Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ge2017

Most recents (24)

🧵 6 years ago today, I was carrying out a few last minute tasks as part of @jeremycorbyn’s #GE2017 social media team before hunkering down at Southside, Victoria Street (Labour HQ) waiting for the exit poll, with a strange sense of euphoria. (1/7) Image
Just a few weeks earlier, we’d been 20-25 points down in the polls & hadn’t been given a chance. The Tories (& some on our own side, it seems) we’re rubbing their hands at the thought of teaching us socialist oiks a lesson, to prise our hands off the levers of power. (2/7)
Except it didn’t quite work out like that. Week after week of that election campaign, we drew the Tories closer. The excitement of eating into their lead was like nothing I’ve ever experienced. We were turning the tables & making people eat their words. (3/7)
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[thread on 2019] In politics, I think it’s important to be honest. If you don’t you’ll either (a) be found out or (b) not learn. So, in that spirit, I have to say that #GE2019 wasn’t the best I’ve been involved in & compared unfavourably to 2017. It’s important to ask why. (1/21)
Of course, there were factors that could be described as external that contributed to how hard that campaign was for us as socialists, Brexit being the principal one. And we now know that many of our own side were working against. But it wasn’t all bad luck & sabotage. (2/21)
I was in Labour HQ for #GE2017, working mainly on @jeremycorbyn’s social media & I have to say, it was breathtakingly exciting. It felt like we were breaking new ground & the connection between Jeremy’s office & the movement outside (offline & online) was palpable. (3/21)
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#THREAD

A literature review compiled by @transparify shows news Editors & journalists fail to distinguish between genuine think tanks that conduct independent policy research, & fake tanks that abuse the label to surreptitiously promote vested interests of hidden paymasters.
Due to the financial opacity of fake tanks, it's impossible to tell whether those who pull the strings behind the scene are domestic or foreign players: Tufton St's Adam Smith Institute is so opaque it is not only unclear who gives the money, but also which entities spend it.
Such hidden influence is especially worrying when self-proclaimed ‘think tanks’ use the media to shape coverage of party politics in the run-up to an election.

The IEA released a statement in the run-up to #GE2017 denouncing @UKLabour's manifesto as “delusional & incoherent”.
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#THREAD

Master of 'wedge issues', Lynton Crosby, has been attending Boris Johnson’s meetings in No 10.

The political strategist, whose advisory firm has represented tobacco as well as oil & gas interests, is at the heart of Johnson's political strategy.

theguardian.com/politics/2022/…
Like many senior Tories, Crosby is a master of 'Divide & Rule', & an expert in the 'Dark Arts' of voter manipulation, infamous for his 'dead cat' strategy & the promotion of toxic & deliberately divisive 'wedge issues' - evidence of which is everywhere in Britain at the moment.
A 'wedge issue' - a key component of the classic 'divide & rule' political strategy - is described as a political or social issue, often of a controversial or divisive nature, which splits apart a demographic or population group.

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#OnThisDay in Labour history 5 years ago it was polling day in the 2017 general election🌹

While tens of thousands of Labour activists started knocking on doors, my day started with a meeting at the Cabinet Office with Karie Murphy to discuss arrangements if should Labour win🧵
Labour had a 24-point deficit when the campaign began. But in their final polls the major polling companies put the deficit anywhere between a 1-point and a 13-point lead for the Tories

In the last week we met 3 times with the Cabinet Secretary, as they planned for every outcome
Walking along Victoria Street (by Labour HQ) with a colleague in the early summer sunshine, and exhausted by 8 weeks of gruelling election campaign, I recall saying:

