Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 30 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. Obvious lies cause even the great KGB liar to choke up. IMO other than for projection and deflection of Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians, I'm at 90% certain it's a false flag is to justify the movement of Russian air defenses to Moscow. Why? Because it's undefended.
2. If you view the Russian democratic partisans' attacks on #Belhorod as reconnaissance-in-force, and then overlay the actual deployment of Russian forces based around Moscow, it would not be hard to imagine that Putin fears Moscow could be the target of an offensive.
3. First, the sheer size of the Russian force deployment to Ukraine is staggering. It has be the bulk of the entire Russian ground force. They've burned up most of their serviceable armor and the pilots needed for air support are being killed in deadly Storm Shadow strikes. Image
4. But looking at the area from northeast Ukraine Moscow there are just a two infantry units in #Kursk. None in #Bryansk or in #Voronezh. Mostly just rear echelon units. No infantry, no tanks and no artillery. Ukraine could roll on Kursk and/or Bryansk and then Image
5. threaten to make a dash for #Moscow. That would force #Russia to destroy its own road infrastructure and redeploy air force away from Ukraine along with its best troops. Think of Bobby Lee's 1863 summer road-trip to Pennsylvania.
6. The trick is knowing when to scoot back home and avoid the crowded tourist traps in places like Gettysburg. In any event, this is not likely to happen, but that doesn't mean that Putin doesn't fear it. And in war that's often enough to force an enemy to make bad decisions.
7. So Putin announces he's moving air defenses to Moscow. I'm guessing they're going to be delivered by infantry units that might have been on the line when business-end of the the Ukrainian offensive kicks off. And Moscow will hunker down. A capital under a siege of the mind.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Jun 1
1. I've been listening to @MSNBC and the parade of hosts and guest losing it over the fact that the document that is being shown in the grand jury is an invasion scenario for #Iran. Notably the reporting is that it was classified as 'Secret.' It's critical to understand
2. where this information came from, how the persons disclosing it obtained the information and why it's more than likely that this is a "Goldilocks" document needed to indict #45 for crimes related to his handling of national defense information including ,but not
3. limited to, classified material. If the guests, hosts or the audience don't know what the term CIPA means, it's the procedural law related to handling classified government information in court proceedings. I concede I didn't know much about it until #45 and his parade of
Read 11 tweets
Jun 1
1. Ukraine continues preparing for the offensive by attacking Russian oil facilities in #Krasnodar and military facilities in southern occupied areas.
For several days #Ukraine has attacked #Russianoilfacilities inflicting serious damage on one of Russia's largest refineries. Image
2. Ten strikes were conducted in recent days with about half of them successful and Ukraine has hit and reportedly damaged five facilities in the #Krasnodar region.

Ukraine released results of an earlier reported #StormShadow strike on #Yukivka between #Berdyansk & #Mariupol. Image
3. The strike was on Russian forces housed in a resort facility killing 100 Russian military personnel and wounding 40. Past reporting claimed targets of earlier strikes were high-value like pilots, SOF and Marines. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
May 31
1. Not the first time we have confirmed the presence of HIMARS in Syria for US force protection. With Turkey's Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliated allies and the Iranians it should come as no surprise. Here are some of my earlier reports on HIMARS in Syria.
2. In 2016 after we deployed forces to the area around LaFarge and Ain Issa. Image
3. 2017 during the battle for Raqqa. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 27
1. I don't know what happened to the #IvanKhurs but I know a couple of things. First, it was attacked by at least three drone ships in an area off the entrance to the #Bosporus. Second, early reports claimed to show it with the name on the side. Third, I knew that was likely Image
2. false because I happened to take a photo of the ship in October and the name had been painted over. So because I witnessed the Russian lies over the Slava Battle Cruiser Moskva, I tend to not believe Russian reporting when it is about one of their ships that was attacked. Image
3. I concluded that there is a better than 50% possibility that #IvanKurs was damaged or sunk and if damaged it is being towed by the ##Commander back to #Sevastopol. Before the AIS reporting was stopped I made the Commander as making less than 1 knot. Based on a speed of 1 knot
Read 5 tweets
May 25
1. Russia continues to react to the Belgorod incursion along with Ukrainian shaping operations by rushing to reinforce both the area on the border near Belgorod and in Bakhmut due to Wagner forces abrupt decision to withdraw after Prigozhin warned the flanks were collapsing.
2. The #FreedomOfRussiaLegion and #RussianVolunteersCorps held a presser where they claimed all strategic goals were accomplished. They stated they have proven a large force from Ukraine could take Belgorod quickly thus forcing the Russian command to redeploy forces from the Image
3. support in areas where the Ukrainian offensive could be soon expected. Redeployment puts Russian forces in the open and more at risk. DPR forces in the city of #Khartsyzk were being deployed to Bakhmut to replace Wagner and Ukraine attacked with them with HIMARS. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 24
1. To defeat the #RussianInvasion IMO #Ukraine needs to destroy the rail and road connections from Western Russia to Eastern Ukraine. They also need to interrupt the Russian ability to arm especially artillery ammunition and tanks. The maps tell me Ukraine may be doing it.
2. I have my Google Earth Pro updated with NASA Firms fires data on a constant feed. I spotted these today. The ones near #Voronezh #Rossosh and #StaryOskol caught my eye. They are all near rail lines and the ones near Stary Oskol are in what appears to be a steel production Image
3. facility that would be a good candidate for production of the steel blanks that are needed to fabricate artillery ammunition. Here is Stary Oskol. It appears to be a factory near a mining facility. Old-timey Stalinist industry practice of the factory near the mine. Image
Read 7 tweets

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