The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in #Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids into #Russia. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ The contradictory reporting from official Russian sources about the situation in #Belgorod Oblast and Gladkov’s apparent personal decision to respond to the RDK and LSR suggests that the MoD and Gladkov are not coordinating their responses to the raids.
3/ ISW has previously reported that Russian officials have disproportionately responded to the limited raids into #Russia to assuage growing Russian anxiety about the war in #Ukraine while supporting ongoing info operations that aim to present the war as existential to Russia.
4/ #Russian responses have primarily centered on informational effects, and there is no indication that the Russian leadership has set a wider policy for preventing further limited raids into Russian border oblasts. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
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2/ #Prigozhin’s press service published a video on June 4 showing a #Wagner fighter interrogating a Russian soldier who identified himself as Lieutenant Colonel Roman Venevitin of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps).
3/ Venevitin admitted on camera that he ordered his unit to fire on a #Wagner vehicle while intoxicated due to his own “personal animosity” towards Wagner and appeared to have sustained facial injuries during the time of his capture by Wagner.
Ukrainian forces made limited advances north and southwest of #Bakhmut on June 5.
#Prigozhin claimed that UKR forces captured part of Berkhivka, and a UKR military official claimed UKR forces advanced 200-1600m in the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. isw.pub/UkrWar060523
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults in the direction of #Soledar (12km NE of #Bakhmut), likely referring to the wider area north and northeast of Bakhmut.
3/ One milblogger claimed that Russian forces fought Ukrainian forces near Rozdolivka (19km NE of #Bakhmut). Another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also attacked Russian positions in an unspecified location in the Siversk (31km northeast of Bakhmut) area.
ISW is committed to helping policymakers and the public understand what is occurring in #Ukraine without reporting details that would in any way compromise Ukraine’s ability to liberate its occupied lands.
Follow-up 🧵on ISW policy and what to expect from us ⬇️
2/ We will remain conservative in mapping and assessing Ukrainian advances given that control of terrain may rapidly change during mechanized operations.
3/ ISW will not compromise Ukrainian operational security or report on anything the Russians don’t already know based on our extensive and detailed study of Russian publicly available sources.
Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian #counteroffensive. ISW has observed increased combat activity in different sectors of the frontline and assesses that Ukrainian forces are making territorial gains despite Russian claims to the contrary.🧵⬇️
2/ The signals include Russian MoD claims that Ukrainian forces launched an unsuccessful “large-scale offensive” on June 4 & Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s June 5 statement that Ukrainian forces are “transferring to offensive actions” in some unspecified areas.
3/ Russian officials have historically immediately claimed that Ukrainian counter-offensives failed even when the counter-offensives ultimately succeed.
Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western #Donetsk Oblast and eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ Ukrainian forces continued to target frontline and rear areas in southern #Ukraine. Russian sources claimed that Russian air defenses intercepted Ukrainian missiles targeting #Berdyansk and #Melitopol on June 3. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
3/ Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces struck additional areas in #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4: near #Melitopol, northeast of Melitopol near Chernihivka, and near the frontline near Verbove and Polohy. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced 400 meters in an unspecified area in the Svatove direction and liberated a significant area of the Ivanivskyi forest. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
3/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces crossed the #Oskil River and seized Novomlynsk (21km NE of #Kupyansk) but noted the absence of photo or video evidence for this claimed advance. isw.pub/UkrWar060423