“Whatever happens tonight, I’m really proud of what we’ve done – I don’t think we could have done any more”
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Let's have a quick #THREAD on troubled Johnson-brown-nosing robotic hard-right Tory MP Jonathan Gullis - a controversial member of the European Research Group, & a parliamentary backer of FREER, an initiative run by the opaquely funded neoliberal Institute of Economic Affairs.
He stood in Washington & Sunderland West at #GE2017, losing to the incumbent Labour MP Sharon Hodgson, but somehow was elected as the MP for Stoke-on-Trent North at #GE2019, unseating Labour's Ruth Smeeth & becoming the first Conservative to represent the constituency.
At the time of his election, Gullis was employed as a school teacher & head of year at an Academy in Sutton Coldfield, & somewhat bizarrely for a Tory MP, served as the school's trade union representative, but he's spent his time as an MP railing against the Left & the 'woke'.
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Five years ago today, the Labour Party manifesto for the 2017 General Election was officially launched at Bradford University 🌹

Some had been so excited by it, they wanted people to have it early … but this 🧵 is the story of what happened next …
When he came off stage, Jeremy signed a copy and gave it to me:

“Andrew, a brilliant and superb piece of work to transform lives. Love to you … in deep appreciation, Jeremy”
The manifesto was fully costed, in ‘Funding Britain’s Future’, published the same day

It was the first time a party had done this – credit John McDonnell's innovation and Rory's perspiration and dedication

As John said "The only numbers in Tory manifesto are the page numbers"
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Five years ago today, I was working in Labour HQ on the #GE2017 campaign

In two days’ time the manifesto was going before the Clause V meeting of 80 delegates for sign-off, before its launch the following week

Just after 9pm, an ashen-looking @schneiderhome approached me… 🧵
He told me that the Daily Mirror and Daily Telegraph had the manifesto, and were going to publish it

I had been working over 100 hours a week, non-stop writing, editing and negotiating - alongside a brilliant team doing similarly

I was gutted and angry, wondering “HOW?”
Most other senior staff & politicians were in another meeting, which I'd missed to focus on final edits before Clause V

A febrile inquiry and crisis management plan kicked into gear immediately. This had never happened before in British electoral history

Let’s start with how…
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#THREAD

Somehow I've managed to stay blissfully unaware of grotesque hard-right dimwit & Tory MP Karl McCartney.

Who is ?

Let's allow his words, record, & myriad investigations to speak for themselves...
In March 2017, the Electoral Commission fined the @Conservatives £70,000 following an investigation into Party spending during #GE2015 (the same Electoral Commission that oversees free & fair elections, & which the antidemocratic Tories have just removed independence from).
During #GE2015 coaches of activists were transported to marginal constituencies, enabling its candidates to gain a financial advantage over opponents. In consequence, Karl McCartney was investigated by Lincolnshire Police over spending rules.

thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/06/lincol…
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Five years ago today, Theresa May announced she was making a statement in Downing Street ...

... despite repeated assurances that "I'm not going to be calling a snap election", she called a snap election 🧵
The subject of the statement was not announced, speculation swirled: Had a Royal died? Was she resigning? Was she calling a snap election?

May wanted a bigger majority to deliver Brexit, and said the election was about two issues: Brexit & leadership

The press was enthused
The pollsters at the time confirmed the confidence of the Tory press:

ComRes put the Conservatives on 50% and Labour on 25%.

YouGov had the Tories on 49% and Labour on 24%
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James Weinberg researches the psychological pressures of political life & the problem of violence & intimidation of politicians.

Dog-whistle & aggressive populism, partisan & personalising political news & improved democratic education all play a role.

theconversation.com/david-amess-ki…
Even before the challenging #COVID19 pandemic, a recent Hansard Society audit of political engagement concluded that “opinions of the systems of governing are at their lowest point in the 15-year Audit series – worse now than in the aftermath of the MPs’ expenses scandal”.
In the #GE2017, 56% of surveyed parliamentary candidates expressed concern about abuse & intimidation. Misuse of anonymous social media accounts has intensified these problems & created a toxic environment for MPs that regularly exposes them to online rape & murder threats.
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Tory & @UKLabour vote share*, 1918 - 2019.

