Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Prigozhin likely escalated his feud w/ the Russian MoD to draw criticism back to the Russian military leadership, downplay his ongoing conflict w/ Chechen officials, & retain his initiative in the Russian info space following the capture of #Bakhmut. 🧵⬇️ isw.pub/UkrWar060323

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1665142879331799042

2/ #Prigozhin alleged on June 2 that representatives of the MoD placed anti-tank mines and other explosive devices along routes that #Wagner forces were using to withdraw from #Bakhmut.

3/ #Prigozhin asserted that these charges were placed in rear areas with no Ukrainian activity and that the MoD likely meant for #Wagner forces to detonate the explosives in order to give Wagner a “public flogging.”

4/ #Prigozhin also further responded to a concerted attack that Chechen commanders launched against him on June 1 and stated on June 3 that he and #Kadyrov settled the conflict.

5/ #Prigozhin claimed that he called Kadyrov on June 1 and the two agreed to let the “whole story” about the conflict dissipate.

6/ He suggested that a group in the Kremlin may have started the conflict between his forces and #Kadyrov's and insinuated that the Kremlin often plays ”dangerous games” that could destabilize interethnic relations within Russia. Kadyrov has yet to publicly address the conflict.

7/ #Prigozhin has not yet responded to #Kadyrov or the Chechen commanders who started the attack in an antagonistic manner typical of his usual approach to responding to critiques.

8/ The claimed private phone call between #Prigozhin & Kadyrov would suggest that Prigozhin is concerned that this typical public response might further antagonize Kadyrov & Chechen commanders and that he is concerned about having another prominent figure aligned against him.

9/ #Prigozhin’s flamboyant allegations are also likely an attempt to retain his heightened initiative within the Russian information space following the capture of Bakhmut.

10/ #Prigozhin has used his heightened profile following the capture of #Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites and bolster his attempt to solidify himself as the central figure of the Russian ultranationalist community.

11/ #Prigozhin has routinely used Wagner’s claimed responsibility for tactical gains to legitimize his pursuit of influence and his criticism of others, and he is likely also concerned that he may soon lose his ability to dominate discussions as his forces withdraw to rear areas.

12/ #Prigozhin’s accusation against the MoD aims to remove any constraints resulting from his conflict with #Kadyrov, shift the conversation back to criticizing his opponents in the MoD, and allow Prigozhin to dictate how he & #Wagner are portrayed. isw.pub/UkrWar060323