Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #abvotes

Most recents (11)

Some people have the impression that the UCP won an 11-seat majority. Numerically, it's true - the UCP got 49 seats, the NDP 38. So, 11 more seats.
#ableg #abpoli #cdnpoli #abvotes #yyc #Yeg
But that's not a legislative majority. The house has 87 seats, Support from 44 MLAs is necessary to win a vote. The UCP has 49 seats; a legislative majority of five votes. Previous low for any government was 13 for the NDP in 2015. #ableg #abpoli #cdnpoli #abvotes #yyc #Yeg
And the five-seat majority is weaker than it looks. A speaker must be elected. The speaker is nominally impartial but can vote to break a tie. One MLA, Jennifer Johnson, will sit as an independent. #ableg #abpoli #cdnpoli #abvotes #yyc #Yeg
Read 5 tweets
Final thoughts on our @abacusdataca polling for #ableg #abvotes #abpoli:

The NDP had to do something very difficult in this election. It had to convince a lot of Albertans to vote NDP for the first time in their lives. They had to get them to go against their identities and……
Coming into this election, Danielle Smith was very much the focus of people’s attention. Her favourables were lower than Rachel Notley’s. Many past UCP voters were repelled by her, thought she was worse than Jason Kenney as Premier, and felt she was a risky prospect. It looked……
In the end, the structural advantages of a united conservative electorate t in Alberta meant the UCP was always the favourites to win the election. The NDP needed to center the election around healthcare, convince voters they had economic credibility, and persuade individuals…… Image
Read 9 tweets
2023 #abvotes Prediction:

Some explanations first. There are 22 ridings “in-play”. 15 in Calgary and 7 elsewhere.

For safe ridings, UCP leads 37-28.
#ableg #abpoli Image
With decent confidence, I feel NDP will take Slave Lake, Banff-Kan, Sherwood Park, Strathcona-SP, Lethbridge East, Morinville-StA and 6 more in Calgary. UCP takes FtSk-Veg and 3 more in Calgary.

This brings us down to a virtual tie and 6 tight Cgy seats up for grabs.
#abvote Image
To call the next 6, I assumed the UCP are up by 3 in Calgary. I looked at 2019 results plus Abacus data on vote retention from 2019.

Here’s the thing. All of these ridings had strong Alberta Party support in 2019. With ABP vote collapsing, I see all 6 being close, but going NDP
Read 5 tweets
My friends have been trying hard to fight disinformation on WeChat this #AbElection2023

We did not want to share this because of the great shame it would bring to our community.

But everyone who #abvotes Monday should know the truth @ElectionsAB This propoganda will bring ...
A fake tweet claiming to be from @albertaNDP leader @RachelNotley was shared on several Alberta WeChat groups.

It positions Rachel as allowing kids access to gender affirming surgeries without parental consent.

This is false.
@ElectionsAB #AbElection2023 #abvotes A fake Rachel Notley tweet ...
The fake tweet has many mistakes obvious to native English speakers

proud as “pround”

“christian fascism”

Our province as “alberta”

“Enough is Enough”

“affirm their childs”

Learning a new language is hard so I don’t take issue with the text
@ElectionsAB #AbElection2023
Read 11 tweets
The dangers of reporting too quickly late at night after a long campaign. Result - errors in what I reported and tweeted last night about vote count. #ableg #abpoli #cdnpoli #abvotes #yyc #yeg
So I’ve revised the column online - again.…
First, the scanners at advance polls DO count votes. They are not connected to the internet. Each local returning officer communicates the riding-by-riding votes from each machine to Elections Alberta. #ableg #abpoli #cdnpoli #abvotes #yyc #yeg
Read 6 tweets
Thinking of voting UCP “because of the economy”? Think again! New study shows UCP’s “trickle down” policies have hurt, not helped the Alberta economy. Wage growth, economic growth, investment all dismal under UCP. #abvotes #FireTheUCP #abpoli #abvote… Image
Under the UCP, Alberta had the lowest wage growth in Canada. Image
Under the UCP, wages fell farther behind inflation than any other province. Image
Read 7 tweets
THREAD: Guess it's advanced voting day 1. Let me tell you when I was a Wildrose campaign worker. Youth campaign coordinator to be more precise. I was on Bruce McAllister's team. I looked up to him as a smart, funny Global News anchor every morning growing up. #ableg #abelxn Image
Got a few friends on board who wanted to increase youth voter turnout and instill real change in gov. We beat Ted Morton (who's now simping for Smith). I was elated. My first (real) campaign success. But only two years later, our success was in vain.. #abelxn #abpoli #abvotes
My colleagues and I felt so betrayed. Our hard work against the PC dynasty, momentum for the WR, all but vanished during that press conference. McAllister and Smith turned their backs on the party, their constituents, and all the volunteers like me who believed in them. #abelxn…
Read 7 tweets
🧵 Here is a series of lies Smith told during the debate.

Before the whatabout people come around Notley told 4 lies I could ID, Smith told 32. Frankly a list of true statements made by Smith would be easier to catalog.

There were many more moments of dishonest spin….(1/x)
Danielle Smith lie #1
“Rachel Notley Almost Bankrupt Alberta”

Typically, one goes bankrupt when their assets exceed their liabilities. Per the GoA 2019 Annual statement when Notley left office Alberta’s net assets were $23.2B. We had a credit rating of AA1. Alberta was nowhere……
Danielle Smith Lie #2
Inflation was created by the Liberal/NDP Coalition

The post pandemic inflation is a global phenomenon attributed to energy and food prices, Canada has performed comparatively well. Also the Liberal/NDP supply agreement was launched in April ‘22,…… Image
Read 32 tweets
I wanted to see how AI saw each party in the 2023 Alberta election.

So, I asked Midjourney to generate an image based on some of the parties in the election. I used no prompts beyond "Alberta [Party Name] MLA"

#abpoli #abvotes #abelection

1. United Conservative Party MLA Image
2. Alberta New Democratic Party MLA Image
3. Alberta Party MLA Image
Read 7 tweets
Oil again below $70/bbl. Alberta needs ~$75 to balance and was banking on $80 for the budget.

Hopefully we'll see some serious ideas from both parties around how to ease our dependence on this volatile revenue source. #abvotes Image
Tip: if a candidate or leader uses the words "economic diversification" in any statement about our reliance on resource revenues, that's a clue that they have no idea what's going on.
* correction: budget 2023 was based on 79 for the 2023/24 year, not 80
Read 3 tweets
A tale of two Premiers. Notley and Smith both sat down for separate chats with Calgary Mayor Gondek in front of crowd of 2,000 Calgary business people. In a nutshell: Notley shone; Smith flopped. I almost felt sorry for Smith. Almost. #AbLeg #abvotes #abpoli ImageImage
I want to stress that this was a business audience. They didn’t give either politician a standing ovation, but the reception for Smith was positively chilly. And no wonder. When asked about downtown revitalization, Smith talked about the ring road and federal bail conditions.
When asked about health care, Smith said she’s a defender of public health care and that she’s “absolutely on the same page as the federal government.” (Yes, she read said that … to derisive snorts from the audience).
Read 5 tweets

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