Very Long Thread - it has been a while since I wrote on this :)
I watched the hearing on Ethiopia in #US Congress:
*US (and) EU are terrified of the potential consequences of economic and political collapse in Ethiopia. -1
Whatever doubts they may have, and regardless of the state-led violence in Oromia and Amhara, fragile no-war no-peace situation in Tigray, they think collapse is a scenario that must be avoided at any cost. Plus they want to keep Ethiopia within their orbit -2
Nov 29, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
#Ethiopia needs dialogue but historical contestation not cause of war
1.There are distinct understandings of Ethiopian history, and how that sd inform nature n institutional manifestations of Ethiopia. We have never had chance to agree thru dialogue, deliberation. We must now -1
2. Ongoing war started as power struggle for CONTROL OF THE CENTRE, not because there was serious threat to power of states. The enduring historical contestation provided TPLF a palatable and simple vocabulary. Historical contestation was not cause, merely the justification -2
In war, opportunities for peace are rare and fleeting!
Last two, three weeks were hopeful after Feds finally opened possiblity for negotiated peace.
Instead of engaging in good faith, TPLF put preconditions that they know are deal breakers -1
This time, TPLF chose for war coz they believed their own illusion that victory was imminent.
But if peace isn't possible, what choice is there than try and end the war? No side can afford to be on permanent war footing.
So I am not surprised Haile or anyone wants to join! -2
- Has little to do with level of #decentralisation of power ordinarily associated with these notions
A critical mass of Ethiopians support #federalism-incl most, if not all, forces within ruling party - incl Abiy - 1
For #ethnonationalists, I believe, any politics based on individual #equality (citizenship or republican politics) is #Unitarist - so #Nigeria, #Kenya (which ban ethnic parties), #Germany and #UnitedStates are Unitary, regardless of their robust federal/devolved structures - 2
