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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 30 • 4 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Russia deployed more S-400 air defense systems (probably at least a battery) to #Belarus on May 28. These systems will likely enter service with the Belarusian military but under #Russian operational control. ⬇️ isw.pub/UkrWar052923
2/ The Belarusian Ministry of Defense released a video on May 28 showing a train with S-400 systems deploying to an unspecified area in #Belarus. These systems will likely enter service with the Belarusian military but under #Russian operational control.
3/ #Russia’s and #Belarus’ Joint Regional Air Defense System (established in 2009 and operational in 2016) effectively subordinates Belarus’ air defense assets to the Russian Western Military District.
4/ Belarusian officials confirmed that Russian-provided S-400 in #Belarus became operational and deployed on combat duty on December 25, 2022. isw.pub/UkrWar052923

(ISW forecasted in 2020 that #Russia would deploy S-400s to #Belarus: understandingwar.org/backgrounder/b…)

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 31
Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Updates:

1/ Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs, which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in #Russia.

isw.pub/UkrWar053023
2/ The Russian MoD is reportedly continuing to recruit prisoners from regional penitentiaries. An independent RU outlet reported that Russian Penitentiary Service employees opened recruitment points in prisons and are recruiting prisoners who committed less serious crimes.
3/ The #WagnerGroup continues to weaponize social media to facilitate global recruitment campaigns. @POLITICOEurope, citing UK disinformation research group Logically, reported that #Wagner is using Twitter and Facebook to recruit personnel.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 31
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in southern #Ukraine on May 30.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck objects across the southern axis. isw.pub/UkrWar053023 ImageImage
2/ #Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on May 30 that Ukrainian forces are striking roads and bridges in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and struck the road connecting Russian-occupied Vasylivka and Dniprorudne. Image
3/ Rogov also reported that Ukrainian forces struck Mykhailivka (about 45km north of #Melitopol) on May 30. Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian forces struck Mykhailivka on May 29 and 30.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 30
Eastern #Kharkiv/Western #Luhansk axis:

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of #Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 29. isw.pub/UkrWar052923 ImageImageImage
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Masyutivka (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and did not conduct offensive operations in the Kreminna area. ImageImage
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced from Masyutivka, although ISW has still not seen visual confirmation of these advances nor confirmation that Russian forces control Masyutivka. Image
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 29
#WagnerGroup financier #Prigozhin claimed that the Russian relief in-place operation in #Bakhmut may continue past his initial June 1 deadline & last until June 5. The tempo of Russian operations around Bakhmut remains notably low. isw.pub/UkrWar052823

Other toplines: 🧵⬇️ Image
2/ #Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s authority and regime. Prigozhin may be attacking Putin for failing to give Prigozhin some promised reward for seizing #Bakhmut.
3/ The #WagnerGroup held a reportedly illegal pro-#Wagner rally in #Yekaterinburg, #Russia on May 28 despite the reported banning of the rally by Yekaterinburg authorities.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 29
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin appears to have again indirectly undermined #Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s authority and regime. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar052823
Prigozhin responded to a journalist’s question about 🇷🇺 state media banning any discussions re: Wagner forces ... then gave advice to an unnamed official: “If you are starting a war, please have character, will, & steel balls—& only then you will be able to achieve something.” 2/
#Prigozhin implied that accomplishing real achievements would let the official avoid lying about the construction of new buildings, metro stations, and bridges in an effort to look good. 3/
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 28
Mobilization & Force Generation Updates:

The Russian Ministry of Justice registered the civil society group “Council of Mothers of Wives” as a foreign agent on May 26, likely to curb resistance to #Russia's ongoing and future force generation efforts. isw.pub/UkrWar052723
2/ The “Council of Mothers and Wives” routinely advocated for their relatives serving in the Russian military by reaching out to local officials following the start of partial mobilization in late September 2022.
3/ #Putin previously tried to dull the informational impact of the group’s criticism of mobilization in late November 2022 by attending a meeting with hand-picked women in the Russian political sphere falsely presented as mothers of mobilized personnel. isw.pub/UkrWar112522
Read 4 tweets

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