Only THREE times since 1918, has a vote swing of over 9% been recorded: to a National Govt in 1931, & to Labour in 1945 & 2017.

*The UK's antiquated FPTP electoral system means seats are more important than either votes or vote share.
On three occasions, the party with the most votes did not win the most seats.

In 1929 and in February 1974, Labour polled fewer votes than the Conservatives but had more MPs. In 1951 the Conservatives won the most seats, but received fewer votes than Labour.
Votes/seat #GE2019

SNP 26K
Tory 38K
Labour 51K
LibDems 336K
Greens 865K

#GE2017 resulted in a hung parliament.

At #GE2019, Johnson's Tories got just 329,767 more votes than in 2017, but an 80 seat majority., despite fewer than 3 in 10 of the electorate voting Tory.
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#THREAD

Starmer's Labour risks losing even more of the membership & union support, meaning it would lose the majority of its funding & be in the position of having to appease powerful corporate & elite interests.

More importantly, it runs the risk of losing its identity & soul.
Google 'Keir Starmer & Labour' & you're directed to an uninspiring webpage, entitled "Reform & Unite". 🥱

In "The Labour Party Under Keir Starmer: ‘Thanks, But no “isms” Please!’", Politics Prof Eunice Goes casts a critical eye over Starmer's Labour:

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.11…
Portraying himself "as a competent & unifying leader who has turned the page on Corbyn’s legacy of factionalism & radical politics", & 'downplaying Labour’s socialism', suggests Starmer’s strategy is one of "ideological quietism" that seeks to win the wide support of voters.
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Labour Party may be charged with taking its traditional working class support for granted whilst pandering to urban youth, a minority of whom, admittedly, were at least born into the working class. Labour went into #GE2017 pledged to scrap universal university tuition fees ...
... on its first day in office and with a perceived intent to, at some point, write off outstanding student debt, incurred to pay for tuition fees. Only a minority of 18 to 21 year olds go to university, a disproportionate number of them are drawn from the middle and upper class.
In comparison, Labour had no hard edged pledges on education for the many whose offspring do not expect to go to university. In prioritising scrapping fees, Labour pandered not just to urban youth, but also their families etc. It also planned to leave in place £7bn out of £9bn ..
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Seeing titles of articles sympathetic to Trump in right-wing propaganda outlets being changed, and watching all the high-profile right-wing grifting cranks furiously deleting their tweets about how Trump 'really isn't that bad' is hilarious!

TOO LATE SUCKERS! WE SEE YOU! 🧐
Douglas Murray article in the @spectator:
Matt Goodwin - on the advisory panel of Toby Young's "Free Speech Union" - has been particularly busy!
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🚨 If you're the government, look away now 🚨

What follows are some grim polling figures from the latest @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK on voting intention, public confidence, best PM.

A Thread.
CON lead down from 26 points in early April to 3 points this week. That's a 23-point fall in 8 weeks.

CON 43 (- on last week)
LAB 40 (+1)
LD 6 (-)
SNP 5 (-)
GRN 3 (-)

Opinium polled 2,002 people online, June 4-5
Johnson’s lead as best PM at record low - just 1 point.

36% think he would be best PM (-)
35% think Starmer (+2)

Disapproval of the way Johnson is acting as PM has continued to increase.

44% now disapprove, up 2 points.

The level approving of him remains on 37%.
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Are we going to see a repeat of #GE2017 ? In my Friday post marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk… summarising latest poll trends, I said Labour need to focus on C2DE, Leavers & Lib Dems.

With the polls we've had over the weekend, this thread summarises what I am seeing. /1
CON-LAB lead is unchanged from the start of the election since both LAB & CON are up 7 pts. If this remains the case, it will be a Conservative majority.

Note figures for the latest week includes some from end of last week. My week is defined to be Thurs-Weds. /2
LIB DEMS 1 - Labour needs to first recover its #GE2017 voters lost to the Lib Dems. Having lost 40% of LAB17 voters by the time Theresa May stood down, they've recovered a third. Of the remaining 2/3, half are still with LD&GRN and half with CON&BRX. /3
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My #GE2019 poll tracker is now up to date on my blog here bit.ly/34u8Bky.

