2/ In Hungary, Russia used three important tools to increase her influence, eventually enabling Orbán’s autocratization:
1) Demoralization in front of the totalitarian heritage (inadequate #lustration) 2) Corrupt networks of the ancien regime 3) Organized crime with Russian ties
3/ While Finland was never a communist dictatorship, all the elements above were present in the country after the Cold War.
4/ …and yet, staying outside NATO was directly caused by the presence of these networks.
Unlike in Hungary and many other countries, there was no ”transitional opposition” nor national ”pro-Western consensus” in Finland.
So we kind of ”just went on”.
5/ The reason most Finns have not been aware of the extent of the #Kremlin influence and #corruption is not only that the issue has been a political taboo, but also the fact that on the lower level, Finnish life was fully #Nordic.
No one tries to bribe a police officer in 🇫🇮.
6/ Yet we are finally able to read from the press and brand new books about how corrupt elements within #Supo (the Security Police of Finland) had conspirative contacts with #Russia n oligarchs & their business partners, even facilitating #Putin’s friend’s citizenship process.
7/ Most problems date back to the Cold War era and two men with a close KGB relationship: the President of Finland, Mauno Koivisto (1982-1994), and the head of Supo, Seppo Tiitinen (1978-1990).
They closed the archives. It is the main reason behind 30 years of stagnation in 🇫🇮.
8/ Many people hope the upcoming cabinet will finally reveal what has been hidden.
The first party, @kokoomus, officially supports the publication of the so-called Tiitinen’s list. The same applies to Kokoomus’ primary foreign policy negotiator, Elina Valtonen.
9/ What comes next will be a litmus test for the reliability of Finland as a NATO ally.
There are certainly some individuals with contrasting interests taking part in the negotiations.
But do they really want to reveal themselves?
We will see what happens.
P.S.
For Finnish speakers (I hope there will be an English translation, too): the issues are largely covered in my new book, Autopsy of Post-Finlandization (Jälkisuomettumisen ruumiinavaus, 2023).
1/ WHAT WOULD THE SECOND TRUMP TERM MEAN FOR #EUROPE, @NATO, AND #UKRAINE?
We do not know, but we can see the risks (and, in fact, also several opportunities).
THREAD 👇
🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸
2/ He may downgrade or, in extreme case, withdraw from #NATO.
We should not close our eyes from this. Instead, we should act.
#Europe must upgrade its military industry. Now.
The NATO members bordering Russia (🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱🇷🇴🇧🇬🇹🇷) must deepen bilateral ties with the #USA.
3/ The negotiations on the #EU membership of #Ukraine must be started & carried out efficiently to prevent a situation in which a potential policy change in the #USA drives a wedge between #Kyiv & #Brussels.
Any armistice/peace must be accepted by Ukrainians themselves.
1/ The increasing #China-#Russia cooperation (or alliance?) suggests we in #NATO countries should be more aware of the #Beijing networks of influence & #espionage than we currently are (the same applies to #Iran).
Sometimes these networks are even shared by the 3.
Example: 🇫🇮👇
2/ In 2014, the 🇨🇳🇷🇺 cooperation deepened.
One of its most important facilitators was Gennady Timtchenko, the alleged owner of #Redut PMC & a citizen of #Finland.
It seems the new #PMC is rapidly replacing #Wagner as a #Kremlin-loyal element in #Russia.
2/ Tiitinen ei omassa asiassaan ole luotettava lähde.
Hänen noustuaan #Supo n päälliköksi poliittisen vakoilun (ns. koti**ien) seuraaminen lopetettiin lähes täysin ja luotiin ennakkovaroitusjärjestelmä, ts. KGB-miehille ”vihjaistiin” ennen mahd. kiinnijäämistään.
#Lustraatio
3/ Jo Tiitisen edeltäjä Arvo Pentti (Mannerheim-ristin ritari, kyllä) oli itätiedustelun värväämä.
Tiitisen ensimatkaa Moskovaan KGB piti kuitenkin edeltäjäänsä onnistuneempana.
Aiheesta kirjoittanut ainakin professori Kimmo Rentola @TieteessaTapaht -lehdessä.
2/ Minulle olisi ollut helpompaa olla kirjoittamatta kirjaani Mykkäsistä. Meillä on paljon yhteisiä tuttavia, jotka joutuvat nyt mahdollisesti ikävään asemaan ja saattavat kokea painetta.
3/ En pyydä ketään ”valitsemaan puolia”, vaan kirjoitan asioista, joita pidän poliittisesti relevantteina.
Kai Mykkänen on puolueensa linjan mukaisesti kannattanut Nato-jäsenyyttä pitkään. Samoin hän ilmeisesti puhui kovempien Venäjä-pakotteiden puolesta.
2/ Tammikuussa menehtynyt Karasev (Sutyrin) kehuu teoksessaan etenkin Vikatmaata lämpimästi ja piti tiivistä yhteyttä Suomiseen.
Oikeasti kuitenkin kovapintainen KGB-mies, jonka pyynnöstä esimerkiksi presidentti Koivisto puuttui neuvostorahanpesun viranomaistutkintaan.
3/ Ilkka Suominen ei ollut missään tapauksessa yksiselitteinen hahmo. Puhuin kanssaan viimeisen kerran viikko ennen kuolemaansa idänkaupasta ja Viktor Vladimirovin taustasta KGB:n salamurhaosastolla. IS sanoi runebergiläisittäin: jotain ehkä tietäisin, olin siellä minäkin.
1/ Today, the distinguished professor and dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University Yan Xuetong gave a lecture at the University of Helsinki.
2/ One day after publishing my own ”Thick Red Book”, the discussion was even more inspiring as there were many overlapping topics, e.g. the role of small states in ”counter-globalization” (in Finnish):
a) Individuals define national interests while group-thinking accelerates trends
b) Populism, fundamentally xenophobic, is behind ”counter-globalization”