1/ Brexit briefing by top Barnier adviser @StefaanDeRynck about to start at Chatham House. His comments on trade options will be particularly keenly awaited...
2/ De Rynck says phase two talks will 'not just encompass trade but also look at questions related to the stability of the European continent, police cooperation, counter-terrorism.'
Phase 2 will also see ongoing work on the divorce issues: 'In the next phase on citizens’ rights we’ll continue to discuss a number of issues. We’ve reached sufficient progress but that’s not full progress.'
De Rynck seeks to reassure citizens' groups such as @The3Million that Brexit agreement contains adequate safeguards for them. Insists it does not contain 'any discretion to UK authorities to deviate from free movement rights under EU law' in its treatment of them.
5/ De Rynck fairly uncompromising on transition: 'New EU rules that come online will need to be applied in the UK. No cherry-picking or what one could call a buffet-style transition where one picks the bits one likes.'
6/ Says these tough conditions 'are in the interests of the UK and EU economy alike' as businesses and citizens only want to have to make one set of changes.
7/ De Rynck says EU will start 'exploring' trade options with UK unofficially before March. But can't start talking properly until then: 'We’d like to know first what the UK wants from the future relationship.'
8/ De Rynck on Govt's red lines: 'UK will have less obligations to EU, that’s essence of taking back control. Other consequence is UK will have less benefits. At heart of discussion will no doubt be benefits that are lost as a result of obligations renounced.'
9/ Interesting - De Rynck says Britain will get a bespoke trade deal. Says talk of Canada+ and Norway- is 'a pitfall for lots of semantic confusion' because all EU FTAs are different. Any UK deal 'will be typical in view of the respective economies and the negotiated outcome'.
10/ However, with his next breath a fairly blunt warning: 'What you cannot do is square an FTA circle into a Single Market. There can be no sector by sector participation in the SM.'
11/ De Rynck talks about the need to create a 'level playing field' between Britain and the EU. Hints at need to get any deal through national parliaments by saying this 'will be important for public opinion no doubt'.
12/ On future UK deregulation: 'What worries people on EU side is idea the UK will leave SM and we’d have to trust somehow that outcome would be same on UK side in terms of standard setting. That’s not enough glue to keep the system together, that trust.'
13/ To add my own tuppence - EU is far more scared of rapid UK deregulation a la Rees-Mogg than many give voice to. It would seriously threaten the Single Market, so the EU will work hard to try and tie Britain into its regulatory sphere.
14/ De Rynck: 'I don’t think we’ll ever label Brexit a success. It’s a mutual weakening of the two parties.' Says UK-EU cooperation in future 'can work but it won’t be as easy as it happens today.'
15/ De Rynck adds: 'Economically for us Brexit is a lose-lose situation, how do we minimise losses economically on both sides. It means there will be barriers where they don’t exist today no matter how ambitious the FTA could be.'
16/ He says there is a little known services provision in CETA allowing Canadian companies to operate within the EU on level terms with European ones. But cautions: 'It's Much more modest than the Single Market. In terms of market access it’s very limited.'
17/ De Rynck: 'We are continuing with our no deal planning and our agencies are putting out notices to the industry to explain what might happen and how they might want to prepare.'
18/ Could the transition be extended beyond 2020? 'If we’re pressed for time one or two issues could get more priority than others but it’s way too early to start thinking about that.'
