Thread by @VladLupan

I was asked about #Ukraine peace plan last week. I wanted to point out to #Russia option in “worst case” to temporarily freeze/slow down the war, like in 2014 Ukraine or 1992 in #Moldova to then unfreeze it at more favorable times as in #Georgia or Checnya
dw.com/uk/u-zelenskog…

2. Russia signals of “being ready to negotiate” should therefore be considered in the light of its previous MO of freezing conflicts to reopen them later, rather than genuine desire to solve them - that is also contradicted by prior statements and other actions.

3. 👆👇That’s 1reason why I pointed out #Ukraine will consider its own timing for negotiations & will rely on previous evidence to navigate this conflict scenario - prior conflicts #Russia initiated & adding itself as a “mediator” freezing them, Ru internal decisions, etc.

https://twitter.com/vladlupan/status/1828097381415731617

4. The main problem for #Ukraine is #US & #EU (Germany et al) misinterpretation of or wishful thinking abt #Russia ‘s actual goals with Kremlin’s statements about the “readiness to negotiate”, as previous talks have shown, even in Ukraine’s own case. They were not in good faith.

https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1780183950507262201

5. I too pointed in April 2024 towards the problem of bad faith negotiations in #Ukraine by #Russia - as an international mediator or national negotiator of 2 conflicts with Russia and/or Russia supported groups. Both conflicts were frozen on purpose & there was an acceptance of it internationally, which is what Ukraine wants to avoid now.

6. Consequently to US inherent “indecision” or some European nations desire to “go back to normal” (trade with Russia), Ukraine won’t deny negotiations, but will attempt to:
A. Create a momentum for weapons use in Russia (tactical gains ahead of negotiations)
(next tweet)

7. … cont’d:
B. Explain & promote its position- effectively lobby it to its allies.
C. Then, depending on its capacity or failure to strengthen its position (especially post US elections) will choose if it starts negotiations & with preconditions & at its own place and time.

8. @ISW previously reported about #Russia ‘s unwillingness to hold good faith negotiations in #Ukraine . So, this & prior evidence in at least 4 other wars shows Kremlin possibly attempting to temporarily “freeze” the war & have a respite, as well as consequent Ukraine response👆

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1833490635367600325

@isw @threadreaderapp please unroll