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Jun 5 4 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in #Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids into #Russia. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ The contradictory reporting from official Russian sources about the situation in #Belgorod Oblast and Gladkov’s apparent personal decision to respond to the RDK and LSR suggests that the MoD and Gladkov are not coordinating their responses to the raids.
3/ ISW has previously reported that Russian officials have disproportionately responded to the limited raids into #Russia to assuage growing Russian anxiety about the war in #Ukraine while supporting ongoing info operations that aim to present the war as existential to Russia.
4/ #Russian responses have primarily centered on informational effects, and there is no indication that the Russian leadership has set a wider policy for preventing further limited raids into Russian border oblasts. isw.pub/UkrWar060423

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Jun 6
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin is continuing efforts to exacerbate the divide between the #WagnerGroup and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). 🧵⬇️
isw.pub/UkrWar060523
2/ #Prigozhin’s press service published a video on June 4 showing a #Wagner fighter interrogating a Russian soldier who identified himself as Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps).
3/ Venevitin admitted on camera that he ordered his unit to fire on a #Wagner vehicle while intoxicated due to his own “personal animosity” towards Wagner and appeared to have sustained facial injuries during the time of his capture by Wagner.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 6
Ukrainian forces made limited advances north and southwest of #Bakhmut on June 5.

#Prigozhin claimed that UKR forces captured part of Berkhivka, and a UKR military official claimed UKR forces advanced 200-1600m in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. isw.pub/UkrWar060523 ImageImage
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults in the direction of #Soledar (12km NE of #Bakhmut), likely referring to the wider area north and northeast of Bakhmut.
3/ One milblogger claimed that Russian forces fought Ukrainian forces near Rozdolivka (19km NE of #Bakhmut). Another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also attacked Russian positions in an unspecified location in the Siversk (31km northeast of Bakhmut) area.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 5
ISW is committed to helping policymakers and the public understand what is occurring in #Ukraine without reporting details that would in any way compromise Ukraine’s ability to liberate its occupied lands.

Follow-up 🧵on ISW policy and what to expect from us ⬇️
2/ We will remain conservative in mapping and assessing Ukrainian advances given that control of terrain may rapidly change during mechanized operations.
3/ ISW will not compromise Ukrainian operational security or report on anything the Russians don’t already know based on our extensive and detailed study of Russian publicly available sources.
Read 6 tweets
Jun 5
Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian #counteroffensive. ISW has observed increased combat activity in different sectors of the frontline and assesses that Ukrainian forces are making territorial gains despite Russian claims to the contrary.🧵⬇️
2/ The signals include Russian MoD claims that Ukrainian forces launched an unsuccessful “large-scale offensive” on June 4 & Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s June 5 statement that Ukrainian forces are “transferring to offensive actions” in some unspecified areas.
3/ Russian officials have historically immediately claimed that Ukrainian counter-offensives failed even when the counter-offensives ultimately succeed.
Read 7 tweets
Jun 5
Southern #Ukraine:

Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western #Donetsk Oblast and eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4. isw.pub/UkrWar060423 ImageImage
2/ Ukrainian forces continued to target frontline and rear areas in southern #Ukraine. Russian sources claimed that Russian air defenses intercepted Ukrainian missiles targeting #Berdyansk and #Melitopol on June 3. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
3/ Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces struck additional areas in #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4: near #Melitopol, northeast of Melitopol near Chernihivka, and near the frontline near Verbove and Polohy. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
Read 4 tweets
Jun 5
#Kharkiv-#Luhansk Axis

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are attempting to regain the initiative on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian & Russian forces both claimed to have made limited territorial gains on the Kupyansk-Svatove line on June 4. ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced 400 meters in an unspecified area in the Svatove direction and liberated a significant area of the Ivanivskyi forest. isw.pub/UkrWar060423 Image
3/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces crossed the #Oskil River and seized Novomlynsk (21km NE of #Kupyansk) but noted the absence of photo or video evidence for this claimed advance. isw.pub/UkrWar060423 Image
Read 5 tweets

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