As before, I've compared latest polls to election results from GE74 to #GE17 & broken the data down by region, #GE2017, #Brexit & class.

Full details in the blog but here are the key pts. /1
#ConservativeParty are back to #GE2017 levels in all regions. Votes are being redistributed from remainers to leavers and the key to a majority is the efficiency of this transfer. /2
#Labour are around 10 pts behind where they were in #GE2017. Can they repeat the comeback of GE17 again? The key is reclaiming the defectors to the #LibDems and they have been doing that but they are leaking to the #Tories as well. /3
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So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
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#TacticalVoting is a good plan, and it was promoted heavily it before the 2017 GE. Here are two seats that the #Conservatives still won. In #RichmondPark, where #Labour are never going to win, they took 5773 votes. Zac Goldsmith won with a majority of 45.
In Hastings and Rye, The LibDems, who were never going to win, took 1885 votes. Amber Rudd won by 346 votes. Had the #LibDems and #Labour stood aside appropriately in these two seats, and told its supporters who to support, there would have probably been more favourable results.
My concern is that, like in 2017, the #TacticalVoting message won't reach everybody. It is a shame that at least one of these parties won't entertain any concept of not standing in some constituencies.
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THREAD of Boris Johnson getting owned on the campaign trail :-

There is a conceit shared by Tories/Media/Experts that they only lost #GE2017 because Theresa May was a useless campaigner.

Boris Johnson chased out of his alma mater Oxford by students
A brilliant bunch of teenagers in Plymouth slam Boris Johnson/Tories/media and defend Corbyn

Also call #GE2017 result better than all the pollsters and 'experts'

Boris Johnson confronted in St Ives over his Brexit lies
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THREAD : This is a full on National Scandal.
I've gone back and looked at BBC's mendacious and cynical use of biased 'vox pops' during #GE2017 all trying to portray one message "disaffected Labour voters who'll vote Tory"
#BBCbias @Ofcom @bbcnewspr @esmewren
@Ofcom @BBCNewsPR @esmewren April 18th -
BBC Newsnight : TONIGHT: The long-standing Labour voters planning to vote for Theresa May this time...
@NickSW9 @nicholaswatt reports for #newsnight
@Ofcom @BBCNewsPR @esmewren @NickSw9 @nicholaswatt April 19th
“I have voted Labour all my life, but I don't think I will in the next election” – long-standing Labour voters on supporting Theresa May

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So, where are we today? Overall I would say that the #Labour #Corbyn strategy is working well, and is likely to see Jez in No. 10 at some point in the next year or just over a year.
The #Conservatives are experiencing what looks to me rather like damage ERM crisis did to them in autumn 1992. Have lost 13 points (!) with @YouGov in just six weeks. Bear in mind that experience shows that such falls get worse for some time - could be headed v low.
The moment MV3 failed to pass was a clarifying one, and therefore welcome here - had been wondering for years what was keeping the CON score so high. It was #Brexit. We're now at 50/50 whether it even happens. They will struggle to recover.
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I'm not convinced that the political parties understand where "Middle England/Wales" exists. Analysis indicates Ipswich, Sevenoaks, Broxtowe, Wrexham, Newark, Preston, C.Croydon, Basingstoke, Blackley & Broughton + Warrington South are the best seats to understand #EURef (1/7)
This collection of seats represent (by that order) the closest reflection to the average distribution of the Leave vote in England/Wales. It's not the same as picking a seat made up entirely of smaller areas all of which voted 53 Leave 47 Remain (2/7)
Media/politicos often don't get this, they should be visiting parliamentary seats which have a wide degree of diversity within them to test the political temperature. Watford - which nearly made the list - was wisely used for @voteLeave Focus Groups (3/7)
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