1/8 Here’s the [fairly] simple math on why YOUR actions matter. 1 case of #COVID19 spread to ~3 people X 10 generations of spread (IF NO #PUBLICHEALTH MEASURES) = 88,573 cumulative cases & many deaths in just ~5 weeks. See how it happens:
2/8 Think of yourself as the red dot in the middle who could spread to 3 contacts IF no #publichealth measures. This shows just 3 generations of spread from 1 (YOU) to 39 other cases in just 12 days (~4 days btw. each generation).
1/3 Almost 11,000 #FluWatchers reporting this week with only 0.09% reporting symptoms of cough and fever.
Every report from you is helping our understanding of #COVID19.
2/3 It is important to keep reporting even if you are healthy! Thank you to all the FluWatchers reporting each week. Keep up the great work! #TogetherApart
3/3 Answering 2 simple Yes/No questions a week can help track COVID-19 activity in your community. Support #publichealth in your community by joining FluWatchers. The more participants in your area, the more accurate the data. #CitizenScience
1/10 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: all over the country people have sacrificed & adapted to slow the spread of COVID-19 by staying home these many weeks. Sadly, home is not a safe place for the many people experiencing family violence.
3/10 Some jurisdictions have observed ↑ reports of domestic violence, calls to crisis support lines & demand for emergency shelter during #COVID19, while child welfare orgs observe a concerning ↓ in reporting of child abuse & neglect.
2/7 However, the pattern, extent & drivers of #COVID19 have varied greatly across 🇨🇦, ranging from zero cases in Nunavut & no community spread in PEI/other territories to community spread with varying degrees of control in other provinces.
3/7 Quebec & Ontario have dominated #COVID19 cases, accounting for over 86% reported cases overall & over 90% in last 2 weeks.
1/10 As restrictions are relaxed, places are reopening & the weather warms, we should all be feeling better, right? Yet this is not necessarily the case for many of us. Some are still concerned esp. about risks of #COVID19 severe outcomes. #COVIDCoping
2/10 The reality is we have adapted staying at home into our daily routines over the weeks and months of the #COVID19 pandemic and it has now become our habit.
3/10 Some habits that we’ve developed during #COVID19, like more frequent #handwashing and spending more time with our families, can be good things that we’ll want to carry on with going forward. #COVIDCoping
1/4 When it comes to peaceful protest during #COVID19, virtual protest is the safest bet. First consider the risks to yourself, your family & community. Follow #publichealth advice and let that be your guide to safe & peaceful protest. #TogetherApart
2/4 When we feel strongly about something, it’s natural to want to stand up, join others & be heard. If you can’t protest virtually during #COVID19, GO OUT SMART to peaceful protest. 1st check local #publichealth guidance on safe gathering size.
1/4 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: With slowed epidemic growth & the Victoria Day long weekend upon us, getting outside is top of mind. At the same time, many Canadians are concerned about how we can go out safely. This is a reasonable concern.
2/4 As we continue down the curve, there are lessons to be learnt from other countries that are ahead of us on this path. Move too soon, relax too much & COVID-19 will come back. #COVID19 is still active in many areas of 🇨🇦, so we must remain vigilant.
3/4 The reality is that #COVID19 is still spreading in some areas and it will be with us for the foreseeable future. So as local authorities continue to slowly reopen recreational, social, & economic spaces, the right & safest way to go out is to go OUT SMART. #OutSmartEpidemics
1/6 Did you know that #handwashing with soap & water destroys
the novel #coronavirus that causes #COVID19? Soap molecules are attracted to fat so they get into the virus’ shell (made of fat & protein), then break it apart.
2/6 This causes the virus to dissolve in water, disintegrating so it flushes down the drain. Any kind of soap will do! You don’t need antibacterial or other specialsoaps. #SaveLivesCleanYourHands
3/6 What you do need, is the right amount of time and care to rub the soap all over every part of your hands – that’s why you should #WashYourHands
for at least 20 seconds.
1/8 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: despite a jump ↑ in the daily case count, with Quebec reporting >1,300 back-dated cases, our current case doubling time is 20 days, slowed from 3-5 day doubling early on in the epidemic.
2/8 As we inch closer to social & economic reopening, many people are feeling a range of emotions from excited anticipation to nervous apprehension. Mixed feelings are understandable, given uncertainties that lay ahead. #COVIDCopingca.portal.gs
3/8 Our collective efforts have slowed the growth of #COVID19 overall. In some places, the epidemic has been brought under good control & the time is right for a cautious reopening. #publichealth
1/8 This weekend I am reflecting on what 🇨🇦’s #COVID19 cases and deaths mean in human terms. There is so much behind these daily numbers, it is almost impossible to encapsulate in words.
