Thread by @douglewinenergy

#ERCOT grid update: Things will be tight on the grid today and tomorrow — very tight. ERCOT projecting 82.9 gigawatt peak @ 4pm and a spread between supply and demand of only 1800 megawatts tomorrow around 7pm. #txlege #energytwitter 1/

Solar power is having a massive impact on the grid this summer. Without it, we would be in serious trouble and have a much higher likelihood of outages. #Solar will top out right at or above 12GW and... (cont.) #energytwitter #txenergy

... is still producing ~9GW in the hour of tightest reserves. The 3+GW of batteries in ERCOT are mostly providing backup reserves in case of shortage (like when a major power plant goes offline like a nuke did last week) but is also injecting 500MW to the market when needed. 3/

Going forward, more solar & storage plus demand flexibility (think managed EV charging and discharging, pre-cooling homes, etc) have the ability to make this summer worry a thing of the past — that is, with the right policy framework... 4/
douglewin.substack.com/p/the-most-imp…

Thermal outages as of 9am are 9.2GW. Typical levels are 5GW and high level is 8.4GW. It's concerning to see this persistent level of thermal outages throughout this heat wave. This is a major problem and is likely exacerbated by PUCT/ERCOT's "conservative operations" #txlege 5/

They're likely running these thermal plants way too hard throughout the year, "RUCing" units (making them run) even when there's minimal reliability risk. Generators have been complaining about this for two years and it looks like the PUCT's chickens are coming home to roost.

In better news, the #nuclear unit that broke on Friday is coming back online and will likely be at full strength by the evening peak. This is really good news as we may need every megawatt we can get. #energytwitter 7/

Other reasons why outages are unlikely: We probably won't reach the 82.9GW forecasted for Tuesday. ERCOT is systematically picking the highest demand forecast. ERCOT is also picking the lowest wind & solar forecast often making the reserves look smaller than they are. #txlege 8/

Also, large customers will use #demandresponse to lower their 2024 electric bills by managing their peaks during today and tomorrow. It's a pricing structure called 4CP and it reduces ~2-3GW at peak hours but is unavailable to residential or small commercial customers. 9/

Solar is helping a ton during this heat wave w/ high thermal outages but grid operators need more flexible resources like demand flexibility and storage. Policymakers need to create policy frameworks to give them those tools. #energytwitter

Also, the nuke plant breaking illustrates why the TPPF/Senate proposal to allocate backup reserve costs to generation is dumb. The biggest driver of ancillary services on the system is the biggest power plant. Should we assign most or all ancillary costs to nukes? Of course not.

We all pay for backup reserves bc we all benefit from them. If you assign ancillary costs to generation based on how much ancillary services they require, you can say goodbye to the state’s 4 nuclear units, which is one reason why the state’s generators opposed the proposal. 12/

HB 1500 requires a study of cost allocation. It should, if done right, show that it would be the end of Texas' nuclear plants & raise costs by billions for no reliability benefit. I wrote about this & the TPPF's equally dangerous firming requirement, here: douglewin.substack.com/p/let-them-eat…

Again, things will be very tight but still low probability (not zero, but low) of outages this week. Depends on heat / demand for power, thermal power plants holding up, and wind & solar performance. It takes *all three* of those going poorly to end up in outages.

Last but not least, I’m reading a pre-print of @jeffgoodell's The Heat Will Kill You First. With the kind of heat *and humidity* in Texas right now, the body just can’t sweat enough to keep cool. Be careful out there. Taking precaution is literally a matter of life and death.

Pre-order this and get smart about these extreme heat waves which are now, unfortunately, the new normal. We've all got to get smarter about heat. It can literally save lives. amazon.com/Heat-Will-Kill…

Unfortuantely, due to #txlege and Gov Abbott, local governments will soon no longer be able to require breaks for workers. This will likely lead to deaths of construction workers and others who work outside. It goes into effect Sept. 1.
texastribune.org/2023/06/16/tex…

Finally, continuing to monitor power outages in several states. Over 200k Texans are still without power & another 200k Louisianans & now 500k Oklahomans. Massive storms, heat waves, etc. Our resiliency efforts are nowhere near adequate to deal with the #ClimateCrisis. End🧵