Thread by @atypicalalbertn

2023 #abvotes Prediction:

Some explanations first. There are 22 ridings “in-play”. 15 in Calgary and 7 elsewhere.

For safe ridings, UCP leads 37-28.
#ableg #abpoli

With decent confidence, I feel NDP will take Slave Lake, Banff-Kan, Sherwood Park, Strathcona-SP, Lethbridge East, Morinville-StA and 6 more in Calgary. UCP takes FtSk-Veg and 3 more in Calgary.

This brings us down to a virtual tie and 6 tight Cgy seats up for grabs.
#abvote

To call the next 6, I assumed the UCP are up by 3 in Calgary. I looked at 2019 results plus Abacus data on vote retention from 2019.

Here’s the thing. All of these ridings had strong Alberta Party support in 2019. With ABP vote collapsing, I see all 6 being close, but going NDP

My final prediction is that it will be VERY close. But I have it as:

🔸NDP - 46
🔹UCP - 41

#ableg #abpoli #abvotes #AbElection2023

And with Johnson being kept out of caucus, the standings in the legislature become 46-40-1.