"It is too late for Putin to give up on the biggest undertaking of his career. He would rather die trying or try until he dies."

🧵THREAD on REP Director @eugene_rumer's latest must-read article and the implications for Ukraine.
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carnegieendowment.org/2022/12/09/put… "Lately, Putin has been described as unhinged and reckless... This article argues that his record suggests otherwise: he is calculating and deliberate, and he has pursued a long-term, consistent strategy at home and abroad."
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(all photos from Kremlin site)

THREAD New piece by longtime Russian foreign policy practitioner/expert Vladimir Frolov (@vfroloff) abt why Putin is resorting to nuclear brinksmanship at the very moment he faces humiliating setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine. 1/7

carnegieendowment.org/politika/88130 via @CEIP_Politika “[…] massive bombardments of Ukrainian cities & the allusion to the use of nuclear weapons are intended to motivate Kyiv &, in Putin’s words, its ‘true masters in the West’ to [agree to a] ceasefire & resume negotiations on Russia’s terms.” 2/7

THREAD 1/ Like Brezhnev’s aging Politburo’s decision to invade Afghanistan, the decision by Putin & his gerontocratic inner circle to launch a war in #Ukraine has become a disaster for Russia, writes Carnegie's
@AndrKolesnikov in @ForeignAffairs tinyurl.com/283hjn8z 2/ The Putin regime seems to regard the Russia people with nearly the same attitude that it does their Ukrainian counterparts, hence the closure of independent media outlets & research organizations, & the persecution of anyone who protests or even merely disagrees.

THREAD 1/ How can part of Russian society justify what happened in #Bucha? Read @AndrKolesnikov from this conversation with @albats and @samagreene 2/ It’s the phenomenon of self-justification: that part of Russian society doesn’t want to see itself as being on the side of evil. It wants to be on the good side, and that’s the one that is "liberating Ukraine from Nazism."

🧵 Central Asia has been wary of endorsing Russia's war in #Ukraine, but geographic isolation and continued dependence on Russia for export routes, security assistance, and labor markets make leaders reluctant to condemn Putin’s actions, @pstronski writes.
carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/30/com… Fearful Moscow might turn on Central Asia next, the region’s leaders have tried to hedge in ways Moscow may find irritating. For example, no Central Asian country sided with Moscow on UNGA resolutions condemning the invasion, by either abstaining or simply not voting at all.

🧵 Putin has evolved into an ever-higher-stakes gambler, growing increasingly more willing to take risks—because he believes doing so pays off.

"Putin has not become 'unhinged,' as some analysts have suggested," Chris Bort writes for @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai… Instead, Putin has learned from his previous foreign interventions—in Crimea and Syria—that boldness, surprise, and playing on his opponents' fears of wider conflict are key to achieving what he wants. It is dangerous to assume Putin's future actions will mirror his past ones.

Mini thread: 2020 has been a key year for #digital #surveillance in #Russia & elsewhere.
"The Russian authorities are increasingly looking at China's experience in isolating the internet & surveilling the activities of Russian users in cyberspace," says @LeonidKovachich 1/ However, "although Russia is looking at Chinese experience, Moscow is trying not to copy Chinese solutions, but to create some systems that exist in parallel and possibly compete with Chinese systems on the world market.” 2/

Think Russia’s relations with Europe are bad? Ukraine, Belarus, Navalnyy are part of a long, unhappy legacy shaped by Russian strategic culture, argue .@eugene_rumer and Richard Sokolsky in a recent Carnegie paper. 1/12

carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/08/etc… Geography, history, and elite consensus are the principal components of Russian strategic culture that explain Russia’s preoccupation and uneasy relationship with Europe. 2/12

THREAD 1/ For some background on what’s happening in #Belarus, where protesters have taken to the streets following yesterday’s presidential election, see these recent articles by @A_Shraibman and Maxim Samorukov: carnegie.ru/commentary/824… 2/ On the recent claims by Minsk that Moscow had sent mercenaries from the infamous Wagner Group into the country to stir up trouble ahead of the election: carnegie.ru/commentary/824…

THREAD 1/ We’re proud to present a series of articles examining how #coronavirus will impact #Russia’s foreign policy in the US, China, Europe, former Soviet states, Balkans, & Middle East. Contributions from @DmitriTrenin, @baunov, @AlexGabuev & more. tinyurl.com/y9mnkvad 2/ The pandemic has hastened the arrival of a new era of Sino-American bipolarity that is an obvious challenge to both Russia & Europe, creating an interest in exploring possibilities for improving their badly damaged relations, writes @baunov tinyurl.com/y9mnkvad

THREAD: In the latest installment of Carnegie’s #GlobalRussia series, Richard Sokolsky and Eugene Rumer peer around the corner from today’s highly antagonistic U.S.-Russian relationship and imagine what the relationship might look like in 2030. 1/14 carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/15/u.s… U.S.-Russian relations are at the lowest point since the Cold War with no signs of improvement. But that is unlikely to last forever. Global trends and domestic political dynamics in both countries will necessitate the resumption of dialogue between them. 2/14

THREAD: On July 1 Russians will vote on Putin’s attempt to appoint himself president for life. How are the demands of staying in power subverting his desire to strengthen the state and pulling the curtain back on the shadowy regime it coexists with? 1/10 ceip.org/p-82013 Many in the West continue to see #Putin as the symbol of 21st-century authoritarianism. In fact, the demands of staying in power continue to chip away at Putin’s state, explains Nathaniel Reynolds. 2/10

1/9 THREAD: In this new Carnegie paper, Tatiana @Stanovaya explains how the power transition will reshape the Russian establishment & impact both domestic & foreign policy. She presents a new system for classifying the Russian elite into five tiers: carnegie.ru/p-81037 2/9 The five tiers are: Putin’s personal retinue, Putin’s friends & associates, government technocrats, the regime’s “protectors,” & its implementers. The roles of these groups may evolve during the power transition, but their place in the order of things will stay the same.

THREAD 1/8 #Macron’s warm welcome of #Putin in southern France this week may have looked surprising to those who have been protesting against the Kremlin in Moscow in recent weeks. But Macron has his own agenda, explains @baunov. carnegie.ru/commentary/797… 2/8 The West has got used to protests in Moscow fizzling out, and so far, the protests are at a regional level. In any case, after 20 years at the helm, Putin and his government are the only authorities the international arena knows.

#Russia’s brand of exceptionalism is not messianic. It is rooted in the isolation of an Orthodox country and its belief that it possesses the gift of a true religious faith, writes @DmitriTrenin in this look at Russia’s changing identity.
carnegie.ru/commentary/795… Russia’s position in the global system has changed dramatically in the last 5 years. These changes have impacted on Russia’s identity, altered its borders, redefined its sense of nationhood, and produced a worldview wholly different from the tradition of the past 3 centuries.

THREAD: Carnegie Moscow Center digital director Gosha Birger discusses how #ChernobylHBO was received in Russia and how it accidentally exposed the mechanics of Russian propaganda. 1/ buzzfeednews.com/article/georgy… You might have heard that Russians loved #ChernobylHBO. Or you might have heard that Russians hated #ChernobylHBO. You are probably confused, and you should be. 2/