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NEW | The Nigerien junta is unlikely to cave to international pressure to undo its coup, which will force the junta to seek alternative auxiliary forces like the Wagner Group and may prompt a regional ECOWAS military intervention. The latest on Niger: 1/8 https://t.co/nwjH4sI58lcriticalthreats.org/analysis/salaf…
The Nigerien military will need to compensate for the loss of Western troops, supplies, and funding. The junta’s most likely options would be strengthening civilian militias, as Burkina Faso did, or hiring the Kremlin-funded Wagner Group, like Mali did. 2/8
Supporting civilian militias or deploying the Wagner Group will almost certainly increase human rights abuses and exacerbate communal tensions, which Salafi-jihadi groups will use to expand. 3/8
An ECOWAS intervention in Niger may happen and would be a most dangerous scenario. Constraints on neighboring militaries put them in a poor position to support a long-term intervention, and the costs of intervening in Niger would be greater than previous ECOWAS interventions. 4/8
CTP has recorded the following indicators of a regional intervention in Niger:
1. Ordered troop or asset redeployments in likely troop-contributing countries.
2. High-level discussions between leaders of participating countries
3. Evacuations of foreign nationals from Niger. 5/8
1. Ordered troop or asset redeployments in likely troop-contributing countries.
2. High-level discussions between leaders of participating countries
3. Evacuations of foreign nationals from Niger. 5/8
An ECOWAS military intervention would create immediate opportunities for Salafi-jihadi groups to strengthen by significantly reducing counterterrorism pressure in West Africa as counterinsurgent forces prioritize each other over the insurgencies. 6/8
An ECOWAS military intervention would likely worsen the security situation in Niger and the region, regardless of its outcome. Regional forces lack the capacity for a successful peacekeeping mission, and junta-backed auxiliary forces would be prone to human rights abuses. 7/8
Niger and regional powers could also come to a compromise involving the release of President Bazoum and a roadmap to restoring civilian rule. However, it is unlikely that such a compromise deal would mitigate the fallout between Niger and its Western partners. 8/8
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