Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian #counteroffensive. ISW has observed increased combat activity in different sectors of the frontline and assesses that Ukrainian forces are making territorial gains despite Russian claims to the contrary.🧵⬇️
2/ The signals include Russian MoD claims that Ukrainian forces launched an unsuccessful “large-scale offensive” on June 4 & Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s June 5 statement that Ukrainian forces are “transferring to offensive actions” in some unspecified areas.
3/ Russian officials have historically immediately claimed that Ukrainian counter-offensives failed even when the counter-offensives ultimately succeed.
4/ @TheStudyofWar has indeed observed an increase in combat activity in different sectors of the frontline but will not speculate about or forecast the intent, weighting, or focus of Ukrainian counter-offensive operations.
5/ ISW will assess the outcome of Ukrainian counter-offensive operations when it can do so without compromising Ukrainian operational security, in accordance with ISW policy.
6/ A successful counteroffensive operation may take days, weeks, or even months before its outcome becomes fully clear, during which time Russian sources may falsely claim to have defeated it.
ISW is committed to helping policymakers and the public understand what is occurring in #Ukraine without reporting details that would in any way compromise Ukraine’s ability to liberate its occupied lands.
Follow-up 🧵on ISW policy and what to expect from us ⬇️
2/ We will remain conservative in mapping and assessing Ukrainian advances given that control of terrain may rapidly change during mechanized operations.
3/ ISW will not compromise Ukrainian operational security or report on anything the Russians don’t already know based on our extensive and detailed study of Russian publicly available sources.
Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western #Donetsk Oblast and eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ Ukrainian forces continued to target frontline and rear areas in southern #Ukraine. Russian sources claimed that Russian air defenses intercepted Ukrainian missiles targeting #Berdyansk and #Melitopol on June 3. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
3/ Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces struck additional areas in #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4: near #Melitopol, northeast of Melitopol near Chernihivka, and near the frontline near Verbove and Polohy. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced 400 meters in an unspecified area in the Svatove direction and liberated a significant area of the Ivanivskyi forest. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
3/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces crossed the #Oskil River and seized Novomlynsk (21km NE of #Kupyansk) but noted the absence of photo or video evidence for this claimed advance. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in SW #Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ #Prigozhin claimed that some unspecified reports suggest that #Ukrainian forces established observation posts in the southwestern outskirts of #Bakhmut and recommended that the #Russian forces in the city take action if these reports are true.
3/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar and other Ukrainian officials have continuously reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the southwestern outskirts of #Bakhmut since May 20, when #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner forces seized the entirety of the city.
The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in #Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids into #Russia. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ The contradictory reporting from official Russian sources about the situation in #Belgorod Oblast and Gladkov’s apparent personal decision to respond to the RDK and LSR suggests that the MoD and Gladkov are not coordinating their responses to the raids.
3/ ISW has previously reported that Russian officials have disproportionately responded to the limited raids into #Russia to assuage growing Russian anxiety about the war in #Ukraine while supporting ongoing info operations that aim to present the war as existential to Russia.
NEW: Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into #Belgorod Oblast, #Russia on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ Geolocated footage published on June 4 shows LSR and RDK personnel advancing towards Novaya Tavolzhanka (3.5km from the #Ukrainian border).
3/ #Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav #Gladkov confirmed that there was fighting within Novaya Tavolzhanka, although the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Western Military District and the Russian Border Guard Service...