ISW Profile picture
May 24 12 tweets 8 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The seizure of #Bakhmut was originally intended to facilitate Russian offensives to encircle large Ukrainian forces in the east and specifically to take the large and fortified city of Slovyansk from multiple directions. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423

Key takeaways (and maps)🧵⬇️ Image
2/ Russian offensive operations in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk proved extremely costly and slow, forcing the Russian military command to deprioritize the wide encirclement in #Donetsk Oblast in order to complete the seizure of those two cities. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423 Image
3/ #Russia reprioritized the Battle for #Bakhmut in July-August 2022, following the culmination of Russian attacks on the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk line. Wagner began assaults on settlements east and SE of Bakhmut, using Russian-occupied territories as springboards for the attack. Image
4/ The successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022 that liberated Izyum ended the prospect of a wide encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the east, thus depriving the attacks on Bakhmut of operational significance. Image
5/ #Wagner mercenaries nevertheless intensified their offensives on #Bakhmut and fully committed to the Battle for Bakhmut in Fall 2022 likely to achieve informational and political rather than operational objectives. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423 Image
6/ The Russian MoD began to prepare for its own winter offensive operation in December 2022 and likely began to deprioritize support for #Wagner forces at that time. Wagner’s highly attritional offensives began to show signs of culmination by late December 2022 and in Jan 2023. Image
7/ The #WagnerGroup began committing its remaining forces to #Bakhmut between February and March to threaten Ukrainian forces into withdrawing from the city so as to avoid having to fight through it. Image
8/ The Ukrainian military blocked the Russian efforts to envelop or encircle #Bakhmut in March, forcing Wagner forces to fight through the city and suffer significant losses for the next two months. Image
9/ ISW assessed that the Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut was a strategically sound decision as Ukrainians would benefit from exhausting Wagner forces if they were able to retain control over the two GLOCs west of Bakhmut. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
10/ #Prigozhin has likely signaled the culmination of #Wagner forces in declaring victory in #Bakhmut on May 20 and announcing Wagner’s withdrawal from the city and plans to reconstitute on May 25, despite subsequent denials. Image
11/ The #Wagner Group’s announced two-month reconstitution period could have #Wagner forces sitting out key parts of the Ukrainian counteroffensive depending on when and how it begins. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423
12/ The Battle of Bakhmut exposed several key flaws in the Russian planning and conduct of operational maneuver. It is also not even clear that the Battle of Bakhmut is yet over. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423

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More from @TheStudyofWar

May 26
#Donetsk Axis Updates:

1. Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around #Bakhmut as #Wagner Group forces reportedly began their withdrawal from frontline areas of the city on May 25. isw.pub/UkrWar052523 Image
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have shifted their focus to the T0504 Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut and O0506 Khromove-Bakhmut highways and remarked that heavy fighting continues on the flanks of #Bakhmut.
The milblogger claimed that Russian forces are now trying to capture #Ivanivske and #Khromove (3km due west of #Bakhmut).
Read 6 tweets
May 26
#Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that Russian officials have created seven territorial defense battalions in Belgorod Oblast as of May 24, likely to posture his engagement in the defense of Russian border areas following the May 22 raid.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ Gladkov previously announced the creation of several territorial defense battalions in December 2022, and has likely re-upped discussion of them in response to increased anxiety in border areas following the raid.
3/ A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on May 24 that these battalions have a strong presence but are severely hindered by an inadequate weapons supply.
Read 6 tweets
May 26
#Russia and #Belarus signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement #Moscow’s de facto military control over #Minsk. isw.pub/UkrWar052523
2/ #Russia has not yet deployed nuclear weapons to #Belarus and their possible deployment is highly unlikely to presage any Russian escalation. isw.pub/UkrWar052523
3/ The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to #Belarus requires both significant military infrastructure and Russian command and control over elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces.
Read 4 tweets
May 25
May 24 Assessment Highlight:

The #Kremlin continues efforts to portray #Russia as having significant diplomatic partnerships. 1/4

isw.pub/UkrWar052423 Image
#Putin spoke to attendees of the 11th International Meeting of High Representatives for Security Issues in #Moscow on May 24 to deliver rhetoric accusing the West of generating instability & calling on Asian, African, & Latin American states to form a multipolar world order. 2/4
#Putin later attended the Eurasian Economic Forum in #Moscow alongside the presidents of #Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and the Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia. Putin also met w/ the president of Republika Srpska (the Serbian political entity w/i Bosnia & Herzegovina). 3/4
Read 4 tweets
May 24
NEW: Discussions regarding reported Russian losses in #Bakhmut have saturated the pro-war information space & are drowning out any remaining positive informational effect resulting from the city’s capture.

24 May update on #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats:
isw.pub/UkrWar052423 ImageImageImageImage
2/ The overall Russian information space response to the capture of #Bakhmut has fixated on attributing responsibility for its capture & speculating on the associated costs of the operation, depriving the Russian MoD of the oxygen necessary to positively frame the city’s capture.
3/ #Prigozhin is likely using his heightened profile following the capture of #Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites.
Read 4 tweets
May 24
The Battle of #Bakhmut exposed several key flaws in the Russian planning and conduct of operational maneuver. The #Kremlin’s fixation with Bakhmut also shows that #Russia has not learned lessons from the first phases of the war. isw.pub/Bakhmut052423

Bakhmut Retrospective🧵#2:
2/ The Russian military command continued to pursue a relentless assault on #Bakhmut after the city lost its original operational significance and failed to adjust its military objectives appropriately.
3/ The #Kremlin, evidently, chased after any potential victory to generate informational effects and allowed #Prigozhin to expend a large amount of Russian ammo and thousands of prisoner recruits, & then more professional forces to maintain a battle of no operational significance
Read 10 tweets

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