2023 #abvotes Prediction:

Some explanations first. There are 22 ridings “in-play”. 15 in Calgary and 7 elsewhere.

For safe ridings, UCP leads 37-28.
#ableg #abpoli Image
With decent confidence, I feel NDP will take Slave Lake, Banff-Kan, Sherwood Park, Strathcona-SP, Lethbridge East, Morinville-StA and 6 more in Calgary. UCP takes FtSk-Veg and 3 more in Calgary.

This brings us down to a virtual tie and 6 tight Cgy seats up for grabs.
#abvote Image
To call the next 6, I assumed the UCP are up by 3 in Calgary. I looked at 2019 results plus Abacus data on vote retention from 2019.

Here’s the thing. All of these ridings had strong Alberta Party support in 2019. With ABP vote collapsing, I see all 6 being close, but going NDP
My final prediction is that it will be VERY close. But I have it as:

🔸NDP - 46
🔹UCP - 41

#ableg #abpoli #abvotes #AbElection2023 Image
And with Johnson being kept out of caucus, the standings in the legislature become 46-40-1.

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An important read from my friend and neighbour who isn’t on social media but wants to share this important story. He’s one of my heroes right now. This is his story.

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2/n #abed #ableg
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