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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 23 • 5 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in #Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months. isw.pub/UkrWar052223
2/ Prigozhin claimed on May 21 – one day after he declared victory in Bakhmut City – that Wagner forces will give Russian conventional forces control of Bakhmut on May 25 and completely withdraw from the entire frontline by June 1 to rest and reconstitute over a two-month period.
3/ #Prigozhin also claimed that any reports of Wagner assault operations during that two-month period are fake unless he says otherwise.
4/ ISW previously assessed that #Wagner forces are unlikely to continue fighting beyond #Bakhmut due to severe depletion and the culmination of their offensive capabilities.
5/ The two-month reconstitution period #Prigozhin has announced could have #Wagner forces sitting out key parts of the Ukrainian counter-offensive depending on when and how it begins. isw.pub/UkrWar052223

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 24
The Battle of #Bakhmut exposed several key flaws in the Russian planning and conduct of operational maneuver. The #Kremlin’s fixation with Bakhmut also shows that #Russia has not learned lessons from the first phases of the war. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423

Bakhmut Retrospective🧵#2:
2/ The Russian military command continued to pursue a relentless assault on #Bakhmut after the city lost its original operational significance and failed to adjust its military objectives appropriately.
3/ The #Kremlin, evidently, chased after any potential victory to generate informational effects and allowed #Prigozhin to expend a large amount of Russian ammo and thousands of prisoner recruits, & then more professional forces to maintain a battle of no operational significance
Read 10 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 24
The seizure of #Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423

Key takeaways (and maps)🧵⬇️ Image
2/ Russian offensive operations in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk proved extremely costly and slow, forcing the Russian military command to deprioritize the wide encirclement in #Donetsk Oblast in order to complete the seizure of those two cities. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423 Image
3/ #Russia reprioritized the Battle for #Bakhmut in July-August 2022, following the culmination of Russian attacks on the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line. Wagner began assaults on settlements east and SE of Bakhmut, using Russian-occupied territories as springboards for the attack. Image
Read 12 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 23
NEW: Elements of the all-Russian pro-#Ukrainian #Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into #Belgorod Oblast, #Russia on May 22.

More on the raid in tonight's assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar052223 Image
2/ Russian sources reported on the morning of May 22 that a detachment of the RDK & LSR consisting of several armored vehicles crossed the international border & captured Kozinka, a settlement in the Grayvoron region of #Belgorod Oblast within 600m of the border with Sumy Oblast.
3/ Russian sources claimed that the grouping then captured the settlements of Glotovo and Gora Podol (3km and 5km from the border, respectively)...
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 22
🧵ISW previously forecasted that #WagnerGroup's offensive operations in #Bakhmut would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that #Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut in its current depleted state. (1/9) isw.pub/UkrWar052123
2/ ISW assessed that #Wagner forces were nearing culmination when they decided to fight through #Bakhmut City.
3/ #Wagner forces were enabled to continue offensive operations past that culmination point as Russian regular forces took responsibility for #Bakhmut’s flanks, allowing Wagner to concentrate on the urban fight.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 22
#Ukrainian military sources reported that #Russian forces lost part of the dominant heights around #Bakhmut and noted that sustained Ukrainian advances could lead to a tactical encirclement of #Wagner forces in Bakhmut. (1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar052123 Image
2/ The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade stated on May 20 that the brigade’s counterattacks have expanded the Ukrainian salient in the #Bakhmut area to 1,750 meters wide by 700 meters deep in an unspecified area.
3/ Geolocated footage shows the brigade striking unspecified Russian forces south of Klishchiivka (7km SW of #Bakhmut), and engaging with the Russian 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 14th Army Corps (Northern Fleet) northeast of Bohdanivka (5km NW of Bakhmut).
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 22
#Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces control an “insignificant” part of southwestern #Bakhmut City around the T0504 highway — a tacit acknowledgment that #Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut if not all of it. Image
2/ These officials’ statements indicate that Ukrainian forces withdrew from the remaining areas in #Bakhmut except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. isw.pub/UkrWar052123
3/ Geolocated footage published on May 21 showed #WagnerGroup forces raising #Russian and #Wagner flags over a residential building in westernmost #Bakhmut.
Read 6 tweets

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