG-17 monument. ISW hasn't observed geolocated footage confirming Prigozhin’s claims as of today's publication. (1/6) Image
2/ #Prigozhin announced that #Wagner forces will establish defensive positions before transferring responsibility for the city to Russian conventional forces on May 25. isw.pub/UkrWar052023
3/ #Prigozhin effectively stated that #Wagner forces will conduct an operational pause by resting and restoring combat power at field training camps in unspecified areas, presumably far from the frontline.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 20
"It's going to have a terrible effect on morale for the Russian forces, officers, and commanders who are going to be operating within #Ukraine."

@TheStudyofWar #Russia analyst @georgewbarros spoke with @insidermildef about the impact of #StormShadow missiles on Russian tactics:
2/ "#Ukraine used the HIMARS to degrade the effectiveness of #Russia's battlefield tactic, which depended heavily on Moscow's ability to stage massive amounts of artillery shells near the front line to sustain a high rate of fire, [@georgewbarros] said.
3/ "To mitigate their new problem, Russian forces had to move their ammunition back outside the range of the HIMARS to prevent it from being destroyed."
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 20
A Ukrainian source reported that elements of 2 spetsnaz brigades of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) have deployed to border areas of #Kursk Oblast in #Russia to conduct counter-sabotage activities & provocations. (1/5) twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated on May 19 that the 3rd and 22nd Guards Special Purpose brigades have deployed to Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast to prevent cross-border Ukrainian partisan activities, carry out cross-border provocations, and raise the morale of Russian forces.
3/ ISW has previously assessed that such Russian deployments to border areas are likely an attempt to fix a portion of Ukrainian forces to border regions and disperse them from critical frontline areas.
Read 5 tweets

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