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2023 #abvotes Prediction:

Some explanations first. There are 22 ridings “in-play”. 15 in Calgary and 7 elsewhere.

For safe ridings, UCP leads 37-28.
#ableg #abpoli Image
With decent confidence, I feel NDP will take Slave Lake, Banff-Kan, Sherwood Park, Strathcona-SP, Lethbridge East, Morinville-StA and 6 more in Calgary. UCP takes FtSk-Veg and 3 more in Calgary.

This brings us down to a virtual tie and 6 tight Cgy seats up for grabs.
#abvote Image
To call the next 6, I assumed the UCP are up by 3 in Calgary. I looked at 2019 results plus Abacus data on vote retention from 2019.

Here’s the thing. All of these ridings had strong Alberta Party support in 2019. With ABP vote collapsing, I see all 6 being close, but going NDP
Read 5 tweets
Thinking of voting UCP “because of the economy”? Think again! New study shows UCP’s “trickle down” policies have hurt, not helped the Alberta economy. Wage growth, economic growth, investment all dismal under UCP. #abvotes #FireTheUCP #abpoli #abvote action.afl.org/press-release-… Image
Under the UCP, Alberta had the lowest wage growth in Canada. Image
Under the UCP, wages fell farther behind inflation than any other province. Image
Read 7 tweets
🧵I may be just a second grade teacher, but I’m also an Albertan who has thoughts and experiences with public education. Check them out here: bit.ly/3q4Y9zJ #abed #ableg #abvote #firetheucp #abetterfuture Image
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Read 5 tweets
Over four years in government, the UCP have failed to lower surgery wait times and they’ve actually increased, according to data available from the Government of Alberta. 🧵

#ableg #abhealth #abvote #abelxn23 #cdnhealth
According to the Government’s own data:

More than 70,000 Albertans were waiting for surgeries in May 2019. That number has increased to 74,000 as of February 2023.
According to the Government’s own data:

From April 2019 to January 2023, median wait times have increased for hip replacements from 18.7 to 26.3 weeks and knee replacements have increased from 20.6 weeks to 36.9 weeks.
Read 11 tweets
With #ResignKenney continuing to trend, I want to talk a bit about what realistic options Albertans have for holding this govt accountable.

Let's be clear about one thing - there is no way Kenney will choose to resign. There are, however, other ways to take down a leader [1/8]
that has lost the moral authority to govern.

The typical process is to simply vote their party out in the next election. Unfortunately, the next #abvote is not until spring 2023, so w/ their legislative majority, we are likely stuck with the UCP for another 2 full years [2/8]
BUT WAIT!

That doesn't mean it isn't possible to force an election sooner or remove Kenney as Premier! Let's talk about how this could work.

There are 2 feasible scenarios, both of which involve UCP MLA's breaking ranks with their party.

To force an early election, we [3/8]
Read 10 tweets
Congratulations Alberta on another democratic process. Moving forward into the next 4 years will likely be an interesting time. We welcome back our MLA @SPhillipsAB and look forward to another 4 years working with you! #ABVOTE
We know that party politics create interesting discourse. Whether you are a fan of tonight's results or not, the citizenry still has a job to do: hold our elected officials accountable to their promises.
We hope our new government will continue the good works of environmental programs and sustainability incentives started under previous governments. We hope that sound economic policies will lead AB to a prosperous future.
Read 4 tweets
Today all Albertans will have an opportunity to decide who they would like to serve them for the next four years.

This decision should not be taken lightly. The people we elect to serve us will send a clear message to others what our collective priorities are. #abvote #abpoli
For many, the primary issue will be the economy. I can’t fault someone for prioritizing that. There are some communities that have been hit harder than others and addressing that concern may be the most important and immediate issue for them.
I completely understand why someone would focus on the economy because for most of my life, I have put the economy above any other issue.
Read 12 tweets
1/14 This is the last post I’ll write on the Alberta election before we know the outcome. There will of course be a lot to say after the results come in tomorrow, and we can analyze exit polls and voting demographics in the days and weeks that follow. #ABvote #ABPoli
2/14 I’ll start by saying that I respect Stephen Mandel and David Khan as party leaders. I have friends working and volunteering on the @AlbertaParty, Green Party, and @ABLiberal campaigns, and I know they care as much about this province as I do.
3/14 Still, I voted without hesitation in advance polls for @RachelNotley and @albertaNDP.
Read 14 tweets
When we intentionally vote for ppl we know are corrupt, what do we say to politicians about what’s allowable?

When we then complain about the inevitable corruption, where will our firm footing be? We are the one who lifted them to office.

Vote how you want, of course.

#abvote
And of course, if you think I’m targeting a particular party, note that I haven’t.

Your interpretation may tell you all you need to know about your #abvote choices.

I’m happy to support both compassion & a growing economy. It can be both. It needs to be for our communities.
A quick tip from our fine @EndPovertyYEG folks — who have numbers:

It is far cheaper to deal with social issues than to NOT deal with them.

