Thread by @Mathieu_Droin

“We have lost opportunities to listen to you”
Interesting effort by @EmmanuelMacron to rally Central and Eastern Europe audience around his vision for the future of Europe, in a landmark speech @GLOBSEC in Bratislava.
Some highlights 🧵 1/18

The Pdt started by highlighting European unity, pushing back the alleged division between “Western/old” and “Eastern/new” Europe, which would “perpetuate the artificial boundary created by the USSR.” With a reference to Kundera, he said that Europe should not be “kidnapped twice”

On 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦, he recognized some “inconsistencies in our approach”, which failed to deter 🇷🇺 repeated aggressions, hinting at the fact that #NATO guarantees to 🇺🇦 were “too much or too little”, enraging 🇷🇺 by wielding 🇺🇦 membership, while offering weak security guarantees to 🇺🇦.

On the war, he stressed that there is “no room in Europe for imperial fantasies” and described #Russia’s aggression as a “geopolitical failure”, with Finland 🇫🇮 and hopefully Sweden 🇸🇪 joining NATO, “heightened distrust” in 🇷🇺’s neighborhood and “international delegitimization.”

He then praised the strength and unity of the Transatlantic response. He reckoned that Article 5 “played its full part” and hailed the United States instrumental role. Coming back on his 2019 comment on NATO’s “brain death”, he pointed out that “Putin jolted it awake”. 5/18

Regarding the 🇪🇺, he commended the celerity and strength of the response to the war, with 67 Bn euros of assistance, including 14 Bn for military support, but highlighted that this transformation of Europe “is valid only if sustained in the long run”.
He clarified his vision:

1⃣Support 🇺🇦 by all means for an efficient counteroffensive that allows for a “chosen peace”
2⃣Be clear on what “peace” means: not a “frozen conflict” that would “endorse the seizure of territory”
3⃣Peace should therefore be chosen by 🇺🇦, with credible guarantees 7/18

On what the tangible security guarantees to Ukraine could be: “something between security provided to 🇮🇱 and full-fledged membership”. “No way to have a sort of Budapest [memorandum]”. He recognized that having a consensus at the next NATO summit in Vilnius will be difficult.

Beyond Ukraine, the French President stressed the need to “secure the broader European environment”, not only Europe’s Eastern flank but also the Southern flank, and to invest to face “new forms of conflictuality” such as in the cyber, space or the maritime domains. 9/18

The Pdt also highlighted the need to “listen to the #GlobalSouth”, where many countries feel that the war in 🇺🇦 is “not their war”. Failing to do so would pave the way to an “alternative international order” in which these countries would become “objective allies” of Russia.10/18

He then elaborated his vision for Europe. He started with the Transatlantic bond, voicing his gratitude for the 🇺🇸 Biden administration, yet raising this question: “Will this administration be the same forever?”. He added “The future of Europe should not rely on 🇺🇸 voters.” 11/18

He called on Europeans to take their “legitimate share of the burden” and dismissed the "fantasies" that France seeks to “replace NATO” or to build a “Franco-German condominium”. He insisted instead on building a "powerful European defense" with 🇸🇰, 🇵🇱 and others. 12/18

The French President also invited Europeans to “increasingly build, buy and innovate European”, with a message to countries increasing their defense spending but buying outside of Europe: “you are creating your problems of tomorrow”. 13/18

He also renewed some recurring calls to get out of the status of “strategic minority” when it comes to arms control agreements that concern European soil, without Europeans at the negotiating table. He renewed the invitation to the Paris’ June conference on Europe’s air defense.

He finally clarified his vision for the “broader Europe”, starting with the European Political Community #EPC, on the eve of the Summit in 🇲🇩, insisting that it is “neither a competitor to NATO, nor a substitute to EU enlargement”. He presented it as a “geopolitical laboratory”.

Concluding on enlargement, he called 🇪🇺 to avoid 2 mistakes: on the one hand the status quo, on the other to accelerate without making sure the EU is able to absorb the newcomers. On this issue, @csiserep just released some thoughts csis.org/analysis/europ…

In a recent piece for @POLITICOEurope, @JTownsend and I called for “Strategic Reconciliation” among Europeans. This speech was certainly a step in the right direction. Future (and Twitter) will tell us if it succeeded in convincing the targeted audience.
politico.eu/article/the-ne…

The next important step to build European commonalities will be tomorrow in Chisinau for the 2nd Summit of the European Political Community. For some background and what to expect, here is a piece that we have put together with @IlkeToygur for @CSIS
csis.org/analysis/chisi…

Full speech:
- In French:
- In English: