Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ge2017

Most recents (24)

Labour Party may be charged with taking its traditional working class support for granted whilst pandering to urban youth, a minority of whom, admittedly, were at least born into the working class. Labour went into #GE2017 pledged to scrap universal university tuition fees ...
... on its first day in office and with a perceived intent to, at some point, write off outstanding student debt, incurred to pay for tuition fees. Only a minority of 18 to 21 year olds go to university, a disproportionate number of them are drawn from the middle and upper class.
In comparison, Labour had no hard edged pledges on education for the many whose offspring do not expect to go to university. In prioritising scrapping fees, Labour pandered not just to urban youth, but also their families etc. It also planned to leave in place £7bn out of £9bn ..
Read 52 tweets
Seeing titles of articles sympathetic to Trump in right-wing propaganda outlets being changed, and watching all the high-profile right-wing grifting cranks furiously deleting their tweets about how Trump 'really isn't that bad' is hilarious!

Douglas Murray article in the @spectator:
Matt Goodwin - on the advisory panel of Toby Young's "Free Speech Union" - has been particularly busy!
Read 6 tweets
3 years ago today, I stood on the stage in the counting location of #Hackney and gave my #GE2017 concession speech. I lost the vote, but I will never lose the memory.

A great election. A beautiful moment. #GeneralElection @luke_r_parker @DaveRaval @Meg_HillierMP @GreenRebJohnson
"So many people said I couldn't do this. Since I was made homeless I managed to get through university and now I'm here. Just because something bad happens in your life you can't let it define you. It's a hurdle you have to jump over rather than a lifestyle you belong to."
Read 3 tweets
🚨 If you're the government, look away now 🚨

What follows are some grim polling figures from the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK on voting intention, public confidence, best PM.

A Thread.
CON lead down from 26 points in early April to 3 points this week. That's a 23-point fall in 8 weeks.

CON 43 (- on last week)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 6 (-)
SNP 5 (-)
GRN 3 (-)

Opinium polled 2,002 people online, June 4-5
Johnson’s lead as best PM at record low - just 1 point.

36% think he would be best PM (-)
35% think Starmer (+2)

Disapproval of the way Johnson is acting as PM has continued to increase.

44% now disapprove, up 2 points.

The level approving of him remains on 37%.
Read 7 tweets
Are we going to see a repeat of #GE2017 ? In my Friday post… summarising latest poll trends, I said Labour need to focus on C2DE, Leavers & Lib Dems.

With the polls we've had over the weekend, this thread summarises what I am seeing. /1
CON-LAB lead is unchanged from the start of the election since both LAB & CON are up 7 pts. If this remains the case, it will be a Conservative majority.

Note figures for the latest week includes some from end of last week. My week is defined to be Thurs-Weds. /2
LIB DEMS 1 - Labour needs to first recover its #GE2017 voters lost to the Lib Dems. Having lost 40% of LAB17 voters by the time Theresa May stood down, they've recovered a third. Of the remaining 2/3, half are still with LD&GRN and half with CON&BRX. /3
Read 8 tweets
My #GE2019 poll tracker is now up to date on my blog here

As before, I've compared latest polls to election results from GE74 to #GE17 & broken the data down by region, #GE2017, #Brexit & class.

Full details in the blog but here are the key pts. /1
#ConservativeParty are back to #GE2017 levels in all regions. Votes are being redistributed from remainers to leavers and the key to a majority is the efficiency of this transfer. /2
#Labour are around 10 pts behind where they were in #GE2017. Can they repeat the comeback of GE17 again? The key is reclaiming the defectors to the #LibDems and they have been doing that but they are leaking to the #Tories as well. /3
Read 6 tweets
So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here,, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
Read 18 tweets
#TacticalVoting is a good plan, and it was promoted heavily it before the 2017 GE. Here are two seats that the #Conservatives still won. In #RichmondPark, where #Labour are never going to win, they took 5773 votes. Zac Goldsmith won with a majority of 45.
In Hastings and Rye, The LibDems, who were never going to win, took 1885 votes. Amber Rudd won by 346 votes. Had the #LibDems and #Labour stood aside appropriately in these two seats, and told its supporters who to support, there would have probably been more favourable results.
My concern is that, like in 2017, the #TacticalVoting message won't reach everybody. It is a shame that at least one of these parties won't entertain any concept of not standing in some constituencies.
Read 9 tweets
THREAD of Boris Johnson getting owned on the campaign trail :-

There is a conceit shared by Tories/Media/Experts that they only lost #GE2017 because Theresa May was a useless campaigner.

Boris Johnson chased out of his alma mater Oxford by students
A brilliant bunch of teenagers in Plymouth slam Boris Johnson/Tories/media and defend Corbyn

Also call #GE2017 result better than all the pollsters and 'experts'

Boris Johnson confronted in St Ives over his Brexit lies
Read 15 tweets
THREAD : This is a full on National Scandal.
I've gone back and looked at BBC's mendacious and cynical use of biased 'vox pops' during #GE2017 all trying to portray one message "disaffected Labour voters who'll vote Tory"
#BBCbias @Ofcom @bbcnewspr @esmewren
@Ofcom @BBCNewsPR @esmewren April 18th -
BBC Newsnight : TONIGHT: The long-standing Labour voters planning to vote for Theresa May this time...
@NickSW9 @nicholaswatt reports for #newsnight
@Ofcom @BBCNewsPR @esmewren @NickSw9 @nicholaswatt April 19th
“I have voted Labour all my life, but I don't think I will in the next election” – long-standing Labour voters on supporting Theresa May

Read 11 tweets
So, where are we today? Overall I would say that the #Labour #Corbyn strategy is working well, and is likely to see Jez in No. 10 at some point in the next year or just over a year.
The #Conservatives are experiencing what looks to me rather like damage ERM crisis did to them in autumn 1992. Have lost 13 points (!) with @YouGov in just six weeks. Bear in mind that experience shows that such falls get worse for some time - could be headed v low.
The moment MV3 failed to pass was a clarifying one, and therefore welcome here - had been wondering for years what was keeping the CON score so high. It was #Brexit. We're now at 50/50 whether it even happens. They will struggle to recover.
Read 14 tweets
I'm not convinced that the political parties understand where "Middle England/Wales" exists. Analysis indicates Ipswich, Sevenoaks, Broxtowe, Wrexham, Newark, Preston, C.Croydon, Basingstoke, Blackley & Broughton + Warrington South are the best seats to understand #EURef (1/7)
This collection of seats represent (by that order) the closest reflection to the average distribution of the Leave vote in England/Wales. It's not the same as picking a seat made up entirely of smaller areas all of which voted 53 Leave 47 Remain (2/7)
Media/politicos often don't get this, they should be visiting parliamentary seats which have a wide degree of diversity within them to test the political temperature. Watford - which nearly made the list - was wisely used for @voteLeave Focus Groups (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Outrage in support of Hodge when she abuses & slanders Corbyn
(It's okay for her to be abusive)
Outrage for Soubry when she is called a Nazi
(yes that's right)
Outrage when Corbyn wears an anorak
Outrage when Corbyn mouths some words
Outrage when Corbyn *dances* #RemembranceDay
(it was photoshopped)
Outrage that Corbyn speaks to Hamas Hezbollah IRA
(how do we heal without dialogue?)
Outrage that Corbyn is an anti-semite
(he's not. It's a smear)
Outrage that Corbyn will Tax those better off
(change is coming)
Outrage Corbyn stands on a Radical Manifesto for a better world
(change is coming)
Outrage that Labour would be wiped out in #GE2017
(they weren't)
Outrage that Corbyn has huge & growing support
(Change is coming)
Outrage that Corbyn is STILL leader of HMO
(change is coming)
Read 13 tweets
So let's get some things straight on this #laboursplit then. /THREAD
People resigning today are hardly 'cateerist' or 'opportunist'. They are fairly likely blowing up their political careers because they've had enough. That's the very opposite of 'opportunism'.
The huge amount of hatred that will be poured out on them online (and elsewhere) today is one MO of New New Labour. It's a design feature, not a bug.
Read 16 tweets
THREAD on the Subject of #Brexit & Respect...with a hint of Betrayal.