Want a strong economy? Give strength to your neighbour.

These are the sensible values that built our province.

#abvote
Read 6 tweets
I’m calling BS on Jason Kenney. This chart shows the REAL cause of our economic pain: the US fracking boom, which has transformed global oil markets. Anyone who ignores this reality is either a grifter or an idiot. (THREAD) #ableg #abpoli #abvote
The explosion in US production — exacerbated by the Saudi’s attempt to drive US shale producers out of business by opening their taps — upset the global supply-demand balance, causing a collapse in prices. Global oil prices have remained lower ever since. #ableg #abpoli
People who say that the Alberta recession is all Notley’s fault ignore the fact that low oil prices ALWAYS lead to lower investment. This is essentially an iron law. This chart shows the correlation between price and investment GLOBALLY since 1980. #ableg #abpoli #abvote
Read 15 tweets
OK Alberta, come with me for an explainer on how Overtime works in Alberta... and how @jkenney @Alberta_UCP is lying to you when they say their overtime changes won't cost you and your family.

This is important to every single hardworking Albertan. 1/?
#ableg #abvote
Overtime rules in Alberta are pretty basic, for the most part. Overtime is all hours worked in excess of eight hours a day, or 44 hours a week, whichever is greater. (Toolkit, Page 21) #ableg #abvote
alberta.ca/assets/documen…
There are some jobs in some industries where exceptions make sense, either for safety or for our economy. Ambulance attendants for example. (Toolkit, Page 27) alberta.ca/assets/documen… #ableg #abvote
Read 24 tweets
All right, so this is gunna be a bit of a long thread. Because at this point, I'm really kind of pissed off. So bear with me.

Would a few people voting UCP maybe like to look again in that mirror that Premier Prentice offered us in 2015? No. Really. #ableg #abvote
You know what actually bugs me about this UCP worship going on? Its not that I have a team and that team could lose. That's a simplistic assessment of my opinion. Disavow yourself of that idea and keep reading, because I'll break it down. #ableg #abvote
I was a conservative after I left home. I went against a fairly pro NDP family that even had ties to the CCF. My great great grandfather was the CCF MP for Maple Creek from 1945-1949. We bled green/gold and then orange after 1961. #ableg #abvote
Read 14 tweets
1) Where do people get the idea that Jason Kenney and the UCP are the strongest ballot choice in terms of Alberta’s economic future? A thread. #abpoli #vote2019
2) World price of oil has swung up / down from US$28 to more than $110/barrel in recent yrs, yet Kenney pins oil-producing AB economic struggles squarely on Notley. That’s an easy claim to make, & convenient that he need not prove how he or his Party would have done any better.
3) @jkenney has promised to kill the carbon tax, reduce corporate taxes, and still somehow balance the budget by saving money through efficiencies. And printing money, I suppose. #abvote #abpoli
Read 15 tweets
Funny story: this is the first time I will be voting. Why? I took the idea of journalistic integrity as a reporter & news director seriously. Even though it's a secret ballot, I felt it was important to not let my personal beliefs affect my coverage. #ABvote #ABleg
Now as the host of @CalgaryToday, I get paid to have an opinion. My personal integrity is my word. I have always said I will never openly endorse a party or politician as its not my job to tell you how to vote. That said, I will tell you what I stand for. #ABvote #ABleg
I stand for fiscal responsibility by government. We should make sure spending is done smartly & with reason. However, I don't believe in cuts just for the sake of cuts. I believe in a strong health care & education systems. I believe in visions for the future. #ABvote #ABleg
Read 4 tweets
THREAD (1/10) During last night’s debate, NDP leader Rachel Notley again denied any responsibility for the failure of Enbridge’s Northern Gateway, and claimed the Federal Court of Appeal is why the pipeline didn’t go ahead.

This is all false. Here are the facts #ableg #abvote
(2/10) Rachel Notley opposed the Northern Gateway pipeline. She specifically told the Calgary Herald’s editorial board in April 2015 that she wouldn’t fight for it, saying "I don't think there's any point to it." This was well before the FCA decision: calgaryherald.com/news/politics/…
(3/10) Justin Trudeau had already committed to scrapping the project. In 2014, on the day the former federal Conservative government approved the project, he announced that he’d stop the 525,000 barrel per day pipeline:
Read 10 tweets
THREAD
After looking at the platforms, additional information and the leaders debate this is what I am let with. ALL parties will be running a deficit. Oil revenue paid for a lot of things which allowed us to have low taxes 1/ 18
#abvote #abpoli #shpk #yeg #yyc #strathco
Oil prices crash, we have been through this often. And every time it happens it is the same. Jobs are lost, people's lives go off the rails and the Alberta economy crashes. This time is no different than the last time or the time before. We have some hard choices to make 2/18
Just looking at the top 2 parties. At the end of the next 4 year term #UCP will have us at 86 bill in debt and #abndp will have us at 95 bill in debt. This is a difference of 9 bill over a 4 year term or 2.25 bill per year. So what does each plan get us? 3/18
Read 18 tweets
Hi again, Duncan.