2/8 Each one of the cases counted has been an illness, striking fear and concern in a person and their family, friends and community. Each death has been an incalculable tragedy – requiring goodbyes from a distance. #COVID19bit.ly/3fm5AsD
3/8 It is in these unimaginable tragic situations, that we are most thankful for everyone on the frontlines of this crisis. Offering comforting words, human connection & healing touches. #COVID19
1/3 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: In lieu of a daily in-person update to the media, I have issued a statement you can read in full here: bit.ly/3bZqGLd
2/3 While I remain cautiously optimistic about the trajectory of #COVID19 in 🇨🇦, it is important that we all continue to be vigilant with our duty to protect one another, especially to #ProtecttheVulnerable, as we navigate the next few weeks. #StrongerTogether
1/10 Today I presented an update on #GOC modelling that includes two types of approaches: 1. forecasting for short-term predictions & 2. dynamic modelling for hypothetical “if, then” planning scenarios. #COVID19
2/10 In forecasting models, #GOC uses real data from #COVID19 cases in 🇨🇦 to make short-term predictions of the number of cases & deaths we might expect if #epidemiology drivers & #publichealth measures stay relatively stable.
3/10 Today’s #GOC forecast model gives a short-term prediction out to May 5th of between 53,000-67,000 #COVID19 cases & 3,300-3,900 deaths, but ↑ cases in high-risk individuals can ↑ case fatality rate, leading to underprediction.
1/6 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: current epidemiology continues to
highlight regional differences. QC & ON account for 80% of confirmed cases,
but all province/territories, except Nunavut have reported COVID-19 cases.
2/6 Case counts for confirmed #COVID19 have more than doubled
since #GOC April 9 modelling briefing, which is largely attributable to increased case counts from Quebec, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, & Nova Scotia.
3/6 Current driving forces of #COVID19 in 🇨🇦involve outbreaks in long-term care & seniors’ homes & other congregate living/work settings, including shelters, correctional facilities & work site congregate housing.
1/8 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: outbreaks in vulnerable settings and underserved populations continue to drive the #epidemiology of COVID-19, reminding us of the critical importance of addressing inequities. #ProtecttheVulnerable
2/8 Warmer weather & longer days can make us feel a bit antsy, as we sympathise with the kids in the back seat who wearily ask – Are we there yet? Though we’re not quite, we are on the right track & getting closer all the time. #COVID19#KeepItUp
3/8 #COVID19 has exposed the fragility of circumstances for some populations – especially those living in long-term care homes or group housing + those experiencing homelessness or vulnerable indigenous communities. #ProtecttheVulnerable
1/9 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: We still face considerable challenges, including the need to extinguish ongoing outbreaks + we need to continue ramp up of testing to find/manage persistent chains of transmission in communities. #TestandTrace#CrushtheCurve
3/9 From discovery & genetic sequencing of the virus in January, to building our understanding of #COVID19 disease characteristics & spread through tried & true applied #epidemiology & #publichealth investigation, we’ve ↑ knowledge. #PlanktheCurve
3/6 We learned a hard lesson when the virus was introduced to long term care settings. Cases quickly accelerated into large outbreaks with devastating consequences that are now a driving force behind the #epidemiology of #COVID19 in 🇨🇦. #ProtecttheVulnerable#OlderAdults
1/8 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: Recovery & the question of what will be our new normal is on everybody’s mind right now. For now, we are still a ways off & as always, practicing #physicaldistancing is vitally important. #ProtecttheVulnerable
2/8 #Publichealth authorities are closely monitoring for continued and stable slowing of the #COVID19 epidemic in 🇨🇦, while carefully considering approaches to ease public health restrictions when & where this may be possible.
3/8 We cannot lose sight that this is a marathon and we are going to have to plan, pace ourselves and not take any sharp turns. Also, many unknowns remain and there is no 100% proven path to a new normal. #COVID19
1/5 Another feature of the #COVID19 outbreak in 🇨🇦to be aware of as we measure our progress, is the different character and intensity of spread depending on where you are in the country.
2/5 Across 🇨🇦, Canadians remain highly susceptible to #COVID19.
Though some areas of the country may experience epidemic slow down earlier than others, a range of #publichealth measures will still be needed everywhere.
3/5 But at this current critical juncture, intense #publichealth efforts are needed to stamp out all existing outbreaks, prevent new outbreaks and #testandtrace to find & manage remaining chains of transmission in the community. #COVID19
1/7 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: w\ slower epidemic growth, cases are not doubling as rapidly as they had been. However, due to a prolonged clinical course, deaths continue to climb as COVID-19 takes its devastating toll.
2/7 This creates a bit of a paradox: when early in an epidemic there is a rapid #ExponentialGrowth of new cases but a slower accumulation of deaths, so the calculated case fatality rate (CFR) is relatively low. #COVID19
3/7 Then just as things seem to be getting better with the epidemic growth rate slowing down, deaths begin to accumulate at a faster pace and the calculated case fatality rate (CFR) likewise increases. #COVID19 #ProtecttheVulnerable#OlderAdults