#Remain #Remainers, #RemainerNow Pls RT or feel free to Use this whenever you are told to Respect the Non-Binding Referendum & by all means add some more.
1. #Brexiters & #Lexiters have 2 justications, apart from 'we won you lost', for the #BrexitShambles.
Namely that we must RESPECT the #Brexit Ref result & that to seek to overturn it would BETRAY the Will of the 'British People'. (nb they often omit the N. Irish)
2. Respect or Lack of Respect & Betrayal at the heart of should we Respect the EURef 2016 & Who or What is being Betrayed?
Read 22 tweets
The pro-Corbyn take on a new party/PLP split seems deeply muddled. The repeated charge that the SDP kept Thatcher in power, and that a new party could do the same for today's Tories, contains an unspoken admission that there *is* an electoral constituency for such a party. (1/?)
Even if all of the new party's support came from 2017 Labour voters (a highly unlikely outcome) that would still indicate that a significant minority of Labour's base strongly favours a different leader and a more centre-left platform. (2/?)
The balance of power between Left and Right inside the Labour Party may have shifted dramatically to the former, but the fact remains that Labour is a broad electoral coalition, and that preserving said coalition (in some form) is crucial to Corbyn entering government. (3/?)
Read 15 tweets
We are now witnessing the final death throes not just of the May Government, but of the @Conservatives as we have come to know them: self-serving, self-obsessed, self-promoting, self-seeking, self-ish, self-destroying, Good riddance!
UK's electorate, especially our Youth, will severely punish @Conservatives at EVERY future ballot opportunity, Ad Infinitum! This process started with #GE2017 - but if it were re-run as #GE2018, they'd be right OUT! We demand a #PeoplesVote to stop this insanity and halt #Brexit!
In essence: The UK has kidded itself to believe that economic gravity can be defied. It can't. For people to be seriously misled in 2016 is bad enough; but for Blukip Mayhem & Co to NOW be leading them towards disaster in 2017/18, absent any #PeoplesVote, is totally unforgivable!
Read 5 tweets
Which party has the oldest average age of MPs? THREAD
First off, we must thank-you all. We launched a poll on Monday expecting maybe 500 responses maximum. Instead we had a whopping three-thousand-two-hundred-and-thirty votes on our Twitter poll.

That’s ridiculous.
We asked you which party you thought had the oldest average age of MPs.

Most of you, 66%, thought it was the @Conservatives, then the @LibDems (15%), then @UKLabour (14%), with the @theSNP coming in last with (5%).

I bet the SNP are feeling fairly youthful right about now.
Read 25 tweets
I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

Read 55 tweets
1. Worst national leadership in my lifetime forcing through the most damaging, misguided & missold policy I can remember. Ideology & vested self interest replace statesmanship, soundbites replace sound judgement & autocracy subverts democracy.
#Brexit harms us irreparably #FBPE
2. A flawed Leave campaign based on lies, deceit, disingenuity & over simplification & a #Remain one fought w/o any positivity from the Govt & no real commitment from Labour, whose leader was virtually AWOL, did no justice to #Brexit complexity & betrayed our democratic process.
3. A mere 37% of voters/26.5% of the Ppl voted leave in a legally Non-Binding test of public opinion which has been corrupted, on the basis of an illegitimate political promise & interpreted as being the irrefutable Will of the Ppl.
The 1st is insufficient to claim the latter!
Read 39 tweets
Among reasons for opposing Brexit is UK's unpreparedness for such a huge change! Unless we stop this now, the purported benefits may be less than pre-sold? and the warned downsides may well be worse? If either or both? our public finances could implode under self-imposed strain.
Consider UK's low productivity relative to our G20 peers - well publicised but poorly understood? Improving 'this' over a sustained period would surely have been preferable pre-requisite prior to anything as profound as Brexit!
Look at UK's ballooning national debt, which has 'more than quadrupled' since John Major left office in 1997. Ask any ordinary Jo if they'd fancy racking up such a huge mortgage? (ours is £2 trillion) before resigning a job to venture into business on their own!
Read 32 tweets
Thread: Why are Lib Dems stuck on 7-8% when both Labour & Tories so poor/extreme atm? Easy: under FPTP, vote often counts more if used negatively. 1/
You might be a natural supporter of Lib Dems or Greens or whoever- but know they have little chance of getting elected in yr constituency. 2/
So if you can’t get the MP or the govt you want, what do you do with your vote if you want to have some kind of impact? 3/
Read 14 tweets
1. Recently there has been some discussion about the role of social class and Labour support in #GE2017. This chart below busts some myths
2. Chart measures each constituency in England by deprivation and divides them into deciles. Clear correlation: More deprived = More Labour
3. As I noted before, an EU referendum chart wouldn't look at all like this. But how to show it?
Read 27 tweets
After ~300 of us spent Mon eve watching the Register-to-Vote site stats on GOV.UK, I just checked aggregates.… /1
On Mon,last day to register for #ge2017, 662k people did:
256k <25s
207k 25-34s
89k 35-44s
47.9k 45-54s
21.2k 55-64s
7.7k 65-74s
3.5k 75+
Yes, 662,000 users aren't necessarily 662,000 UK potential voters registering. Some will be repeats, some may not in fact be eligible. /3
Read 5 tweets

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