As I just told you on the phone, I’m grateful that you picked up & took my call but I was pretty surprised when you hung up on me.

As I said, I would like to ask you to please post the financial statements for @ProgressAlberta at your website.

@duncankinney
Duncan,

As I said on the phone, I notice that @ProgressAlberta has been funded via Tides as part of The Tar Sands Campaign to LAND-LOCK Canadian oil & keep it out of overseas markets.

2016: US$38,599
2017: US$24,282

Tax records attached.

My questions are ...
.... Duncan,

1) Has @ProgressAlberta received $ from:
- New Venture Fund
- Tides Canada Initiatives
- Renew Canada

2) Would you pls post financial statements for @ProgressAlberta on-line?

Given that you are campaigning hard, these are fair questions, no?
@duncankinney #abvote
Read 4 tweets
This is an interesting poll, and like all the other more-recent polls, it has some wrinkles that deserve to be unpacked.
#ableg #abvote #abpoli
The published document includes the questionnaire, the cross-tabs, etc, which is super-awesome because it helps shed some light on why different polls might yield different results. Often these details are hidden behind a paywall.
#ableg #abvote #abpoli
I believe this is a commissioned poll (for the Global Petroleum Show?) as well, like the recent EKOS poll (which was commissioned for Unifor). These tend to get excluded from poll-aggregators for a few good reasons:
#ableg #abvote #abpoli
Read 16 tweets
Kenney is in Turner Vallery today to speak on energy sector job creation. As is the trend with #abvote campaign events from all parties (I believe Notley was 40 min late the other day? Quite the dillydallying), he is late. And no, I will never tire of pointing this out. #ableg
He was less than 10 minutes late this time! Colour me impressed. At this rate he'll for sure be on time by Election Day. #ableg #abvote
OK! Kenney says the US is now a net oil exporter. He says global consumption of oil has increased by 10% over the last decade, but b/c of the Trudeau-Notley alliance (drink) we are living through an oil jobs crisis #ableg #abvote
Read 31 tweets
Hello #abvote pals! This afternoon, ex-@Alberta_UCP leadership candidate Jeff Callaway (& others) will ask a judge to halt the election commissioner’s investigation into his campaign. I’ll tweet from court, follow along here. Background: thestar.com/calgary/2019/0… #ableg #abpoli
The hearing is set for 2 p.m. If you’re wondering what the heck I’m talking about, you can get caught up with the latest on this here: thestar.com/edmonton/2019/… #abvote #abpoli #ableg
Of note: this hearing is about the election commissioner’s investigation. We know the RCMP are also looking into aspects of Callaway’s campaign, but as far as I know, we’re not here to talk about that. Just election commissioner.
Read 84 tweets
1/Thread: The Economic Forecast no one’s talking about in #Alberta #ABVote #ableg
2/ Every year, the Canadian Energy Research Institute publishes its annual Oil Sands Supply Cost study, often with meagre fanfare and media coverage. You can find their studies here:

ceri.ca/studies
3/ These #oilsands supply cost reports always included a forecast of bitumen royalty revenues, but in 2017 this specific chart was dropped from the annual report, probably because of market conditions. #ableg #abvote
Read 18 tweets
Do you like having money? Then you definitely want to vote for *anyone* other than Jason Kenney’s UCP. Kenney’s just-released platform confirms that he intends to take a boatload of money out of *your* wallet and give to his friends:
#ableg #abvote #abpoli
•He wants to end OT time-and-a-half banking, taking money you worked hard to earn and handing it to your boss.
•He wants to end the carbon tax & rebates, which most Albertans make money on, taking money out of your hands & giving it to the richest in AB.
#ableg #abvote #abpoli
•He wants to freeze education & health spending, but with a growing population that means fewer $/person. Businesses get a tax cut paid for by you buying more school supplies, fundraising & donating more, waiting longer for diagnostics or a surgery, & more
#ableg #abvote #abpoli
Read 9 tweets
So, it looks like it’s not going to be a coronation, after all! A large poll conducted by EKOS for Unifor suggests that the wheels are starting to fall off Kenney’s wagon. #ableg #abpoli #abvote #yyc #yeg
The NDP has strengthened its lead in Edmonton and closed the gap in Calgary.
Also, a clear majority of Albertans now pick Notley as the “best Premier” over Kenney.
Read 6 tweets
Now I’m over at the Alberta Teachers Association where they’ll be addressing some issues in the @Alberta_UCP education platform. #ableg #abvote
Greg Jeffery will be addressing the media. He’s president of the ATA. They learned this morning that @jkenney brought up removing principals from the ATA and they’ll be addressing that. #ableg #abvote
Jeffery says the ATA has a long history of non partisanship. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t political. #ableg #abvote
Read 25 tweets

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